NFL Free Agency 2020: Who Has the Most to Gain This Offseason?
For many NFL players, free agency opens up new and exciting opportunities, but a smaller group faces a more crucial time in their respective careers. A few teams have the pressure of adding the first few quality veteran assets to a rebuilding roster or filling voids on a playoff-ready squad.
Although front offices have an entire draft class to address needs, the top investments in March cost a lot more with long-term deals and shorter high-dollar contracts on the negotiating table in exchange for immediate impact.
With career longevity, major salary increases and playoff aspirations on the line, players and teams have a lot to gain (or lose) in the offseason—this year is no different.
Considering the factors above, we'll highlight eight selections—both impending free agents and clubs—examining what's at stake for each with a focus on the open market. Who's coming off a strong season and looking for a big payday? Which teams are most in need of a huge splash during free agency?
Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals
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Behind Jay Ajayi and Frank Gore, Kenyan Drake had limitations on his workload, hindering him from showing his potential as a lead running back. Finally, he had a chance to shine in a featured role after the Miami Dolphins traded him to the Arizona Cardinals before the 2019 deadline.
In eight games with the Cardinals, Drake eclipsed 100 rushing yards three times—the most in any of his four seasons. Even more impressive, he usurped All-Pro running back David Johnson on the depth chart upon arrival, starting every game with his new team.
This offseason, Drake will attempt to land a big contract coming off his best pro campaign. He's going to command $8-10 million annually on the open market, per Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports. Ironically, the upper end of that range would put him fifth behind Johnson in average salary among running backs, per Spotrac.
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Cardinals will consider franchise-tagging Drake, which would keep him on the books for a projected $12.5 million in 2020.
If the Cardinals allow Drake to test the free-agent market, teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with money to spend and a void in the backfield may offer the 26-year-old a lucrative deal.
Remember, the shelf life for running backs in their prime years is short. At Drake's age, he can't afford to sacrifice long-term security for year-to-year contracts.
With the franchise tag, Drake would earn more than his desired pay rate, but a stable role on a multiyear deal can add to his career longevity.
Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills are in a sweet spot in terms of cap space and their standing in the NFL hierarchy. Coming off a 10-6 season, which included a playoff berth, general manager Brandon Beane will have $82.8 million to spend during free agency.
Western New York isn't a hot-spot destination for quality veterans on the move, but the Bills are legitimate contenders going into the 2020 season. They also have money to toss at high-end players who value winning at the top of their checklist for viable suitors.
On the payroll, Buffalo has one player, center Mitch Morse, with a cap hit above $10 million, per Spotrac. Quarterback Josh Allen will go into the third year of his rookie deal, which carries a $5.8 million cap charge for 2020. The Bills have another year to build around him before serious talks of an extension may begin to surface.
In the meantime, Beane can target high-cost free agents like Dante Fowler Jr., Jadeveon Clowney or Robert Quinn to fill a void on the edge. The Bills ranked 14th in quarterback hurries (58) this past season. Secondly, their top two pass-rushers, Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson, who combined for 16 sacks, will test free agency.
Without crippling their cap space, the Bills can splurge on the market to bolster the roster for a longer run in the playoffs. Buffalo's double-digit-win season and spending power could entice some of the best available veterans to sign up for cold, blustery winters in the Northeast.
Las Vegas Raiders
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Two years ago, Las Vegas Raiders head coach Jon Gruden said guys are "dying to come and play" for the team. Now, add the glitz and glamour of a new city in a tax-free state—the Silver and Black could be a destination high on the list for many veterans.
General manager Mike Mayock seems confident in the team's allure headed to Las Vegas, per The Athletic's Vic Tafur.
"There is definitely a buzz about our move into Las Vegas," Mayock said. "Could be one of the big stories of free agency."
In addition to the Raiders' relocation, Mayock and Gruden put together a strong 2019 draft class that features running back Josh Jacobs and defensive end Maxx Crosby, who earned Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year votes, respectively.
Lastly, the Raiders were one of the biggest surprises through 10 games this past season, starting out 6-4 before losing five of the final six contests. Perhaps the young squad needs a few proven commodities to push through an entire season with a winning record.
According to Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the Raiders have an interest in cornerback Byron Jones. Nine-year cover man Chris Harris Jr. has also landed on the Silver and Black's radar, per Troy Renck of Denver7 ABC.
With a projected $57.3 million in cap space, expect the Raiders to chase several notable free agents to strengthen their 24th-ranked scoring defense. They could also target a wideout like Emmanuel Sanders or Robby Anderson to plug in as a starter opposite Tyrell Williams.
If the Raiders want to make a big splash in their Vegas arrival, they need to land a couple of big names.
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Miami Dolphins
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We're going to find out if veterans buy into the Miami Dolphins' rebuild. The club will go into free agency with a projected $93.7 million in cap space, the most of any team.
This past season, the Dolphins stripped down the roster to its bare bones, trading left tackle Laremy Tunsil, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and running back Kenyan Drake—all three flourished with their new teams. The first two earned Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors, respectively.
Now, Miami has to build for the future, and that starts with the addition of key veterans off the market. According to ESPN's Cameron Wolfe, running back Melvin Gordon III has an interest in the Dolphins; the team will keep tabs on his asking price, but don't rule out a cost-effective backup option.
"The Dolphins might decide a big monetary commitment at this time isn't feasible, so one option could be signing a mid-tier running back option such as Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard or former Dolphin Lamar Miller to pair with a rookie," Wolfe wrote.
According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Dolphins have some level of interest in a former Patriot and impending free agents on their roster, specifically cornerback Logan Ryan, guard Joe Thuney, center Ted Karras and safety Devin McCourty.
Miami's connection to former and current Patriot players makes sense. Dolphins head coach Brian Flores spent 15 years in New England, working his way up from a scouting assistant to a linebackers coach and eventually calling defensive plays, per Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports.
With a lot of cap space, general manager Chris Grier can lure some of those targets with money and sell hope in this club's three-to-four-year outlook.
If not, the Dolphins will have to draft wisely with little margin for error, building their roster credibility from scratch.
Of course, Grier has to address one elephant in the room with visiting free agents—the quarterback position.
Pending their plan or choice at quarterback, the Dolphins will experience an expedited or slow pathway back to playoff contention.
If top-tier veterans see a relatively successful future in Miami, the team could field a competitive squad in 2020, with Ryan Fitzpatrick or a rookie under center, and rise through the ranks in the coming years.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, New Orleans Saints
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It may be time for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to leave New Orleans for a starting job elsewhere.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Saints plan to use a first-round tender on restricted free agent quarterback Taysom Hill. New Orleans can match any contract offer sheet for him or allow the 29-year-old to walk in exchange for a top-32 pick.
Schefter also noted the team intends to sign Hill to a new deal, which would ensure him a backup role behind Drew Brees, who plans to play another year in New Orleans. Unless the Saints release a few players and restructure contracts, Bridgewater seems like the odd man out at quarterback.
Last offseason, Bridgewater met with the Miami Dolphins, but he chose to stay in New Orleans. This time around, the 27-year-old may take a longer look at a potential starting opportunity with Hill reportedly in the Saints' future plans.
Bridgewater has only started six out of 15 games since the 2015 campaign. Still in the prime of his career, it makes sense to chase new opportunities with another team that views him as a possible first-stringer for the 2020 campaign. He won't have that chance behind Brees, who, at 41 years old, still plays at a high level.
Before Bridgewater suffered a torn ACL and dislocated knee during the 2016 offseason, he earned Pro Bowl honors, leading the Minnesota Vikings to an 11-5 season and a division title in 2015. Five years later, he could become a hot commodity on the open market, commanding $30 million annually, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.
With that amount of money on the line and a crowded quarterback depth chart in New Orleans, Bridgewater can explore the market, sign a lucrative deal and go back under center as a full-time starter next season.
Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets
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Is Robby Anderson a No. 1 wide receiver in this league? Based on his receiving numbers with the New York Jets, he's more of a secondary option with catch rates below 56 percent in all four of his seasons. The 26-year-old doesn't have a 1,000-yard campaign, which sets off some alarm bells as a potential lead playmaker.
However, Anderson hasn't suited up alongside a high-level quarterback.
During his rookie term, he caught passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, in a down season, Bryce Petty, as a first-year starter, and Geno Smith.
In 2017, the Jets signed journeyman stopgap signal-caller Josh McCown, who was 38 years old at the time.
Over the last two campaigns, Sam Darnold has experienced a rough transition to the pros, throwing for 36 touchdowns and 28 interceptions while completing 59.9 percent of his passes under two different coaching staffs.
The Jets' instability may have hindered Anderson's growth. Although ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported Gang Green want him back, he could be better off going elsewhere with a more established quarterback.
Because of an uninspiring free-agent market at wide receiver, Anderson may headline a depleted group, which increases his chances of landing a rewarding long-term deal.
According to Tyler Dragon of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Cincinnati Bengals intend to franchise-tag wideout A.J. Green if they can't agree to a long-term deal first. If the Dallas Cowboys keep Amari Cooper off the market, Anderson could be on tap for a huge payday wherever he signs, though the team's quarterback will likely dictate his ceiling as a pro for the next three or four years.
Breshad Perriman, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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This offseason could change Breshad Perriman's career for better or worse.
Because of various injuries and ineffective play, Perriman hasn't performed at the level of a first-round draft pick. The Baltimore Ravens parted ways with him after two seasons. In 2018, he caught 16 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns with the Cleveland Browns. Last year, the UCF product had his best season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Buccaneers wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin suffered hamstring injuries that sidelined them late in the season. In December, Perriman took on a lead role and didn't disappoint, registering three consecutive 100-plus-yard games to finish the campaign.
Although Perriman racked up most of his numbers in the last month of the 2019 campaign, he finished with career highs in receptions (36), yards (645) and touchdowns (six).
Typically, Perriman has been a big-play receiver, averaging at least 15.1 yards per catch in three out of four years. That should attract suitors during free agency. Like Robby Anderson, he could benefit from a weak free-agent wide receiver class. If so, the 26-year-old could breathe new life into his career.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
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Will Ryan Tannehill look any better than he did in the second half of the 2019 season?
Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota in Week 7 and sparked the Tennessee Titans' 7-3 run that led them to the AFC Championship Game. He finished with the league's highest quarterback rating (117.5) and became the 2019 Comeback Player of the Year. The 31-year-old recorded a career-high 70.3 completion percentage and earned his first Pro Bowl invite as well.
Now an impending free agent, Tannehill could sign a deal worth $26.7 million annually, per Spotrac. The Titans can franchise-tag him for a projected $26.9 million if they don't use the one-year tender on running back Derrick Henry.
Whether it's in Tennessee or elsewhere, Henry will probably ink a long-term pact following his best season, taking the rushing title with 1,540 yards on the ground.
Going into his age-32 campaign, Tannehill doesn't have youth on his side. Other teams may be hesitant to invest in him long-term after six years of average output. However, his outlier 2019 performance can help him reel in a huge contract. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Titans are working on a multiyear deal with the resurgent signal-caller.
If Tannehill somehow hits the open market, he could still generate a lot of interest and demand close to $30 million annually, elevating his average salary to top-10 status among quarterbacks, per Spotrac.
Projected franchise tag salaries courtesy of Over the Cap, and cap space courtesy of Spotrac.
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