Ranking the NFL's 5 Most Likely Players to Hold Out of the 2020 Season

Welcome to the NFL's holdout season. 

While the draft commands the top headlines, several star players are set to sit out in hopes of landing a new deal. This is especially notable during a unique offseason in which the NFL could delay or carve up the summer process in response to the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, the league and players' association have already agreed to a voluntary virtual offseason period. 

Disgruntled stars, players vastly outperforming contracts and more headline the list of potential holdouts going into 2020. Some holdouts will get a player paid, as Ezekiel Elliott's did. Others, like Melvin Gordon's, won't, as technicalities such as accrued seasons or lost staring contests backfire. 

We've ranked the top five most likely holdout candidates in 2020 based on performance relative to contract, positional importance and more—as well as the chance the star has of forcing a team's hand.

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5. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Joe Mixon of the Cincinnati Bengals probably isn't the first running back who comes to mind when dreaming up players at the position who could hold out.

But the 2018 AFC leading rusher has a case. 

Over three years, Mixon has averaged 4.2 yards per carry, scored 17 rushing touchdowns and posted consecutive 1,100-yard seasons. He's also caught 108 of his 134 targets, adding 870 yards and four scores there. He's picked up 193 first downs via all the touches.

Normally, these wouldn't register as the most impressive running back numbers, but context matters. Mixon has reliably done his damage behind one of the worst lines in football in each of his three seasons while also serving as the focal point of a defense's attention with receiver A.J. Green often hurt and quarterback Andy Dalton ineffective. 

This would help explain why the Bengals anticipate a holdout, according to Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic. Mixon, who has one year and $1.2 million left on his deal, would have a decent argument too. Cincinnati has opened its checkbook as one of free agency's most active teams—and it also figures to give Green an extension and is otherwise paying up on his franchise tag.

A Mixon holdout can't drag on too long, or he'll run the risk of harming his case for getting to market at a later date, but one of the league's most overlooked backs has a valid reason for using what time he has.  

4. Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

A year ago, Jacksonville Jaguars edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue didn't find much traction with a holdout. 

This year is different. 

The Jaguars hit Ngakoue with a franchise tag, but he has yet to sign it. And a trade would be much more complicated than it seems. Not only do the Jaguars have to find worthwhile compensation, but the pass-rushing star also has to agree to a move by signing the tag—and likely with the understanding his next team will give him the big-money extension he desires. 

So it's no easy task. But Ngakoue has already stressed publicly he won't commit to the Jaguars for the long-term. If a move doesn't happen, this will only continue. 

Ngakoue, still 25, has 37.5 sacks over four seasons and has 78 total pressures over the last two years. He's also missed just one game since 2016. The Jaguars clearly think he's worth the hefty franchise tag cost ($17.8 million).

Ngakoue would rank higher, but the odds seem strong he'll get moved once the Jaguars balk at the idea of extending this drama further and move him for draft assets. 

3. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Butch Dill/Associated Press

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has a better holdout case than most running backs. 

The 2017 third-round pick is set to play on a paltry $2.4 million cap hit in 2020, the final year of his rookie deal, but has already rushed for 2,408 yards and 27 touchdowns while averaging five yards per carry over three seasons. He's also caught 243 of his 302 targets for another 2,068 yards and 10 scores, averaging 8.5 yards per reception. 

Why stop there? We're looking at 241 first downs and an 80.5 career catch percentage—and 400-plus yards after contact and 550-plus yards after catch during each of the last two seasons. 

The positional-value argument with running backs doesn't work on the 24-year-old. Elsewhere in the NFC South, Carolina hit Christian McCaffrey with a four-year, $64 million extension, and he's another back with 90-plus targets in every season. Difference being, McCaffrey was getting even more usage because he wasn't working in an offense with a guy named Michael Thomas. 

At Kamara's age and usage rate, there's little reason to think he'll suddenly stop winning on his routes and making plays once the ball is in his hands. That, plus his production, probably takes the two parties to holdout territory.     

2. Joey Bosa, DL, Los Angeles Chargers

Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press

Unlike in the Gordon situation, the Los Angeles Chargers won't be able to stall and hope a Joey Bosa holdout goes away. 

Bosa, set to make $14.4 million in 2020 during the fifth year of his rookie deal, continues to play at a Hall of Fame pace. He's in rare company with 40 sacks over his first 50 games. In a league where Frank Clark gets $104 million for just 35 sacks over four seasons, Bosa is underpaid. 

Keep in mind he is still just 24 years old and played all 16 games in 2019, quieting any concerns about a foot injury that limited him to seven contests in 2018. 

Despite the missed time, Bosa has posted 201 total tackles, 53 tackles for loss, 82 quarterback hits and a grade of 86-plus at Pro Football Focus in three of his four seasons. 

With a big cap commitment to quarterback Philip Rivers gone, the Chargers don't have a ton of justification for not getting something done with Bosa. He also has lots of leverage and happens to share an agent with Aaron Donald, who held out under similar circumstances and got his big-money extension from the Los Angeles Rams in August 2018.

1. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

A Dak Prescott holdout is an eventuality. 

The Dallas Cowboys unearthed a franchise passer in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, and instead of paying up to keep him long term, they slapped an exclusive-rights franchise tag on him—and previously worked out long-term deals with Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott and DeMarcus Lawrence. 

While the tag will pay Prescott roughly $28.7 million in 2020, he's already planning to hold out of the team's virtual offseason, according to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio.

Prescott has all the leverage. The Cowboys have tied up droves of cash in stars while rebooting the coaching staff under Mike McCarthy, and they risk upsetting and/or losing a franchise quarterback. 

Prescott, who'll turn 27 in July, is smack in the middle of his prime and boasts 15,778 passing yards, 97 touchdowns and just 36 interceptions over four seasons—and he hasn't missed a game. He's sitting on a career touchdown percentage of 4.7, has tallied 782 first downs through the air and last year ballooned his yards per attempt to a career-high 8.2. Don't forget his career 5.1 yards per carry, 19.1 rushing yards per game and 99 first downs on 241 carries. 

The Cowboys have until mid-July to get a multiyear deal done with Prescott, and the pact will probably need to check in at or above Russell Wilson's average annual value of $35 million. If not, Dallas could have a big problem on its hands. 

Salary figures via Spotrac unless otherwise noted.