Fantasy Baseball 2020: Most Overrated, Underrated Draft Options at Key Positions

A delayed start to the MLB season means more time to research and prepare for your fantasy baseball draft. 

It's a good thing too, because nailing the draft is crucial to sustained success. Every round comes with serious pitfalls and chances at glory. If you took a chance on the potential of Ketel Marte last season, you know all about that glory. If you drafted Jose Ramirez in the first round last season, well, you probably had a bad time. 

But 2020 has arrived, and it's time for most fantasy managers to start anew. Looking across the Yahoo average draft positions, there are definitely some values to be had. 

Below is a look at some of the key positions you'll need to nail to be competitive in 2020, with an overrated option and underrated option for each. It's important to note that overrated doesn't mean they will be an abject failure. It only means they aren't likely to live up to their draft spot. 

Likewise, an underrated prospect isn't necessarily going to light the world on fire. They should just outperform their current draft position. 

Starting Pitcher

Choosing when to target your ace can be tricky. The elite options start coming off the board in the first round, but that means you miss out on adding an elite hitter. 

Whether you like to grab one of these true aces or not, it's key to know what you are getting yourself into. Take an overrated option, and your team ERA, WHIP and strikeout numbers can go in the tank. Conversely, waiting too long could see your pitching numbers suffer.

Nail this pick and you could have more draft capital to spend beefing up your hitting while still getting good production from your pitcher. 

Overrated: Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 134.1, 12th round

At this point, Bumgarner is likely drafted higher than he should be based on name value alone. The four-time All-Star is moving on from the San Francisco Giants after 11 seasons with the club, and the move from the confines of Oracle Park should come with a fairly large dip in value. 

Bumgarner's home and away splits last season tell a story of a pitcher who received a big boost from his pitcher-friendly park. At home, he was 6-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. When he pitched on the road, he sported a 3-7 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. 

Now, Bumgarner goes from pitching in the second-most pitcher-friendly park to the third-worst in the league, per FantasyPros. According to FanGraphs, Bumgarner's ground-ball rate was a career-low 38 percent. In a new hitter-friendly park, that rate could have a higher impact on his bottom line.

The change in scenery is a concern for Bumgarner, but so is his health. While the 30-year-old was able to remain healthy and make a career-high 34 starts last season, he only made 38 starts combined in the two previous seasons. 

Let someone else take the risk on Bumgarner continuing his current numbers and health in his age-30 season in a new park. 

Underrated: David Price, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 150.6, 13th round

David Price is going one round after Bumgarner on average but offers a lot more upside. Mookie Betts was the headliner of the Dodgers' offseason acquisitions, but Price is expected to be another Boston transplant to play a large role. 

First, let's address the downside of Price. He's an obvious injury risk. He only made 22 starts for the Red Sox last season as he dealt with an injured wrist. At 34 years old, his age and injury history pose the same risk as Bumgarner. 

The numbers provide optimism for a bounce-back season, though. Despite the injury, he posted a career-high 10.73 strikeouts per nine innings last season and had a 3.24 ERA in the first half before injuries wrecked his season. 

Now Price gets to move cross-country to Dodger Stadium—the seventh-most pitcher-friendly ballpark. He'll obviously be the beneficiary of strong run support too with the Dodgers expected to have the best lineup in baseball. 

Price comes with risk. Most pitchers do in this range of the draft, but he also comes with tremendous upside, as a healthy version of the southpaw in Los Angeles could offer big dividends in strikeouts, ERA and wins. 

Relief Pitcher

Getting good value out of relief pitchers can be a league-winner in a traditional 5x5 roto setup. While saves are the obvious target here, adding a quality setup man who can eventually get you some saves while propping up your combined ERA and WHIP is a strong strategy. The pitfall to avoid is overpaying for saves when many closer situations are volatile and can often be found late in the draft or on the waiver wire. 

Overrated: Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 95.3, 8th round

It's easy to understand why Jansen is generally the fifth closer off the board. He's been entrenched as the Dodgers closer for years, and they figure to be one of the best teams in the league. It's not hard to envision him leading the league in saves next season. 

But there's still a level of risk that isn't reflected by his average draft position: Jansen's ERA of 3.71 wasn't great when compared to others among the league leaders in saves last season. 

Also a concern is Jansen's dwindling velocity. His cutter was down 1.3 mph from his career average, while his sinker and slider are also seeing diminishing returns, per FanGraphs. 

If Jansen maintains the closer role, he's obviously going to be a value in saves and strikeouts, but the relatively high ERA and potential for declining stuff is cause for concern at his current price. 

Add in the fact that the Dodgers have a capable closer-in-waiting in Blake Treinen, and there's too much risk for Jansen where he's being drafted. 

Underrated: Will Smith, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 177.7, 15th round

It's never a bad idea to grab a middle reliever who will likely get save opportunities and help out your ERA and WHIP in the process. 

That's exactly what you're getting with Will Smith. The Braves' new setup man comes from San Francisco, where he was the closer last season and racked up 34 saves. Don't expect that total again this season, but there's a good chance he ends up becoming the closer at some point, and he gives you value in the interim. 

Mark Melancon is expected to be the closer, but he had a lower strikeout rate, higher ERA, higher WHIP and lower save conversion percentage than Smith last season. There's a reason Melancon's ADP is one round lower than Smith's. 

Everyone knows Smith is the better pitcher, and if the Braves figure that out sooner rather than later, Smith could be an absolute steal. 

Catcher

Catcher is always a difficult position to navigate. The lack of productive options creates a positional scarcity akin to tight ends in fantasy football. Is it worth it to take one of the elite options early or best to just wait on a high-upside option later?

That's a key question that must be navigated. Finding a steal at the position could create a big advantage, while overpaying for a disappointing option is the kind of pick that dooms a team. 

Overrated: Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 115, 10th round

Willson Contreras is the fourth catcher coming off draft boards. That's understandable after his 2019 campaign saw him hit a career-high 24 home runs with 64 RBI while batting .264. 

However, betting on him to repeat it could be a disappointing wager, primarily because the Cubs have another catcher in Victor Caratini who figures to steal some of Contreras' opportunities. 

While FantasyPros has no problem predicting that Contreras will still reach 20 home runs, 50 runs and 60 RBI, FanGraphs' outlook is a little less rosy (17 home runs, 50 runs and 58 RBI). 

While Contreras' track record as one of the few catchers with legit power is tempting, you're better off waiting on a less-proven catcher with upside later in the draft. 

Underrated: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

It's hard to call a six-time All-Star underrated, but Perez is being drafted as the seventh catcher, and four rounds after Contreras, despite a top-three ceiling. 

Perez missed all of last season with UCL damage and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, but drafting a catcher in later rounds is about upside. 

The FanGraphs projection is much higher on Perez (27 home runs, 78 RBI and a .250 batting average). Certainly, the delayed start to the season should be helpful for Perez, who will now get additional time to get healthy before the beginning of the season. 

In a position where anyone with offensive potential tends to get over-drafted, Perez is the rare option with proven ability if you're willing to take the risk.