Which NFL Teams Have the Most at Stake in 2020 Free Agency?

NFL free agency centers around calculated risks. 

While every team takes risks on the market as a complementary process to roster-building through the draft, some simply have more at stake. When the Jacksonville Jaguars threw $88 million at Nick Foles last year, only for him to bust compared to sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew II, it created potentially irreparable harm to the team's financial outlook. 

Typically speaking, the teams with the most cap space have the most at stake. There are exceptions, but the more there is to risk, the bigger the stakes.

But barring the New England Patriots somehow losing Tom Brady or the New Orleans Saints unthinkably letting Drew Brees slip away, the biggest stakes belong to teams with droves of space in need of serious help—especially when proper spending can be the difference between a young quarterback succeeding and failing. 

Given the role free agency can play in sustained success or a lack thereof, these teams stand to benefit or suffer the most based on their performance on the market. They have the resources to make splashes and could dramatically swing their long-term outlooks with one strong summer of spending.

Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins sit on the NFL's leading cap number right now with $93.7 million in free space. 

Fittingly, the front office figures to employ the biggest roster turnover of any team while completely rebuilding, and the fate of the Brian Flores era could singularly rest in the team's market performance this offseason. 

After trading away talents like Minkah Fitzpatrick on the way to three first-round picks and five in the opening two rounds of the 2020 draft, the Dolphins have a wealth of holes to patch.

While the team rallied around Flores to unexpectedly win five games, a line that coughed up 58 sacks, a running game that averaged 3.3 yards per carry, a receiving group with one wideout above 570 yards and a defense that managed just 23 sacks while allowing a league-worst 30.9 points per game all need to be addressed. 

To summarize: The Dolphins need to fix everything. 

Presumably, Miami will use its No. 5 overall pick (or even move up) to grab its next potential franchise passer. The remaining selections can't be counted on to immediately produce and protect that rookie arm, so it's on smooth free-agent adds to secure the future.

How Miami approaches this could be one of the offseason's most interesting events. Does the front office splurge on the biggest names or make a large number of bargain adds while turning over the roster? That decision—and its execution—could decide whether the Dolphins can capitalize in an AFC East that may be nearing the end of Tom Brady's reign. 

Buffalo Bills

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Elsewhere in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills sit on the fourth-most space with about $83.1 million, and they need to use it smartly to assure quarterback Josh Allen can achieve long-term success. 

While the Bills are perhaps the most successful team featured in this article after a 10-win season, the sporadic performance of the franchise makes its inclusion fitting. The team won just six games in 2018 and nine in 2017. Before that, it had just one above-.500 record dating back to 2005.

So yes, market performance is key, especially as Allen develops.

The 23-year-old quarterback didn't get much help last year. His line coughed up 40 sacks. He ended up carrying the ball 109 times for 510 yards. Only one of his wideouts (John Brown) breached the 1,000-yard mark a few months removed from the front office reportedly being in the Antonio Brown sweepstakes. 

That the Bills came up alongside Antonio Brown's name at all is a little concerning, but it speaks to the wealth of problems on offense. This year's market could offer plenty of potential fixes such as A.J. Green, Emmanuel Sanders, Amari Cooper and more. But the "how" and "at what cost" questions will play a big role. 

For now, Buffalo's elite defense, which allowed 16.2 points per game last year, doesn't figure to be a focal point. But if the team doesn't play its cards right in free agency, the win-loss column isn't all that will be at stake. Allen's development could stagnate, leaving the Bills to look at starting over under center again. 

Cincinnati Bengals

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A new era seems set to begin for the Cincinnati Bengals. But will it feature the conservative franchise coming out of its shell to be a player on the market? 

The new era could be a dud if it doesn't. The Bengals currently have about $47.6 million in cap space but figure to gain plenty more if they offload quarterback Andy Dalton ($17.7 million) and offensive tackle Cordy Glenn ($9.5 million), which would put them near a top-five cap-space number. 

With the team seemingly poised to take LSU quarterback Joe Burrow at No. 1, Dalton figures to be on his way out the door after getting benched last season. But a rookie passer would be doomed in the current environment if the talent level around him doesn't increase. 

Last year, the Bengals had one of the worst lines in football while giving up 48 sacks, the running game didn't improve until late in the season, and the defense looked lost until late, allowing north of 26 points per game. The 2-14 record by a staff that looked overwhelmed at times was tied for the worst mark in franchise history. 

The Bengals not only have to make big free-agent decisions on wide receiver A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert, but they also need more talent in the trenches in front of the quarterback and at all levels of the defense.

Whiffing on free agents or refusing to play the market at all could cause irreparable harm to the developmental trajectory of a prospect like Burrow, who is positioned to be only the third franchise passer in Cincinnati since about 2003. 

Tampa Buccaneers

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The Tampa Buccaneers feel like a team on the cusp of a pivotal offseason. 

Bruce Arians' first effort as head coach quietly produced seven wins, which was impressive while Jameis Winston tossed 30 interceptions and Arians had to deal with a scattershot front office that had as many hits as misses in all areas. 

Free agency was a prime example. Ndamukong Suh ($9.25 million) didn't have a banner year, but Shaquil Barrett ($5 million) did. 

That performance on the market needs to stabilize in a hurry. The Buccaneers sit third in the NFL at about $85 million in cap space with a chance to achieve an upswing for the franchise. The seven wins were the most since 2016, and the team hasn't surpassed .500 more than once since 2011. 

The Buccaneers need to decide what they want to do with Winston above all else, as they could also look to pursue another free agent like Philip Rivers.

But regardless of the move at quarterback, the longstanding offensive line problem (the unit gave up 47 sacks in 2019) needs a solution. Now would be a good time to look for one in a market featuring players like Brandon Scherff and Andrew Whitworth. And don't forget about defense, as the Buccaneers were one of four teams to allow more than 28 points per game. 

Tampa Bay has had problems in free agency as a small-market team. But the resources to spur an ascent are right there, provided the front office employs them well. If not, even seven wins could end up feeling like an anomaly. 

Arizona Cardinals

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The Arizona Cardinals have an interesting mix of cap space and dire needs around a young passer. 

Arizona took the painful route in getting Josh Rosen, only to grab Kyler Murray the year after. This is the first offseason in which premium resources can go toward positions around the quarterback, and Murray could use the help.

While he completed 64.4 percent of his passes with 20 scores last year, the Cardinals only won five times. He had to finish second on the team in rushing while suffering 48 sacks, none of his wideouts hit 1,000 yards, and his defense surrendered 27.6 points per game. 

The Cardinals have about $51.5 million in cap space to work with and could have plenty more if they can find a trade partner willing to inherit running back David Johnson's dead cap number of $16.2 million. That number will need to fuel upgrades across the board, ranging from landing protection and weapons for Murray to restocking defensively. 

And this isn't only about Murray.

The Cardinals haven't had a winning season since 2015. Exciting young passer or not, the franchise risks becoming irrelevant in an NFC West that sent two teams to the playoffs last year, saw one advance to the Super Bowl and also boasted the nine-win Los Angeles Rams. 

If the Cardinals aren't getting wins in free agency this year, they might not get many on the field, either.