1 MLB Team from Every Division That Will Be Worse Than You Think in 2020
Now that we've presented our picks for Major League Baseball teams that will beat expectations in 2020, it's only fair that we turn the coin over for a look at the other side.
So, we've picked out one team from each division that won't beat expectations this year. Some simply don't look equipped to live up to their reputations as contenders. We also picked on a couple non-contenders who could be even worse than they're getting credit for.
To be sure, when the 2020 season will begin and how long it will last are still very much up in the air because of the coronavirus crisis. As with our better-than-you-think picks, still another caveat is that we're perhaps taking it for granted that people have some level of optimism about the teams on this list.
Regardless, we'll begin in the American League East and end in the National League West.
AL East: Boston Red Sox
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When the Boston Red Sox still had Mookie Betts, David Price and a seemingly healthy iteration of Chris Sale, they looked no worse than a wild-card contender for 2020.
But now Betts and Price are with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Sale needs Tommy John surgery. Expectations for the Red Sox have been lowered accordingly, yet probably not low enough.
Sans Betts, their offense is down to three very good hitters (J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts) and then question marks of varying sizes. Unless those question marks yield pleasant surprises, the Red Sox won't hang with the AL's top offensive clubs.
Their pitching staff doesn't have the, well, staff to pick up the slack. With Price and Sale out of the picture, Eduardo Rodriguez is Boston's only truly viable starter. Its bullpen, meanwhile, is still built on the same guys who had a penchant for blowing leads in 2019.
Just two years after they won 108 games and the World Series, these Red Sox will be lucky to salvage even a .500 record.
AL Central: Kansas City Royals
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The Minnesota Twins are rightly regarded as a World Series contender. We think people are sleeping on the Cleveland Indians, though that's arguably also the case with the Chicago White Sox.
As such, our options for the AL Central are to punch at one of two pieces of low-hanging fruit. We'll take the Kansas City Royals, on account of how they look even worse than the Detroit Tigers.
This wasn't the case last year, wherein the Royals won 12 more games than the Tigers even as they suffered 103 defeats. But courtesy of the additions of C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop and the looming promotions of some exciting pitching prospects, there's actually hope on the horizon in Detroit.
In Kansas City, not so much. The Royals offense and pitching look no better than the units that ranked 14th and 11th in the AL in runs scored and runs allowed in 2019. They also have a lesser farm system than the Tigers, and its best player (Bobby Witt Jr.) is still a couple years away.
In short, the Royals look like a last-place team.
AL West: Texas Rangers
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The AL West still looks like the domain of the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics, though the Los Angeles Angels have the goods to at least make both of them uncomfortable.
One might say the same about the Texas Rangers, except their goods are more volatile.
The Rangers might thrive on their rotation of Mike Minor, Corey Kluber, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, yet it's alarming that only Lyles is younger than 32. That could lead to breakdowns and injuries if the shortened season includes scheduled doubleheaders and fewer off days.
For its part, the Rangers offense won't compete with those of the Yankees, Astros and Twins under any circumstances. Certainly, disaster will strike if Joey Gallo can't stay healthy, Danny Santana regresses and Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus don't rebound.
Though the Rangers should finish ahead of the Seattle Mariners, it's hard to see them actually climbing up the AL West ranks in 2020.
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NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Atlanta Braves are out to win a third straight NL East title in 2020, but they'll be challenged by the reigning champion Washington Nationals and even the Noah Syndergaard-less New York Mets.
The Philadelphia Phillies will also be in the mix, but likely not to the degree that they're hoping.
Yes, the Phillies did well when they hired Joe Girardi as their manager and then signed Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius as free agents. And given how hot he was in the final third of 2019, Bryce Harper seems poised for a renaissance season.
Yet such things haven't rendered the Phillies free of red flags. A return to superstardom on Harper's part could only mean a few steps out of mediocrity for their offense. And in light of his just-OK track record, it isn't a given that Wheeler will be the savior for a moundstaff that posted a 4.90 ERA last season.
Altogether, the Phillies look like they're still the fourth-best team in the NL East—and perhaps even doomed to a third straight .500-ish season.
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
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The race for this year's NL Central title is likely to be a four-team affair between the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals.
Simply because they're the division's defending champs, the Cardinals may be seen by some as the team to beat. And to their credit, they're still built around the Jack Flaherty-led pitching staff that ranked second in the NL with a 3.80 ERA in 2019.
It's a lot harder, however, to count on a Cardinals offense that wasn't good in 2019 and got even weaker on paper when Marcell Ozuna departed as a free agent.
The Cardinals are banking on 20-somethings like Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson, but more so on 30-somethings Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Dexter Fowler staving off declining any further in 2020. The latter is a long shot.
Because the NL Central is arguably even deeper than it was last year, the Cards' path back to the division's throne could be closed off if their offense flops again.
NL West: San Francisco Giants
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Though the 2020 NL West title will almost certainly be won by the Dodgers, the division also has one pretty good team (Arizona Diamondbacks) and one sleeper (San Diego Padres).
The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, are not so good. But while everyone seems to understand as much with the Rockies, it must be said that they're miles better than the Giants.
The Giants needed a bunch of luck just to win 77 games last year, and that was with Bruce Bochy at the helm and Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith in their pitching staff. All three are gone now, and what's left hardly inspires confidence.
As of now, Mauricio Dubon is the only member of San Francisco's everyday lineup who will be younger than 30 by the end of the season. The Giants rotation is similarly afflicted by age, and they'll have to scramble for options if Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly can't bounce back from brutal performances in 2019.
Never mind just the worst team in the NL West. These Giants may well be the worst team in the entire National League.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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