Rob Gronkowski's Updated Fantasy Outlook After Reported Trade to Tom Brady, Bucs

Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are teammates again...on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Just let that one roll around in your head for a minute. 

With the news Tuesday that Gronkowski was coming out of retirement and being traded by the New England Patriots along with a seventh-round pick to Tampa Bay in exchange a fourth-rounder, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, the obvious topic for fantasy football enthusiasts becomes what sort of impact he'll have next season. 

And...you might want to temper expectations. 

When last we saw Gronk, he didn't look great. He played in 13 games (starting 11) in the 2018 season, catching 47 passes for 682 yards and three touchdowns. He was beat up and worn down, and it wasn't exactly a huge surprise that he retired after that Super Bowl-winning season. 

Now, Gronk has had a year to rest and recuperate, which will benefit him. But he's also a year removed from being in football shape, and there remains plenty of uncertainty about when minicamps and training camp might occur given the COVID-19 pandemic. 

No doubt Gronk, who was listed at 6'6" and 268 pounds two years ago, will be working hard to return to football shape. But there aren't any guarantees the 30-year-old will resemble anything close to the player he was during his prime.

There's also the matter of the Buccaneers being absolutely loaded with talent in the passing game. 

Gronk may have a ton of familiarity with Brady, but he's still likely to be the No. 3 option in Tampa's passing game behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. And while it seems likely O.J. Howard will be dealt, if the 2017 first-round tight end stays in Tampa for another year, he's another player who could eat into Gronk's targets.

Granted, head coach Bruce Arians isn't afraid to air it out. The Buccaneers threw the ball 630 times last season, fourth in the NFL. There will be targets to go around if they keep that pace. And Gronkowski gives Brady a reliable and familiar target over the middle and in the red zone. There's no doubt he'll get his looks.

But it seems unlikely he'll produce at an elite level for fantasy owners. He's better off being regarded as a low-end TE1 with upside. But given his name recognition, it's likely he'll be over-drafted.

Don't fall into that trap. Players like Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews are far better options. Gronk is more likely to settle into the tier of players that includes Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee and Jared Cook.