Francisco Lindor Stalemate with Indians the Ultimate Test Case for Trading Stars

When is the ideal time to trade an MLB star? When should a team caught between a retool and a rebuild shed one of its most significant pieces?

Those are important, difficult questions. The Cleveland Indians are wrestling with both as they decide how to handle the Francisco Lindor situation.

Unless the Indians sign their franchise shortstop to an expensive extension, Lindor will be a free agent after the 2021 season. 

They don't have to trade him now. But his trade value might never be higher. And, according to The Athletic's Jason Lloyd, extension talks between Lindor and Cleveland have been suspended.

Lindor turned 26 years old November 14. He's a four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner. He posted an .854 OPS with 32 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 2019.

The Indians are possible contenders. They have talent on the roster aside from Lindor, including third baseman Jose Ramirez, outfielder Franmil Reyes, first baseman Carlos Santana and a strong rotation fronted by Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber and Carlos Carrasco.

They finished 93-69 but whiffed on the American League Central by eight games last year after winning three consecutive division titles. Plus, Clevinger and Carrasco have dealt with leg and hip injuries, respectively, this spring.

Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

Yet even after the club traded erstwhile ace Corey Kluber to the Texas Rangers this winter, FanGraphs gives Cleveland a 43.8 percent chance of advancing to the October stage in a weak division.

That said, the Indians need to decide what's up with Lindor. He's set to earn $17.5 million this season, a hefty chunk of change for a club with a limited payroll.

Team president Chris Antonetti made tellingly specific remarks to Lloyd in February:

"Normally, I don't comment too much on particulars, but I'll make an exception about Francisco because he deserves it. We'd love for Francisco to be here long term. I think Francisco shares that desire. Our ownership has made meaningful efforts to try to do that and so has Francisco. … Now how do we make that happen is where it gets difficult. It's a really hard situation—it's not because of a lack of desire on our part or Francisco's part—but more when you look at the economics of baseball and the realities of building championship teams in a small market … it gets really difficult."

Translation: We'd love to keep him, but we can't (or are unwilling) to loosen the purse strings.

If that's the case, what are the Indians waiting for? One more possible wild-card run with their superstar at the helm, only to deal him next winter? Or maybe they fizzle by July and swap him at the trade deadline?

There is a give and take from an optics standpoint. But before the season, Lindor would undoubtedly bring in a massive prospect haul, plus a big league-ready player or two. Look what the Los Angeles Dodgers gave up for one year of former Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts, while admittedly taking on left-hander David Price's contract.

Other superstars, including Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado and Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant have floated through the rumor mill. But Arenado is owed $35 million each of the next two seasons at least, after which he can opt out of a massive deal that would pay him in excess of $160 million. Bryant, like Betts, will be a free agent after the 2020 season, during which he'll earn $18.6 million.

Lindor is in the sweet spot between controllability and (relative) affordability.

"I'm not a person that holds grudges," Lindor told Lloyd recently. "I don't forget things, but I don't hold grudges. ... We couldn't come up with an agreement. ... It didn't seem like it was [close] from my point of view. It's the reality we live in. I'm not mad. I continue to express how much I love it here, how much I want to be here. So let's focus on winning. Let's focus on the season."

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Those sound like the diplomatic words of a man with one foot out the door. 

Cleveland is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It resisted dealing Lindor during the offseason despite persistent rumors.

But the Tribe may be best served by moving its highest-profile player now in the interest of competing in the near(ish) future.

There would be pushback from the fanbase. It would weaken their odds of contending this season. But it might be the right call for the long haul.

When is the best time to trade an MLB star? Maybe before you want to.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.