Predicting Landing Spots for NFL's Best Free-Agent QBs

The quarterback market in the NFL will experience a renaissance of sorts when free agency opens March 18.

Tom Brady is the headline act, but it isn't a bad time to need help at the most important position. Veterans such as Philip Rivers, interesting upside options such as Teddy Bridgewater and even projects such as Jameis Winston remain slated to hit the market.

Given the top-heavy nature of the position, the best free-agent passers aren't hard to identify—they all boast starter upside. There's a clear tier cutoff between those named players and backups such as Case Keenum.

Let's outline the top passers set to hit market and predict their landing spots based on player and team circumstances, fit and other factors.

Jameis Winston: Miami Dolphins

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Jameis Winston had five seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to prove he could be their franchise passer.

Perhaps more importantly, he had one year under Bruce Arians to make his case. Instead, Winston threw 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Arians has since noted he'd pursue Tom Brady and Philip Rivers on the open market.

Winston might lose out in a game of musical chairs this offseason. His best chance is to get a shot to compete somewhere, but based on how the other dominoes fall, this could relegate him to a rebuilding team such as the Miami Dolphins.

Those Dolphins have plenty of cap space to sweeten the pot for Winston and might be just out of position at No. 5 in the draft to get their preferred rookie passer. That could mean an opportunity as a bridge passer for the 26-year-old Winston to prove a change of scenery is what's needed to unlock both stability and upside in his play.

Marcus Mariota: Los Angeles Chargers

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Marcus Mariota is another intriguing 2015 draftee with upside left in the tank, provided the right opportunity emerges.

Unlike Jameis Winston, Mariota seems to carry more hope in his game after a litany of negative factors outside of his control—headlined by injuries and constant coordinator changes with the Tennessee Titans—seemed to hold him back.

This means a would-be contender such as the Los Angeles Chargers might have serious interest.

Those Chargers fell off the map in 2019 during Philip Rivers' last season with the team, but they are just one season removed from winning 12 games. Mariota would be the perfect high-upside option to compete for the starting job with consistent veteran Tyrod Taylor.

Still only 26, Mariota is mobile and a fit in today's game. He has a playoff win on his resume too and would be the perfect bridge for the Chargers given his potential to turn that bridge into a long-term relationship.

Ryan Tannehill: Tennessee Titans

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Ryan Tannehill is one of a handful of free-agent passers who figures to end up back with the same team.

The Titans don't have a major reason not to pay the Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year, even if it's unlikely he leads the NFL in passer rating again.

Tannehill still proved the concept that sometimes a player just needs new surroundings. He completed 70.3 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns against six interceptions. Much around him would need to remain stable (such as retaining free-agent running back Derrick Henry), and a regression is possible, but he just fits.

From Tannehill's perspective, besides what could be massive money, there isn't much of a reason to seek another home. And from the Titans' perspective, he's one of the more affordable options at the position. And reaching the AFC title game is the upside of such a marriage.

Playing it safe in the NFL doesn't always work. And yet it's not hard to see why both these parties would.

Teddy Bridgewater: Indianapolis Colts

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It was only a matter of time before Teddy Bridgewater got a shot to be a franchise passer again.

Bridgewater looked like a candidate to be the long-term starter in Minnesota after he was picked 32nd in the 2014 draft.

But a severe knee injury changed the course of his career. He is fully healthy now, though, and he even stood in for an injured Drew Brees with the New Orleans Saints last year and ran up a perfect record with nine scores and two picks in five games.

In most markets, Bridgwater might be the top possible option at his position. He has shown flashes of upside and is still only 27 years old.

The Indianapolis Colts, searching for more after a so-so showing by Jacoby Brissett, scream "perfect fit." The front office is usually conservative and doesn't figure to contend for a top-end player such as Tom Brady.

That leaves Bridgewater, who probably wouldn't mind joining a team with an elite offensive line and T.Y. Hilton, not to mention the No. 13 draft pick and more than $86 million in cap space. He might also get a longer commitment from Indy than any other team because of those resources, though his performance would dictate how soon he'd face serious competition.

Philip Rivers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Philip Rivers is bound to have a rougher-than-expected market, and there is zero chance he has the fallback option of getting back with the Chargers.

Call it unfortunate timing. Rivers is in a loaded free-agent passer class, and the draft isn't too shabby either. His recent resume isn't too hot—last year he could only push the Chargers to five wins while throwing 23 scores and 20 picks.

Now 38, Rivers will play for a new team for the first time since 2004. A rebuilding squad with plenty of cap space but without a clear-cut way to get a top draft prospect—such as the Buccaneers—would make sense.

And how could Rivers complain about the fit? He'd get to sling it to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard. And he'd be under the supervision of Bruce Arians, who has already helped one aging passer revive his career (Carson Palmer).

It doesn't hurt that Rivers also just moved to Florida. He might not have envisioned ending his career with the Buccaneers, but the pairing would have the potential to be a surprisingly good fit.

Drew Brees: New Orleans Saints

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One can't mention the top free-agent quarterbacks and not bring up Drew Brees.

But one can't also raise the possibility of Brees leaving the Saints.

He isn't going anywhere. He even announced on Instagram he intends to return. The front office has only about $12.3 million in cap space, but the franchise will do whatever it takes to make sure the legend stays in town.

And why not? Brees completed 74.3 percent of his passes last year with 27 touchdowns and just four interceptions for the 13-win Saints. While Father Time continues to gnaw at the 41-year-old, it's hard to argue with his numbers.

At his age, Brees wouldn't figure to want to start over elsewhere. Considering he played behind a line that allowed just 12 sacks, handed off to Alvin Kamara and threw to Michael Thomas, leaving now would be a good way to end his career on a sour note.

Count on at least one more year for the two sides and another all-in push for a second Lombardi Trophy.

Dak Prescott: Dallas Cowboys

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Is there any doubt Jerry Jones will come up with the money necessary to keep Dak Prescott with the Dallas Cowboys?

The Cowboys will likely use the franchise tag on Prescott, according to ESPN's Jenna Laine. Call it a way for them to come up with more time to talk extension with their franchise passer.

Prescott is like any other quarterback in that he probably wouldn't mind having the leverage that comes with slipping to the open market. But it's hard to complain about Dallas as a marketing tool, never mind a football situation in which he joined Ezekiel Elliott and fellow free agent-to-be Amari Cooper, not to mention fast-rising offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

The Cowboys would be foolish to do anything but retain Prescott too, as he's the latest gem for a franchise with a knack for finding them at quarterback. He's just 26 but has north of 15,000 passing yards with 97 touchdowns and 36 interceptions over four seasons.

Prescott is bound to reset the market at quarterback with the only variables being when and how much.

Tom Brady: New England Patriots

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Everything about the standoff between the New England Patriots and Tom Brady screams "leverage."

Brady, who will be 43 in August, doesn't figure to change teams for the first time since he entered the league in 2000. And Bill Belichick and the Patriots don't seem the type to agree to a massive short-term deal with a quarterback before the collective bargaining agreement dispute gets settled.

Naturally, Brady might use the open market as leverage for his own financial interests. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport noted CBA negotiations have slowed extension talks. Brady is obviously comfortable in Foxborough; has some intriguing weapons in risers such as N'Keal Harry; and has the old, reliable connection with Belichick.

The Patriots don't have an easy exit ramp either. The team is well out of position to draft a top prospect at quarterback, and while this year's free-agent market is rich at the position, it still doesn't get better than Brady coming off his 4,000-plus yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

While the impasse makes for good offseason entertainment, Brady, double-digit wins and contention are on the menu again for the Patriots in 2020.