Re-Grading the Biggest Blockbuster MLB Trades from Recent History
Every major MLB trade is judged instantly, especially in our modern age. The reality, however, is that many deals can't be accurately graded until years after the fact when we've had a chance to see how the players in question performed and panned out.
With that in mind, we'll set out to re-grade five of the biggest blockbuster swaps in recent years, narrowing our focus to deals consummated beginning in 2016. We didn't include every significant trade during that span, but these were the ones that involved the brightest, most decorated stars and that significantly impacted the clubs in question for better or worse.
First, we'll examine three especially notable incompletes: trades that occurred in 2019 or 2020 and can't be fairly graded with so much uncertainty swirling around the status of the current season.
The Incompletes: Betts and Price from Boston to Los Angeles and More
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Los Angeles Dodgers Acquire Mookie Betts and David Price from Boston Red Sox
Dodgers got: OF Mookie Betts, LHP David Price, cash
Red Sox got: OF Alex Verdugo, INF Jeter Downs, C/INF Connor Wong
Early take: This deal obviously hinges on what happens in 2020. Betts instantly gives the Dodgers an MVP-caliber threat in an already deep and potent lineup, but he'll be a free agent this winter.
If the COVID-19 pandemic cancels the '20 campaign, the Dodgers will have given up a quality, controllable young MLB outfielder in Verdugo and a pair of solid-upside prospects for, essentially, two seasons of a fading Price, who turns 35 in August and will make $32 million in 2021 and 2022 (half of it paid by Boston).
Texas Rangers Acquire Corey Kluber from Cleveland Indians
Rangers got: RHP Corey Kluber
Indians got: OF Delino DeShields, RHP Emmanuel Clase
Early take: The penny-pinching Indians dealt Kluber for salary relief as he's set to make $17.5 million with an $18 million club option for 2021 and a $1 million buyout. In return, the Tribe acquired slick-fielding but light-hitting outfielder Delino DeShields and hard-throwing reliever Emmanuel Clase.
The Rangers are hoping the 34-year-old Kluber can bounce back from a disastrous 2019 season in which he posted a 5.80 ERA and made just seven starts, ideally returning to something approaching his two-time American League Cy Young Award-winning form. If the 2020 season is canceled, or if it happens and Kluber struggles, Texas will be faced with a tough choice on that 2021 option.
Houston Astros Acquire Zack Greinke from Arizona Diamondbacks
Astros got: RHP Zack Greinke, cash
Diamondbacks got: 1B Seth Beer, RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Corbin Martin, INF Josh Rojas
Unlike the other two trades listed here, which went down this offseason, we have some early returns on this one.
The Astros acquired Greinke from the D-backs at the 2019 trade deadline in the hope he'd join their already strong starting staff and lead them to a second title in three years. The 'Stros ended up losing the World Series in seven games (and then, um, other stuff happened). Greinke pitched well for Houston, posting a 3.02 ERA in 10 regular-season starts and putting up a 2.45 ERA in 11 Fall Classic innings.
The Astros, however, gave up three of their top five prospects in Beer, Bukauskas and Corbin.
Greinke will make $35 million ($10.33 million paid by Arizona) in 2020 and 2021. If the Astros get two productive years out of him, it could be worth it, especially since they lost ace Gerrit Cole to the New York Yankees in free agency. If the 2020 season is wiped out, though, Houston will have given up an awful lot for a portion of the 2019 campaign and 2021, when Greinke will be 37.
White Sox Swap Chris Sale to Red Sox
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Boston Red Sox got: LHP Chris Sale
Chicago White Sox got: RHP Michael Kopech, INF Yoan Moncada, OF Luis Alexander Basabe and RHP Victor Diaz
When the Boston Red Sox opened the prospect vault and acquired left-hander Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox in Dec. 2016, they were looking for an ace to help them win another title. And that's exactly what they got.
Sale combined for 372.1 innings and a 2.56 ERA in his first two seasons with Boston, and the Red Sox hoisted a Commissioner's Trophy in 2018.
Hard-throwing Michael Kopech and infielder Yoan Moncada each got off to rocky starts with the White Sox. Moncada led both leagues with 217 strikeouts in his first full season in 2018, and Kopech battled elbow problems that led to Tommy John surgery.
But Moncada broke out in 2019 with 25 home runs and a .915 OPS for Chicago, while Kopech is on the mend and has staff-leading stuff, including a radar-gun-singeing heater.
Sale, meanwhile, posted a career-worst 4.40 ERA for Boston in 2019 and underwent Tommy John surgery in March. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, the 31-year-old southpaw will be out until near the end of the 2021 season or the beginning of 2022. The Red Sox owe him $30 million in '21 and '22 and $27.5 million in 2023 and 2024 with a $20 million vesting option in 2025.
Translation: They'll be paying him boatloads of money as he enters his mid-30s, and he may never be anything like the pitcher he once was.
The Red Sox probably wouldn't take this one back because of that '18 ring. But assuming Moncada and Kopech turn into stars for the ChiSox, they came out golden on this one. You could call it a win-win, but we're thinking Chicago won by a little more.
Red Sox's Grade: B
White Sox's Grade: A
Miami Trades Christian Yelich to Milwaukee
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Milwaukee Brewers got: OF Christian Yelich
Miami Marlins got: OF Lewis Brinson, OF Monte Harrison, INF Isan Diaz and RHP Jordan Yamamoto
This one stings in hindsight for the Miami Marlins.
Yes, they were in full-on firesale mode prior to the 2018 season, looking to unload veterans and stock up on prospects.
But after they dealt outfielder Christian Yelich to the Milwaukee Brewers in Jan. 2018, he proceeded to hit a then-career-best 36 home runs and lead the National League with a .326 average and 1.000 OPS en route to an NL MVP Award. Last year, before a knee injury ended his season in September, he cracked 44 homers and hit .329 with a 1.100 OPS.
He's just 28 years old and will make $12.5 million in 2020 and $14 million in 2021 before a contract extension kicks in that will pay him $26 million annually through at least 2028. It's a just reward for what he's done with the Brew Crew—and for what he's likely to keep doing.
As for the Fish, their haul has been a mixed bag.
Brinson has slashed .189/.238/.294 in 184 games with Miami, while Harrison was good but not great during his ascension to Triple-A in 2019. He struck out 215 times in 136 games at Double-A in 2018. Diaz hit .305 with a .578 slugging percentage at Triple-A last season but managed to hit just .173 with a .307 slugging percentage in 201 big league plate appearances.
All three will be given a chance to be a part of the Marlins' future. But right now, this swap looks like highway robbery for Milwaukee.
Brewers' Grade: A+
Marlins' Grade: D
Dodgers Rent Manny Machado from Orioles
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Los Angeles Dodgers get: INF Manny Machado
Baltimore Orioles get: OF Yusniel Diaz, RHP Dean Kremer, 3B Rylan Bannon, RHP Zach Pop and 3B Breyvic Valera
See if this sounds familiar: The Los Angeles Dodgers tried to seal their World Series chances by renting a superstar headed for free agency. They did so with Betts and Boston in February, and they did so in July 2018 with Manny Machado and the Baltimore Orioles.
Machado hit .273 with an .825 OPS in 66 regular-season games for L.A. But he went just 4-for-22 without an extra-base hit in the World Series and was criticized at times for his lack of hustle. Machado then signed a mega-deal with the San Diego Padres, and that was all for him and the Dodgers.
As for Baltimore, it probably could have gotten more if it had traded Machado over the winter or even during the previous season. This was a team going nowhere but the division basement, and it made no sense to wait until the 11th hour. That said, two of the prospects the O's netted in the deal rank among their current top 10, per MLB.com: Diaz (No. 5) and Kremer (No. 8).
Credit the Dodgers for being bold even if it didn't quite pan out, and credit the Orioles for finally biting the bullet and shipping away Machado even if they waited too long to do so.
Dodgers' Grade: C+
Orioles' Grade: C-
Astros Acquire Justin Verlander from Tigers, Gerrit Cole from Pirates
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We know these are technically two trades that happened at different times, but they're almost impossible to separate from each other.
Both involve prying veteran aces away from losing franchises and watching them explode in Houston. And without both deals, the Astros almost surely wouldn't have won two AL pennants and a World Series between 2017 and 2019.
Let's take them one at a time in chronological order.
Houston Astros get: RHP Justin Verlander, OF Juan Ramirez
Detroit Tigers get: OF Daz Cameron, RHP Franklin Perez and C Jake Rogers
The 2017 trade deadline had come and gone, and the Tigers still hadn't traded right-hander Justin Verlander despite being headed for a 98-loss season. But as the clock ticked down on the Aug. 31 waiver deadline (which was still a thing then), Verlander waived his no-trade clause and accepted a swap to the 'Stros.
He posted a 1.06 ERA in five regular-season starts with the Astros and helped them win a title in '17. The following year, he led the AL with 290 strikeouts. Then in 2019, he paced baseball with 223 innings pitched, fanned 300 and beat out rotation mate Gerrit Cole to win his second career AL Cy Young Award.
Verlander turned 37 in February but is showing zero signs of slowing down and is signed for $33 million in 2020 and '21.
As for the Tigers' return? Cameron has hit just .214 in two seasons at Triple A. Perez has battled injuries and threw just 7.3 MiLB innings in 2019. Rogers made his big league debut in 2019, but he hit .125 in 128 plate appearances and might be a backup at best.
Astros' Grade: A
Tigers' Grade: D
Houston Astros get: RHP Gerrit Cole
Pittsburgh Pirates get: RHP Joe Musgrove, 3B Colin Moran, RHP Michael Feliz and OF Jason Martin
In 2017, Gerrit Cole posted a career-worst 4.26 ERA for the Pittsburgh Pirates, though he did throw a workmanlike 203 innings. In Jan. 2018, they dealt him to Houston.
He went full Verlander.
During his first season with the Astros, Cole posted a 2.88 ERA and led MLB with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings. In 2019, he led the AL with a 2.50 ERA and again paced both leagues with 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
That second season earned him a second-place Cy Young finish and, this offseason, a massive free-agency payday from the New York Yankees. Still, the 'Stros clearly got some bang for their trade buck.
As for the Pirates, they were forced to watch as Cole blossomed into the fully formed ace he looked like in flashes during five seasons in Pittsburgh. Musgrove has been a decent addition to their starting staff, but none of the players the Bucs landed have had a massive impact on a low-budget team that obviously wasn't going to be able to extend Cole but should have gotten more in a trade.
Astros' Grade: A
Pirates' Grade: D-
Marlins Send Giancarlo Stanton to Yankees
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New York Yankees get: OF Giancarlo Stanton, cash
Miami Marlins get: 2B Starlin Castro, RHP Jorge Guzman and SS Jose Devers
The biggest headline from the Marlins' pre-2018 season fire sale came when they dealt then-reigning NL MVP and generational slugger Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees. Stanton in pinstripes, smashing moon shots at Yankee Stadium for the Bronx Bombers. It seemed too perfect.
In his first season with New York, Stanton struggled at times but finished with 38 home runs and 100 RBI. Then, in 2019, he was limited by injury to just 18 games. The 30-year-old can opt out of his contract after the 2020 season, whether the season happens or not.
Assuming he doesn't opt out, he's signed for $25 million to $32 million annually through 2027, though the Marlins will have to pay the Yankees $30 million if Stanton stays put. Either way, that's lot of coin for a slugger entering his 30s who has yet to translate his South Beach success to New York.
As for the Marlins, Guzman has shown strikeout stuff and rose to Double-A in 2019. Devers hit .322 while rising from rookie ball to High-A as a 19-year-old last year. They could be key pieces of Miami's rebuild.
Considering Stanton has a no-trade clause, it wasn't as if Miami could incite a full-scale bidding war. And it absolutely needed to shed Stanton's contract if it had an intention of winning any time soon.
It seemed as if the Yanks were bullying the Marlins at the time. A veteran infielder and two OK prospects for an MVP...and the Fish threw in money?
Now, with Stanton coming off a lost season and Guzman and Devers looking like cost-controlled MLB pieces of the future, the picture is more complicated.
Yankees' Grade: C-
Marlins' Grade: C+
