A 'Hater's Guide' to the 2020 MLB Season
Most MLB fanbases enter spring training with some sense of optimism—whether a team is expected to contend for a World Series or merely anticipating the big league debuts of top prospects.
At the same time, doubts creep in, especially given the nature of a 162-game season.
For every sensational turnaround story like that of the Washington Nationals, there is an epic collapse from a team such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were the best club in baseball from wire to wire last year.
No team is infallible. Other franchises are openly tanking. In any case, there are always concerns for every club. So, what could go wrong for all 30 clubs?
Well, for starters, it is possible the season is in jeopardy, which would be a worst-case scenario for every team. MLB suspended the remainder of spring training and delayed the start of the regular season indefinitely due to the coronavirus pandemic.
There is a lot of uncertainty as to when the year will begin, and Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported some executives around the league would "welcome" Opening Day anytime before June. Of course, that could complicate the idea of using a full 162-game schedule. Baseball, after all, cannot be played with snow on the ground.
A shortened season might be the solution, but even that resolution might not stop a potential cancellation if the season keeps getting delayed. As of right now, however, MLB is operating under the assumption that the season will begin at some point down the road.
With that in mind, here is a "Hater's Guide" to the 2020 season in which we look at each individual team's worst-case scenario.
Note: Teams listed in descending order based on last year's standings.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: Just how bad can it get? Very bad
The Orioles were one of the more competitive teams in the AL East just a few years ago. They made it to the ALCS in 2014 and reached the playoffs again in 2016. But things have changed drastically.
Franchise mainstay Adam Jones is long gone. So too is Manny Machado. Meanwhile, former slugger Chris Davis is a sub-replacement player, and the Orioles traded their best positional player (Jonathan Villar) and starting pitcher (Dylan Bundy) in the offseason.
Baltimore has won just 101 games in the last two years combined, but—given the further sell-off this winter—things are bound to get worse. It seems likely the Orioles will return to the cellar in 2020.
Toronto Blue Jays: The young guys fail to live up to the hype
Blue Jays fans had reason to be excited before the 2019 campaign, mostly because of the anticipation surrounding the eventual debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. While he was slightly underwhelming in his rookie year, youngsters Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio sparked excitement.
The Blue Jays then got down to business in the offseason. They bolstered a starting rotation that ranked 24th in fWAR, per FanGraphs, by signing Hyun-Jin Ryu (last year's ERA champion) and Tanner Roark, and trading for Chase Anderson.
In addition, closer Ken Giles is looking to repeat his 2019 success (1.87 ERA). But ultimately, Toronto's potential to make a leap in the division depends on the young guys. Are they ready?
Guerrero has unquestionable potential, but he also ranked 215th in sweet-spot percentage, per Baseball Savant, and he was overmatched against breaking balls. Moreover, he was the worst infielder in baseball in terms of outs above average.
While Bichette and Biggio had some success, they posted small sample sizes. What about right-handed pitching prospect Nate Pearson? He has yet to throw in the majors, but his success (or lack thereof) could play a huge role in Toronto's 2020 narrative.
Boston Red Sox: Chris Sale actually does need Tommy John surgery
This has already been a tough year for Red Sox fans. Just months after the team missed the playoffs, Boston dealt generational star Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers. As if that were not infuriating enough, left-handed ace Chris Sale is giving fans more room for pause.
Sale was shut down last August because of elbow inflammation, an issue that resurfaced at the beginning of this month. Although it was reported Sale would not need Tommy John surgery, the reoccurring nature of this problem and his consistent discomfort could force the issue.
The Red Sox were already unlikely candidates to make the playoffs, but if Sale stays on the shelf when the season starts, that window will be closed. To make matters worse, the lefty is on a massive five-year, $145 million contract after he signed an extension last March, and surgery would put him out for at least 12 months.
In other words, he will have missed over a year-and-a-half (and maybe close to two years) of his five-year extension.
Tampa Bay Rays: The opener strategy proves unsustainable
Rays manager Kevin Cash is one of the most brilliant minds in baseball. He popularized the opener idea (pitching a reliever at the beginning of games) during the 2018 season and perfected it during a 2019 campaign in which the team won 96 games despite the multiple Rays starters missing extended time to injury.
Many teams around the league now use openers in some capacity. But the question is: Will this strategy continue to work in 2020, especially in light of the new reliever rules?
The Rays are heavily reliant on bullpen depth. But at some point, it seems like they will need up-and-coming arms such as Brendan McKay to stretch things out and go deeper into games. The Nationals won the World Series largely on the strength of their starting pitching. Tampa Bay has capable arms—such as Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow—but the club might not have the depth come October.
Of course, the Rays also have a number of prospects in their pipeline who—like McKay—could make an impact in 2020. But it will be fascinating to see whether Cash is forced to adapt, especially in the latter months of the season.
New York Yankees: The pressure is too much for Gerrit Cole
The Yankees flexed some of their financial might when they signed Gerrit Cole to a nine-year, $324 million contract in December. Cole is coming off a year in which he went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA, 2.64 FIP (best in the AL), 326 strikeouts (best in MLB) and 185 ERA+ (also best in the majors). He has asserted himself as one of the top hurlers in baseball the last two years, but will that success continue in the Big Apple?
It would be easy to suggest a worst-case scenario in which a number of key regulars go down with injuries again. But the Yankees dealt with numerous injuries last year, and they still won 103 games.
But Cole's success is paramount to New York's World Series hopes. The Yankees are already without Luis Severino for the remainder of the year after he underwent Tommy John surgery in February, and James Paxton is recovering from a back injury.
Plus, Domingo German is serving the remainder of an 81-game suspension and will be inactive for the first 63 games of 2020. The Yankees have the firepower to win the Fall Classic, but they need Cole to be at his best if they hope to run the gauntlet.
American League Central
2 of 6
Detroit Tigers: Detroit rushes Casey Mize to the majors
Like the Orioles, Tigers fans are in a compromised position. Unlike the Orioles, the Tigers have a number of exciting prospects who could debut in 2020.
One of those is Casey Mize, who the Tigers selected No. 1 overall in the 2018 amateur draft. Mize was excellent in 2019, tearing through High-A ball and posting a 3.20 ERA in 15 starts in Double-A. But what happens if the Tigers rush his development?
Detroit will want to get Mize some big league experience this season. At the same time, the Tigers won't contend for a playoff spot. Rushing Mize to the bigs would set a bad precedent for the rest of their farm system, and it could damage his confidence if they are not careful. The Tigers cannot afford to mishandle his development.
Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler regresses
The Royals also have some exciting talent. Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi are threats to steal 30-plus bags, and both can hit for some power. Kansas City also re-signed longtime outfielder Alex Gordon in a show of good faith.
But one of the best storylines of 2019 was the play of Jorge Soler, who set a franchise record with 48 home runs to go with 117 RBI and a 138 OPS+. Soler had been a platoon outfielder for the majority of his time with the Royals and Chicago Cubs, but he seized his opportunity to become a full-time starter in 2019.
But was Soler's success legitimate? He had a monster second half and led the majors in barrels, which MLB defines as any ball hit with an average exit velocity of at least 98 mph and a launch angle between 26 and 30 degrees (which expands with every mph over 98).
Simultaneously, he led the AL with 178 strikeouts, and any "three true outcomes" guy is susceptible to major regression. Soler turned 28 years old in February and could still be a building block in the next few seasons. But first he needs to prove 2019 was no fluke.
Chicago White Sox: Rotation struggles hamper postseason bid
The White Sox were one of the busiest franchises of the 2019-20 offseason. They signed free agents Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnacion and Gio Gonzalez while extending youngsters Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert on long-term deals. After a decade of misery, the White Sox look like a team capable of contending this season.
But the reality is the South Siders also have reason to be concerned about the starting rotation. Keuchel is a solid, veteran addition who should give them quality innings from the left side of the bump. Lucas Giolito made the All-Star team last season is primed to take another step forward. As for everyone else, plenty of questions remain.
Michael Kopech is just returning from Tommy John surgery. He had good stuff during his late-season call-up in 2018 and got off to a strong start in spring training, but such a long layoff after that surgery can call for an adjustment period.
Meanwhile, Dylan Cease struggled to match his minor league success in the majors last year because of command issues. The same can be said for Reynaldo Lopez. Gonzalez is another quality vet, but he is 34. The White Sox have depth, but they might not have enough quality to reach the playoffs.
Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor is traded by the deadline
Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor is not only one of the best players in baseball, but he's also a magnetic personality. His charisma and five-tool ability make him a superstar, but it seems unlikely he will be in Cleveland much longer.
Lindor—who will be a free agent after the 2021 season—recently put extension talks on hold, saying the sides were too far apart in terms of his value, per The Athletic's Jason Lloyd. This is only likely to increase Cleveland's urgency to trade him if things go south.
The Indians—for all their recent success—are still a small-market club. They traded Corey Kluber to get his $17.5 million salary off the books and have failed to fully address clear needs in the outfield during the last two seasons in order to save money. If they get off to a poor start, Lindor could be on his way out.
Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson proves to be the wrong addition
Make no mistake, Josh Donaldson provides instant value to a Twins lineup that was already plenty dangerous. He also provides plus defense at the hot corner and allows Miguel Sano to move to first base.
But…did the Twins really need more offense, or did they need more pitching? Minnesota was swept out of the playoffs by the Yankees in part because injuries exposed the Twins' lack of depth in the starting rotation. So what did they do to address that?
Well, not a whole lot. The Twins signed Homer Bailey, 33, and Rich Hill, 40. But those guys are aging vets who are nearing the end of their respective careers, with Hill coming off elbow surgery last fall.
Yes, the Twins traded for former Dodgers right-hander Kenta Maeda. But Maeda—who was a part-time regular-season starter and a bullpen guy in the postseason—is suddenly a marquee name for a team that's looking to contend for a pennant.
Are these the guys you want to trust with quality innings in October? Perhaps, but the Twins might regret spending on Donaldson instead of a Zack Wheeler or Ryu.
American League West
3 of 6
Seattle Mariners: Jerry Dipoto keeps selling
Is this really a negative? After all, the Mariners are coming off a 68-win season, and they are nowhere close to reaching the playoffs. On the one hand, general manager Jerry Dipoto made the excellent move to offload Robinson Cano's contract (along with closer Edwin Diaz) as part of a deal to acquire young stars like Jarred Kelenic from the New York Mets in December 2018.
But on the other hand, Seattle has become somewhat of a revolving door. Whether it's Diaz or Jean Segura, Dipoto has never been afraid to ship players away at the drop of a hat. That might be necessary for the Mariners to build the farm and be more competitive down the road, but it makes it hard for fans to identify with a certain player.
Outfielder Mitch Haniger and Kyle Seager could be a few of those guys who reestablish their value and are shipped off before the trade deadline.
Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon is a major letdown
The Angels made a commitment to Mike Trout when they signed him to a big extension last spring: We are going to surround you with the talent this team needs to be successful. General manager Billy Eppler then went out and signed the best position player on the free-agent market this winter in Anthony Rendon.
There are a number of narratives to keep an eye on with this year's team, though: Shohei Ohtani was originally slated to return to the mound in May prior to the suspension of play, but will he be able to remain healthy and throw quality innings? Do the Angels have enough in the rotation? These are valid points of skepticism, but a disappointing season from Rendon would be a backbreaker.
It seems unlikely Rendon would disappoint. He has played at least 136 games in each of the last four years, and he ranks sixth among all players in terms of fWAR from 2014 to 2019. However, the Angels need him to be a superstar while hitting behind Trout, especially because there are so many question marks with respect to the pitching staff. Can Rendon help power the Halos back to the playoffs?
Texas Rangers: Offensive ineptitude makes Texas wish it signed Rendon
Whereas the Angels are hoping Rendon could be the additional spark the lineup needs to be more competitive, the Rangers might have missed a big opportunity by failing to sign him.
The Rangers were in talks with the Houston native throughout free agency but failed to land Rendon or Donaldson despite seemingly prioritizing the need for an upgrade at the hot corner. This could come back to bite them.
Texas ranked 27th in third base fWAR last season, and its most notable acquisitions were signing catcher Robinson Chirinos and a 34-year-old Todd Frazier in free agency. While the Rangers might have hopes guys such as Danny Santana and youngster Willie Calhoun would follow up on their breakout 2019s, Calhoun suffered a fractured jaw during spring training. All of this could add up to another season full of offensive struggles.
Houston Astros: The rotation misses Cole immensely
It would be too much of an out to merely say "Astros struggle amid fan outrage" in this spot. Sure, the sign-stealing scandal has evoked visceral reactions from fellow players and fans around the game, but this is more about what the Astros might be lacking on the field.
Houston always seemed unlikely to re-sign Cole, especially because it has to consider extending the likes of George Springer and Carlos Correa soon. In fact, Cole's impending free agency likely played a large role in the decision to trade for Zack Greinke before last year's trade deadline.
But there is no denying the Astros will miss Cole, who might prove irreplaceable. Houston will get Lance McCullers Jr. back, though he missed all of 2019 as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery. Jose Urquidy was a capable spot starter, but is he ready to be a full-time starter at the back end of the rotation?
What about Josh James, who has good stuff but was lit up during his relief appearances in the 2019 postseason? And, as brilliant as they are, both Greinke, 36, and Justin Verlander, 37, are getting old.
The starting group might even be closer to league-average without Cole, especially if Verlander's recovery from groin surgery, which is expected to sideline him for six weeks, pushes into the start of the season.
National League East
4 of 6
Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson continues to struggle
Believe it or not, the Marlins are trying to be more competitive this season! They traded for Villar and signed Francisco Cervelli, Corey Dickerson and Brandon Kintzler, and they bought low on the likes of Jesus Aguilar and Matt Kemp.
But while the Marlins will hope these veterans can infuse life into the club, their future will remain bleak without improvements from their young players, most notably Lewis Brinson.
The Marlins acquired Brinson in the trade that sent Christian Yelich to the Milwaukee Brewers, only to watch Yelich win the 2018 NL MVP and finish as the runner-up in 2019. Brinson, meanwhile, has hit below the Mendoza Line in each of the last two seasons. He will be 26 in May, and the Marlins desperately need him to show progress if they hope to reap any value from that lopsided trade.
Philadelphia Phillies: Injuries decimate the team yet again
Whereas the Yankees overcame a multitude of injuries in 2019, the Phillies did not. From Andrew McCutchen and Jake Arrieta to Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson, the Phillies suffered injuries to key players both in the lineup and pitching staff, and these setbacks doomed their season.
But what if it all happens again? McCutchen's knee injury opened a gaping hole in the leadoff spot, while the absence of Dominguez and Robertson in the bullpen made it that much tougher for the Phils to close games. Imagine if any of Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola or Wheeler miss time. It could be crippling.
Another storyline could involve a trade of J.T. Realmuto if the team gets off to a slow start, especially because he is on an expiring contract and had a contentious arbitration process. But for now, injuries are the key factor to watch in Philadelphia.
New York Mets: Edwin Diaz cannot get back on track
The Mets had to take on five years and $120 million of Cano's contract in that December 2018 trade with Seattle, but they also got Diaz, a flamethrower who had yet to turn 25 and led baseball with 57 saves in 2018. It seemed like a win-now move. Only, it did not play out that way.
Cano missed a good deal of time because of injury, but Diaz's struggles were far more consequential. He had a 5.59 ERA in 58 frames, blowing seven saves and giving up 2.3 homers per nine innings. The Mets still rallied to win 86 games last year, but they could have easily won 90-plus had Diaz been in 2018 form.
This is a critical year for him. The Mets are hoping to make a playoff push, but they can't do so without his rediscovering his old dominance.
For Diaz, the most telling sign will be whether he can be more effective with his slider. Opponents hit just .129 with a .234 slugging percentage and a 53.8 whiff rate in 2018. But the splits were .297/.622 off the slider in 2019, and the whiff rate fell by roughly 10 percentage points, according to Baseball Savant. If Diaz cannot reestablish his breaking ball as an out pitch, he will struggle…and the Mets might follow suit.
Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg deals with injuries all year
The Nationals were left with this decision this past winter: Pay Stephen Strasburg, or pay Rendon. Both stars were going to command massive deals in free agency, and it was always unlikely Washington could re-sign both. The club chose Strasburg.
While one could make the case for Rendon, it is hard to argue against general manager Mike Rizzo's decision. Strasburg was coming off a year in which he led the NL in innings pitched before embarking on one of the best individual postseason stretches ever, a run that culminated with a World Series MVP.
Perhaps Strasburg's innings count was the result of his finally feeling healthy. But if he struggles with injury again, it will be tough for the Nationals to replicate their success in 2020. This past year was the first since 2014 in which he threw 200-plus innings. Can he maintain his health?
Atlanta Braves: Playing too close to the vest with prospect capital
At some point, it seems inevitable the Braves will need to add a starter if they hope to get over the hump. Cole Hamels is dealing with shoulder soreness after he was hampered by an oblique strain in 2019, which means a well-past-his-prime Felix Hernandez could make the team after a series of strong performances this spring.
The Braves might have a crucial opportunity to add an impact starter at the trade deadline. But will general manager Alex Anthopoulos be willing to dig into his treasure trove to make a big splash?
Perhaps Atlanta hopes a youngster such as Ian Anderson can accelerate his timeline and become an effective starter by season's end. But the Braves might not have enough pitching to beat the likes of the Dodgers in the National League if they cannot add to their rotation, and they must be willing to cede prospects to make an impact move.
National League Central
5 of 6
Pittsburgh Pirates: Young starters disappoint
Pirates fans do not have much to look forward to in 2020. Starling Marte is gone, and there is a chance Josh Bell could follow if general manager Ben Cherington sees fit to capitalize on his value and start over.
However, the Pirates do have intriguing arms in the rotation. Joe Musgrove has decent strikeout stuff, and Mitch Keller should be much improved after getting his first taste of big league action in 2019. Trevor Williams went 14-10 with a 3.11 ERA in 2018, but he dealt with injuries and posted a 5.38 ERA in 26 starts last season.
Cherington would likely feel a lot better about the state of the organization if each of these three guys makes a personal leap in 2020. The Pirates still have talented position players like Bell, Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds, but Pittsburgh will not show any improvement if its young arms fail to pitch effectively.
Cincinnati Reds: Trevor Bauer is not who they thought he was
The Reds paid a fairly steep price to acquire Trevor Bauer, sending top prospect Taylor Trammell to the San Diego Padres as part of a three-team deal involving the Indians. Bauer responded by going 2-5 with a 6.39 ERA in 10 starts with Cincinnati.
While the Reds are hoping Bauer can return to his 2018 form (when he went 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA), what if he is simply a mediocre starting pitcher? After all, Bauer had never even posted a sub-4.00 ERA before his 2018 breakout. He was so successful that year because he gave up an AL-best 0.5 homers per nine innings. But as the homer rate has increased in 2019, his ERA climbed, even in spite of a similar strikeout rate.
Especially given the juiced ball era (as well as the fact that he makes home starts in Great American Ball Park), Bauer might be no better than a mid-rotation starter. That is bad news for a Reds team in desperate need of another impact arm alongside Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo. They have all the makings of a playoff dark horse in 2020, but not if Bauer struggles.
Chicago Cubs: Deadline sell-off
Whereas the White Sox were among the most active teams in terms of adding talent, their crosstown rivals were mostly active in the rumor mill. The Cubs—handicapped by a tight budget—signed just two players (Jeremy Jeffress and Steven Souza Jr.) to big league contracts, and they dangled stars Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras in the trade market.
Both Bryant and Contreras will be on the Opening Day roster, but that could easily change if the team is underperforming at the trade deadline. Bryant is just one of the numerous Cubs who will become a free agent after 2021, and the team might trade Contreras if backup catcher Victor Caratini continues to produce—especially given top prospect Miguel Amaya is also waiting in the minors.
Those two are not the only ones who could depart in a sell-off, however, as left-hander Jose Quintana (on an expiring deal) might also have value.
Keith Law of The Athletic ranked the Cubs farm system 28th. It seems unlikely team president Theo Epstein would pass on an opportunity to add top prospects if the Cubs are playing average baseball, especially because of contractual factors and an aging starting rotation.
Milwaukee Brewers: Team struggles and Christian Yelich's contract looks worse
The Brewers and 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich each took risks when they agreed to a nine-year, $215 million extension earlier this month. Milwaukee—a small-market club—made its largest commitment in franchise history, while Yelich settled on a number likely far below his market value, both in guaranteed money and annual average.
Craig Counsell's club is the ultimate overachiever. The Brewers vastly outperformed projections in each of the last two seasons, and they might do so again in 2020. But if they struggle to win, it will set a bad tone in the first year of Yelich's new deal.
Law pegged Milwaukee's farm system as the worst in baseball. That is not a good sign for a small-market club, and it means one thing: The Brewers will have to spend to surround Yelich with talent.
Of course, a decent chunk of their payroll will go to Yelich every year. Yes, his decision to take a lower AAV gives them flexibility, but it might still be unrealistic to expect them to empty their pockets every year.
St. Louis Cardinals: Redbirds get little production from outfield group
The Cardinals won the NL Central mostly on the back of their pitching staff and an absurd second half from ace Jack Flaherty. St. Louis ranked 10th in the NL in runs scored and 11th in OPS last season. This past winter, they traded Jose Martinez to the Rays and watched as Marcell Ozuna signed with the Braves. Now, the Cardinals have to rely on a mostly unproven group of outfielders.
Yes, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler have plenty of experience. But Bader regressed in 2019 and still has a big strikeout rate (28.8 percent), while Fowler will be 34 Sunday. In essence, the Cardinals will count on Tyler O'Neill, Lane Thomas and—should he reach the majors—top prospect Dylan Carlson.
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he saw the outfield as an "open competition" heading into spring training. While O'Neill, Thomas and Carlson are all talented, it hardly seems like a winning formula to trot out a number of guys with small sample sizes, especially for a reigning division champion. The Cardinals will regret not re-signing Ozuna if their outfield cannot produce.
National League West
6 of 6
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado not living up to his contract
San Diego's big Manny Machado splash was supposed to mark the franchise's determination to transform from perennial losers to winners in short order. The Padres already had one of the best farm systems in baseball, and Machado's arrival was thought to be a catalyst in the makeover process.
Initially, things seemed to go according to plan. Machado broke out of an early slump to post an .850 OPS in May, and then he hit 11 homers and had a 1.064 OPS in June, all while playing exceptional defense at third base. But things got ugly. Machado was still solid in July, but he posted a woeful .626 OPS in August and hit just .193 in September as the Friars finished 70-92.
General manager A.J. Preller and owner Ron Fowler are committed to winning. They acquired Tommy Pham and re-signed Craig Stammen. But the Friars will struggle to score—and thus struggle to win—if Machado is not a run-producer.
Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado is still unhappy, demands trade
There was a point when a Nolan Arenado trade seemed all but certain. The superstar third baseman said he felt "disrespected" by general manager Jeff Bridich in January, citing an offseason of inactivity even after the club won just 71 games in 2019.
The Rockies have stuck with Arenado, though that could change if they don't win in a hurry to start the season. Colorado can ill afford to leave its star player unhappy, especially because he has an opt-out clause following the 2021 season that would allow him to become a free agent.
Yes, Arenado would be leaving $164 million on the table, but he could almost certainly surpass that number if he reenters the market.
This is all a way of saying it might be best for the Rockies and Arenado to part ways, in the event he is still unhappy and the team is not winning. Of course, Bridich would look foolish in the process, and it would upset the fanbase.
San Francisco Giants: Farhan Zaidi tries to buy at the trade deadline
The Giants were going to be sellers at the 2019 trade deadline. Then, all of a sudden, they rattled off wins in 16 of their first 19 games in July. Suddenly, they were back in the NL wild-card race, and Farhan Zaidi—in his first year as president of baseball operations—retained the beloved Madison Bumgarner and star closer Will Smith in the hopes of making a playoff run.
Of course, that run never happened. The Giants cascaded out of the playoff race, finishing 22-32. Bumgarner signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, with Smith going to the Braves. It was a tough ending to one of the most successful decades in franchise history. Still, the Giants might be competitive in 2020.
While he performed terribly in spring training, Johnny Cueto could give the rotation a lift. Plus, the Giants also have a group of talented position players. But even if they are competitive, Zaidi should refrain from buying at the deadline. The Giants do not have the farm or the money to go after big names, and they won't beat the Dodgers in the NL West. Zaidi could endanger the future of the franchise if he gets greedy.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Bumgarner is a disaster
Bumgarner headed to the desert by agreeing to a five-year, $85 million contract with the Diamondbacks. His market rose substantially after Strasburg and Wheeler signed lucrative deals this offseason, and the Diamondbacks sweetened the pot by adding the fifth year.
Arizona brought Bumgarner in to be its ace and a mentor for young pitchers Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen and Jon Duplantier. But the Diamondbacks are also hoping the Bumgarner of old will resurface. Is this wishful thinking? He had a 3.90 ERA in nearly 208 innings last year, and his strikeout rate improved. But he will also be 31 in August and, given the fact that he is on a five-year deal, fans will grow anxious if he struggles.
Bumgarner is not like Max Scherzer or Verlander; he relies on finesse and execution over power and dominant breaking stuff. This style also necessitates precise command. Given Bumgarner gave up 1.3 homers per nine innings last year while making half his starts in a pitcher-friendly park, are there reasons to be worried about his command and longevity in Arizona over the life of this deal? The 2020 season will be a good barometer for that.
Los Angeles Dodgers: The bullpen is not up to par
The Dodgers bullpen was good in 2019. The group ranked ninth in fWAR and fifth in ERA. However, things have changed. Maeda is gone, and Julio Urias might move into the starting rotation. Joe Kelly recovered from a slow start to be one of the most dominant setup men in baseball last season—that is until he collapsed in the NLDS. The Dodgers acquired Brusdar Graterol as part of the trade that landed them Maeda, but he is still unproven. Then of course, there is Kenley Jansen.
Jansen has been a shell of his former self in recent seasons. He blew eight saves last year and posted the worst ERA+ of his career. There is no doubt he still has excellent stuff, but perhaps the 32-year-old is over the hill. Jansen dealt with a scary irregular heartbeat complication in 2018, and given some of his struggles last year, the Dodgers might seek alternatives if those struggles extend into 2020.
The bullpen seems like the one area that could make or break the Dodgers this season. Other than, you know, Dave Roberts and his questionable managerial decisions.
All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, FanGraphs or Baseball Savant, unless otherwise noted.
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