NHL Free Agency 2020: Predictions for Braden Holtby, Top Goalies

Braden Holtby has only played for the Washington Capitals in his NHL career, but there is a chance that changes during free agency.

The development of Ilya Samsonov combined with Holtby's potential contract demands could force the Eastern Conference side to move on from its long-time goalie. If that is the case, the 30-year-old netminder would one of the most coveted free agents alongside Taylor Hall, Alex Pietrangelo and Torey Krug.

If teams can't afford Holtby, they could look to Jacob Markstrom or Robin Lehner, who have boosted their respective stocks with their play in the Western Conference this season.

Predictions for Top Free-Agent Goalies

Braden Holtby

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Holtby has been an important piece to Washington's success during his time with the team, but his numbers have decreased in the past few seasons.

His win total has dropped in each season since he produced 48 victories during the 2015-16 campaign (although he hasn't started as many as the 66 games he logged that year). He has 25 in 48 appearances in 2019-20. What's more, Holtby possesses the worst save percentage (.897) and goals-against average (3.11) of his career.

He has had a save percentage more than .907 and a GAA under 2.99 in every one of his NHL seasons to date.

Those numbers, Samsonov's growing presence in net and Washington's lack of salary-cap space could signal the end of Holtby's tenure in D.C.

The 23-year-old Russian has 16 wins in 22 starts, a .913 save percentage and a 2.55 goals-against average.

Samsonov is set to make $925,000 next season, which is important since the Capitals are scheduled to pay seven players more than $5 million.

Holtby is earning $5 million this season after he inked a five-year, $30,500,000 deal with Washington in 2015. The Capitals are projected to have $14 million in salary-cap space for next season, and if they re-sign Holtby, he would likely account for a good chunk of that money.

If Washington puts faith in Samsonov, it would open up a decent market for Holtby that could include the Buffalo Sabres, San Jose Sharks and Edmonton Oilers, among others.

Buffalo has struggled to find a consistent hand in net between Linus Ullmark and Carter Hutton this term, and it has the third-most cap space available in the offseason. San Jose does not have as much money to spend, but it needs an upgrade over Martin Jones and Aaron Dell. Edmonton, meanwhile, could be in the market for a netminder if it does not re-sign Mike Smith, but it is not in as dire straits as the Sabres or Sharks.

Although Buffalo is not in position to make a playoff push, the addition of Holtby and a few other free agents to partner with Jack Eichel could be the catalyst for the surge up the standings it desperately needs.

Prediction: Holtby leaves Washington, signs with Buffalo.

Jacob Markstrom

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Markstrom has put himself in good position to earn a decent-sized deal.

The 30-year-old Swede has 23 victories and is working on a career-best save percentage of .918 for the Vancouver Canucks.

Vancouver could be in a good position to re-sign Markstrom, which would give it an experienced piece in net to pair with a young promising core. The eight players with the most points on the Canucks roster are all 27 or younger, and six of them are under contract for next season, while Jake Virtanen and Adam Gaudette are restricted free agents.

To retain Markstrom, Vancouver will have to pay more than the $11 million over three years they dished out for his current deal. An annual average value of $5 million-$6 million would make sense for both parties, as would a three-year deal.

While Markstrom may want more in terms of length, his age could be a factor in securing a fourth or fifth year.

Prediction: Markstrom re-signs with Vancouver.

Robin Lehner

John Locher/Associated Press

If Markstrom stays in Vancouver, Lehner could be the alternative to Holtby for teams looking to solidify their goalkeeping situation.

It seems unlikely that the 28-year-old would stay with the Vegas Golden Knights for the long term with Marc-Andre Fleury still under contract for two years. Because of Fleury's situation, it would make sense if Lehner were just a rental for the Golden Knights, who acquired him from the Chicago Blackhawks at the trade deadline.

Lehner has put together a .920 save percentage and 2.89 GAA in 36 combined contests for both franchises this term, and he could fetch a decent amount of money on the free-agent market.

Two of his former clubs, the Sabres and Ottawa Senators, could be in the goalie market, and both have a ton of salary cap space to work with. If a reunion in those spots is not in the cards, Lehner would still have plenty of options, including the Detroit Red Wings and Colorado Avalanche.

Colorado could be an intriguing destination for many free agents since it has the fifth-most cap space and is in position to contend for a championship. But the Avalanche could look to other positions to improve their roster since Pavel Francouz and Philipp Grubauer are both under contract until at least 2021.

Francouz has 21 wins with a .923 save percentage and a 2.41 GAA, while Grubauer owns 18 victories, a .916 save percentage and a 2.63 GAA.

Detroit is not as intriguing because of its struggles this season, but it has almost $40 million in cap space, a nice young core and the best odds to land Alexis Lafreniere with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NHL draft.

Lehner is a younger and better option than Jonathan Bernier, who is 15-22-3 in net this season, and he could provide the Red Wings with some much-needed stability.

Prediction: Lehner lands with Detroit.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Hockey Reference. Contract information obtained from Spotrac.