Joe Burrow Is 'High-Risk Guy' for No. 1 Pick in 2020 NFL Draft, Says NFC Coach

It is widely believed that the Cincinnati Bengals will make LSU quarterback Joe Burrow the top overall pick in next week's draft after his epic 2019 season, especially because many consider him the best signal-caller available. 

But at least one NFC coach believes he's being widely overvalued, per Tom Pelissero of NFL.com:

"Said an NFC coach: 'He ends up with a pro coach (Joe Brady) in a really good system with the best players. He's a great processor and he is everything I'd want in a quarterback—if I took him in the second or third round. He's not a natural thrower, can't really pump it down the field. Now, he can throw it back-shoulder and uncovered and he's got anticipation, but that ball's wobbling. Love him, but I think he's a high-risk guy at 1.'"

Another NFC scout added that Burrow's physical traits affected his draft stock, at least before last season. 

"There's a lot of scouts out there lying their asses off about where they had him last year, because there's no f--king way you could've put that (2018) tape on and thought he was better than a late-round pick," the scout said. "And good for Joe. He's got the right makeup. You saw his leadership. You saw his mental toughness."

Burrow put up otherworldly numbers in his senior season, throwing for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns and just six interceptions while completing 76.3 percent of his passes. He also won basically every award available to him, including the Heisman Trophy, the Davey O'Brien Award, the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, the Maxwell Award and the Walter Camp Player of the Year Award, among others. 

Most importantly of all, he led LSU to a national championship. 

Add it all up, and Burrow became the presumed choice for the Cincinnati Bengals. Burrow also spent part of his childhood in Ohio, making the narrative all the more perfect for the quarterback-needy Bengals. 

And while Burrow may not have elite arm strength, his leadership qualities, intelligence and accuracy make up for it. One AFC quarterbacks coach said that his accuracy "jumps off the film. He can throw it into a tight window. He can offset throw versus tight coverage. He can throw the hole shot. He doesn't have a huge arm. He really kind of crow-hops into big balls," per Pelissero.

An NFC coordinator added: 

"Burrow's one of the best prospects that I've seen personally. Just his confidence, his knowledge, he's unbelievable. [LSU] had a good system. They had dudes all over the field. It was a perfect storm. But so much of the game of the quarterback is played above the neck, and there's no doubt he has that. And he played his best at the biggest games."

Look around the NFL, and it's hard to find a quarterback without at least some limitations. Drew Brees and Russell Wilson are considered short for the position. Tom Brady is downright slow. Lamar Jackson has had to improve his accuracy. Patrick Mahomes is about as close to a quarterback without weaknesses as you'll ever find, and even he's prone to Brett Favre-ian moments of swashbuckling recklessness that make you wonder how he doesn't throw more interceptions. 

The point is that Burrow's lack of arm strength doesn't necessarily sentence him to disappointment. But it does appear to be a weakness he'll have to overcome by leaning into his other strengths.