Joe Burrow, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd's Fantasy Outlook After Bengals Draft LSU QB

The Cincinnati Bengals selected LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the top overall pick of the 2020 NFL draft, as expected. 

But the question for fantasy football players is how much of an impact Burrow will have immediately on players like A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd, among others. And what sort of impact will Burrow have himself?

It isn't the easiest question to answer. On one hand, the team drafted Andy Dalton's (who was released on Thursday, per Adam Schefter of ESPN) replacement for a reason. It was time to upgrade. On the other, quarterback is arguably the most mentally demanding position in sports, so it can be a huge adjustment.

Let's take a quick look at the numbers for the top receivers on teams that started a rookie quarterback for at least 10 games in the past three years. 

• Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears: Top wideout was Kendall Wright (59 receptions for 614 yards and one score).
• DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns: Top wideout was Ricardo Lewis (27 catches for 357 yards).

• Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns: Top wideout was Jarvis Landry (81 receptions for 976 yards and four scores).
• Sam Darnold, New York Jets: Top wideout was Robby Anderson (50 catches for 752 yards and six touchdowns).
• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Top wideout was Zay Jones (56 receptions for 752 yards and seven scores). 
• Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals: Top wideout was Larry Fitzgerald (69 catches for 734 yards and six touchdowns). 

• Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: Top wideout was Larry Fitzgerald (75 receptions for 804 yards and four scores).
• Daniel Jones, New York Giants: Top wideout was Darius Slayton (48 catches for 740 yards and eight touchdowns). 
• Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars: Top wideout was DJ Chark Jr. (73 receptions for 1,008 yards and eight scores).

Those numbers aren't great, though there are a few caveats. Arguably the two best rookie quarterbacks of the past three years were Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. Neither started at least 10 games their rookie seasons, however, excluding them from consideration. And most of the players listed had pretty poor options at wideout. 

But the point of this exercise was to show that rookie quarterbacks can have an adverse effect on receivers as they learn the ropes. A veteran player like Green, who has played in just nine games the past two years due to injury, is probably looking at Fitzgerald-esque numbers at this point. 

Granted, after his incredible season at LSU, Burrow should be better than many of the players listed above. But Green has spent his entire career with Dalton, and adjusting to Burrow won't happen overnight. Green's pedigree keeps him in WR3 territory, but don't expect him to return to elite fantasy status. 

Boyd is a more interesting case. He's posted consecutive seasons over 1,000 receiving yards, doing so last year with Dalton and Ryan Finley under center. Unlike Green, he's in his prime and might just be Cincy's top player at the position at this point. 

The uncertainties surrounding Burrow keep him in the WR3 range as well, but his upside is higher than Green's heading into 2020. He could be a value pick for your team, especially if you believe in Burrow translating immediately to the pro game. 

As for Burrow, he's a risky addition as anything more than a QB2. The rookie quarterbacks who generally make the biggest impacts are the ones who do so in the run game. Burrow is athletic, but he won't have the impact of a Jackson, Allen or Murray on the ground. 

Last season among rookies, only Murray finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. In 2018, none of the rookie quarterbacks finished in the top 10. Ditto for 2017.

It's possible that Burrow could be an outlier. He had one of the most amazing college seasons in recent memory. But you'd be wise to have insurance at quarterback if you select him.