NFL Players Who Will Be Overhyped, Overpaid in Free Agency

Free agency is an exciting time in the NFL offseason, especially on opening day. With teams legally allowed to contact players days before the official start, the initial 24 to 48 hours of free agency are a flurry of activity that usually involves big spending.

The biggest contracts of free agency are typically handed out in the first few days. With the salary cap expected to reach roughly $200 million, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, those deals could be massive this year.

However, the biggest deals aren't always the best ones. Signings that look good on paper can prove to be bad deals because a player is past his prime, an injury liability, a poor scheme fit or not worth a massive investment in the first place.

Teams often overpay to land a player with a notable name, only to be disappointed by the return on investment. Here, we'll examine eight players likely to be signed in the first wave of free agency who carry plenty of hype and are poised to be overpaid. This doesn't mean these are bad players or that they'll be flat-out busts—only that their contracts are likely to heavily outweigh their value.

QB Philip Rivers

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If quarterback Philip Rivers had a little more playoff success on his resume, he might be a future Hall of Famer. He's been a high-level starter for most of his 16-year career, and he's one of the biggest names headed to market this season.

Teams will be interested in signing Rivers early—Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN recently mentioned the Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers as possible suitors. Rivers will get paid like a Pro Bowl quarterback because he was one just two years ago.

The problem is that he has already started to decline. It became clear in 2019 that he has lost his deep-ball accuracy. He had 23 turnovers to go with his 23 touchdown passes, and his passer rating of 88.5 was his second-lowest of the past decade.

Additionally, the 38-year-old insists he'll only play for two more years.

"I can say for certain that if I'm playing, it's a two-year maximum," he said in February, per Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times.

Are two years of maybe above-average quarterback play worth $50 million? That's likely a low number for Rivers, considering Nick Foles got $22 million per year last offseason. Unless a team is literally a quarterback away from a championship, Rivers is not worth that investment.

WR A.J. Green

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Like Rivers, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green once seemed destined for enshrinement in Canton. The former Georgia star made the Pro Bowl seven times in his first seven seasons. But then he dropped off the proverbial cliff in a big way.

Over the past four seasons, Green has just one 1,000-yard campaign and has missed 29 games because of injury. He missed all of 2019 and will turn 32 in July. There no guarantee Green will ever be the same dynamic deep threat he once was, but in a relatively soft receiver market, he's going to be overhyped.

According to CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora, the Bengals could have gotten a first-round pick by trading Green before last year's deadline.

Now, Cincinnati appears ready to use the franchise tag on him, according to Graziano and Fowler. That in itself could represent overpayment—the tag is expected to be worth roughly $18.5 million.

If the Bengals do not tag Green and he signs a long-term deal—in Cincinnati or elsewhere—he could again be heavily overpaid. A year away from football is a hard thing to overcome, especially for a pass-catcher already on the decline.

Some team is going to value Green for what he was early in his career, not the player he is today.

WR Robby Anderson

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With few top-level wide receivers scheduled to hit the open market, complementary pass-catchers like New York Jets wideout Robby Anderson are going to get paid. Also working in Anderson's favor is the fact that NFL decision-makers have an obsession with speed.

He is indeed a speedy deep threat, and that's going to garner interest on the open market.

"Multiple league sources believe Anderson will receive a contract worth an average anywhere from $13 million to $15 million annually," The Athletic's Connor Hughes wrote.

If a guy like Odell Beckham Jr. is worth $18 million per season, Anderson most certainly is not worth $15 million. While it's fair to wonder if Beckham is overpaid, there would be no question about Anderson at that supposed price.

Is Anderson fast? Sure, he ran a 4.34-second 40 at his pro day. However, he doesn't take over games with his speed a la Tyreek Hill. He isn't a reliable go-to target, and he has never had impressive numbers. Even with strong-armed Sam Darnold at quarterback, he produced just 779 yards and five touchdowns in 2019.

Anderson has never posted a 1,000-yard season either. Still, some receiver-needy team will likely pony up for him anyway.

CB James Bradberry

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Starting-caliber cornerbacks don't often hit the open market in their prime, and when they do, they're usually overpaid. Just examine the five-year, $72.5 million deal Trumaine Johnson signed with the Jets two offseasons ago.

There's a good chance the Carolina Panthers' James Bradberry is this year's overpaid free-agent cornerback. Has Bradberry been a solid starter in his four pro seasons? Sure, but the 26-year-old has never been a Pro Bowler and isn't quite an elite shutdown cover man.

Yet Bradberry wants to be paid like an elite pass-defender. According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, he is hoping to get $15 million a year or more in free agency.

Again, Bradberry is a fine cornerback, but he isn't worth $2 million per year more than 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.

However, because of the lack of quality cornerbacks in the league and the ever-expanding salary cap, he is likely to get what he's looking for. According to Hughes, at least 22 teams have inquired about him.

LB Jamie Collins Sr.

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From Deion Branch to Dion Lewis, former New England Patriots stars have often slid into obscurity elsewhere. Linebacker Jamie Collins Sr. is another prime example and a player teams could be wary of overspending to get.

The Pats traded Collins to the Cleveland Browns in 2016. While he was still a very good player in Cleveland, Collins was underwhelming enough that he was released after just two-and-a-half seasons.

Naturally, he returned to the Patriots and was again a star.

Collins, a Pro Bowler in 2015, was phenomenal in 2019. He finished with 81 tackles, seven sacks, three interceptions and three forced fumbles. Now, some team is going to overpay to get him—the New Orleans Saints are expected to have interest, according to The Athletic's Larry Holder.

If the five-year, $85 million deal C.J. Mosley signed last offseason is any indication, the overpayment could be huge.

Evidence suggests, however, that Collins can be good in his next stop but not the game-changing linebacker he was in New England—and probably not worth his price tag.

RB Melvin Gordon III

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Chargers running back Melvin Gordon III wants to be one of the highest-paid backs in the NFL. It's why he held out into the 2019 regular season and why he's likely to carry a high asking price later this month. Given his status as a two-time Pro Bowler, some team will probably come close to meeting his demands.

Here's the rub. While Gordon is indeed a very good overall back, he is not and has never been an elite runner. He has just one 1,000-yard season and has only topped 4.0 yards per carry once in his NFL career.

Gordon has averaged exactly 4.0 yards per carry and 848 yards per season for his five pro campaigns. While his receiving ability is valuable—he's averaged 45 receptions and 375 receiving yards—he is not an elite back on the level of, say, Le'Veon Bell in his prime.

Yet Gordon is probably eyeing a deal like the four-year, $52.5 million contract Bell signed with the Jets last offseason. If a team pays him close to that, it will be too much.

OG Joe Thuney

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There are three certainties in the NFL: Defense wins championships, nobody knows what pass interference is and former Patriots offensive linemen get paid on the open market. Two offseasons ago, Nate Solder signed a four-year, $62 million deal. Last year, Trent Brown inked a four-year, $66 million contract.

This year, guard Joe Thuney is going to benefit from that undeniable Patriots shine.

This isn't to suggest Thuney isn't a good player—he's just 27 years old, has never missed a game and allowed a single sack in 2019, according to Pro Football Focus. It's just that giving Thuney a market-setting deal could be a mistake.

There's no telling how reliable the 2016 third-round pick can be when playing for someone other than recently retired Patriots line coach Dante Scarnecchia. Scarnecchia helped make stars out of guys like Solder, who went on to be a massive free-agency bust.

Pro Football Focus credited Solder with five penalties and 11 sacks allowed in 2019.

There's also no telling how successful Thuney can be blocking for a quarterback without the pocket presence of Tom Brady.

Can Thuney be a star with another team? Absolutely. Is he doing to get overpaid because he was a good lineman in New England? Yes, he is.

Edge-Rusher Jadeveon Clowney

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The Kansas City Chiefs plan to franchise-tag Chris Jones, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are considering giving Shaquil Barrett the tag, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. This means Jadeveon Clowney is almost certain to be the most coveted pass-rusher on the market this offseason.

This could lead to a market-setting deal for the Seattle Seahawks defensive end—which he is not worth.

Clowney has never had double-digit sacks in a season. He's averaged just over 5.0 sacks per year while also carrying a notable injury history, missing 21 games in six seasons.

While Clowney can indeed be remarkably disruptive when healthy—sacks never tell the whole story about a pass-rusher—he isn't Khalil Mack. Some team will probably give Clowney a Mack-like deal this offseason, though.

Mack is getting $141 million over six years with the Chicago Bears. Because of Clowney's age (27), a leaguewide lack of premier pass-rushers and that one hit against Michigan everyone remembers, he could get an even bigger deal from a cap-rich team.

Is Clowney a great player when he's healthy and on? Yes. Is he the best defender in the NFL? No way. But he could soon be paid like he is.