Every Contender's Biggest Hurdle to Winning the 2020 MLB World Series
The road to a World Series championship is a long one that requires teams to make it through 162 games in the regular season and at least 11 more in the postseason.
Even for contenders, there's plenty that can go wrong on the way there.
To wit, we've highlighted the biggest roadblock to winning the 2020 World Series for every contender—we counted 21 of them—in the league. These cover things such as roster deficiencies, injuries and even issues with the competition.
We'll start in the American League East and end with the National League West, arranging teams in order of their PECOTA projections (some of which have rounding issues) at Baseball Prospectus.
New York Yankees: Injuries
1 of 21
PECOTA: 99-63
Last season, New York Yankees players racked up 702 more days on the injured list than any other team's players. That they won 103 games anyway ought to have them feeling confident about what they might do this season if they can stay healthy.
Trouble is, that's not a given.
Center fielder Aaron Hicks likely won't be recovered from Tommy John surgery until the second half, while left-hander James Paxton could be out until May or June after having back surgery. Meanwhile, slugger Aaron Judge is battling a sore shoulder.
In short, the season hasn't even started yet, and it's already feeling like deja vu for the Yankees.
Tampa Bay Rays: Offensive Firepower
2 of 21
PECOTA: 87-75
The Tampa Bay Rays have injury concerns of their own.
This is particularly in regard to aces Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, third baseman Yandy Diaz and second baseman Brandon Lowe. All four were missing in action for much of 2019.
But more so than their health, the Rays' biggest long-term concern is whether they can hang with the Yankees, Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros offensively. Those three clubs drastically out-homered and outscored the Rays in 2019, and more of the same is likely on tap for 2020.
This threat will loom especially large if and when the Rays get to the postseason and have to take on these clubs face-to-face.
Boston Red Sox: Pitching Depth
3 of 21
PECOTA: ~85-78
With Mookie Betts, the Boston Red Sox offense had the potential to be one of the best in all of Major League Baseball.
Without him...well, not so much.
Yet it's pitching depth that figures to be the Red Sox's biggest bugaboo in 2020. Their pitchers struggled with a 4.70 ERA last season (19th leaguewide), and that was with David Price and Rick Porcello in their starting rotation. They are both gone now, and it's equally noteworthy that Boston added nothing to its leaky relief corps.
To be sure, this situation will only look worse if Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi can't recover from the injuries and struggles that derailed them in 2019.
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Minnesota Twins: The AL Central
4 of 21
PECOTA: 93-69
The Minnesota Twins are almost certainly going to win the American League Central this season.
They ran away with the division last year, after all, and they're heading into 2020 even stronger after adding Josh Donaldson to their offense and an array of arms to their pitching staff.
In recent years, however, the AL Central hasn't been much of a proving ground in relation to the postseason. The Cleveland Indians handily won the division in 2017 and 2018 only to promptly bow out of the first round of the playoffs. Despite winning 101 games, the Twins followed suit last year.
So, keep an eye on Minnesota's record outside of the AL Central this year. That'll be the most telling indicator of the team's readiness for October.
Cleveland Indians: Offensive and Pitching Depth
5 of 21
PECOTA: 86-76
Though the Indians fell short of a fourth straight division crown in 2019, it was nonetheless their fourth year in a row with at least 90 wins. If all goes right, they could make it five straight this season.
Yet they also come with serious depth concerns.
There's a drop-off in offensive talent after Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana and Franmil Reyes. Likewise, their pitching looks awfully thin following their trade of Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger's latest injury.
If Cleveland's stars fail to carry the team, its contention chances will be short-lived.
Chicago White Sox: Downside
6 of 21
PECOTA: ~83-80
The Chicago White Sox didn't spare any expense while trying to make themselves into contenders over the winter. They spent $151.5 million in free agency, and they extended top prospect Luis Robert and traded for former top prospect Nomar Mazara.
However, the White Sox still have plenty of downside.
Their offense arguably has only three hitters—Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Yasmani Grandal—who are in their primes. The success of their mound staff, meanwhile, hinges on unproven guys like Reynaldo Lopez (age 26), Dylan Cease (24) and Michael Kopech (23).
Ultimately, Chicago's new-look roster may prove to be richer in name value than actual value.
Houston Astros: Pitching Depth
7 of 21
PECOTA: 98-64
There are, shall we say, bigger stories about the Houston Astros right now than how they addressed their roster over the winter.
But the latter isn't exactly a non-story, particularly in relation to how they arguably neglected their pitching staff.
Said staff was the class of the American League while it had Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Will Harris last year. But all three departed Houston via free agency, and the club's only response was to pinch pennies and make no new additions of consequence.
That may not doom the Astros in the regular season, but it could be an issue if they come up against high-powered clubs like the Yankees and Twins in October.
Los Angeles Angels: Pitching Upside
8 of 21
PECOTA: 87-75
Though there were also other reasons that the Los Angeles Angels lost 90 games last year, their pitching was easily their biggest flaw.
Their hurlers racked up a 5.12 ERA (25th in MLB) and the fewest wins above replacement in the American League, according to Baseball Reference.
The Angels have since added Dylan Bundy, Julio Teheran and Matt Andriese, and they can look forward to Shohei Ohtani's return to the mound in May.
But Ohtani is the only one of the bunch with ace-level talent, and he'll obviously be too busy hitting to handle the workload of a typical ace—which is to say that the Angels' pitching staff doesn't so much lack depth as it does upside.
Oakland Athletics: Unproven Youth
9 of 21
PECOTA: 85-77
Their projection may not reflect as much, but the Oakland Athletics are likely better than the Angels and maybe even as good as the Yankees, Twins and Astros.
After winning 97 games in 2018 and 2019, the A's could win at least that many in 2020.
Of course, taking such an optimistic view of the A's requires believing in the various youngsters they're trusting to help carry them in 2020. That includes catcher Sean Murphy (age 25), infielder Franklin Barreto (23)and pitchers Jesus Luzardo (22) and A.J. Puk (24). They're talented yet unproven.
If those players don't live up to their billing, the A's may be in for a bumpy ride.
Texas Rangers: Offensive Downside
10 of 21
PECOTA: 73-89
Assuming Corey Kluber can put a difficult 2019 season behind him, he and the rest of his rotation mates—Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles—could pitch the Texas Rangers into this year's playoffs.
But sooner or later, the offense will need to pull its weight too.
Guys like Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor must prove they have gas in the tank. Willie Calhoun must be ready for the big-time, while Joey Gallo must stay healthy. Danny Santana can't regress from his 2019 breakout.
That's a lot that could go right but also a lot that could go wrong.
New York Mets: Bullpen Volatility
11 of 21
PECOTA: 88-74
As Mike Petriello of MLB.com pointed out, PECOTA isn't the only projection system that rates the New York Mets highly. That speaks to the potential upside of their offense, rotation and bullpen, respectively.
Yet the quality of New York's bullpen is debatable.
It could indeed be very good if Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia stay healthy and live up to their stellar track records. But if all three fail to recover from rough campaigns in 2019, the Mets' pen could once again rank among baseball's worst.
In that scenario, the team could have a tough time surviving what's sure to be a tough fight in the National League East.
Washington Nationals: World Series Hangover
12 of 21
PECOTA: 87-75
The Washington Nationals' loss of Anthony Rendon can't be disregarded.
When the third baseman accepted a $245 million deal from the Angels, the Nats were stripped of the best player from last year's World Series-winning effort.
But more so than Rendon's absence, the Nats should be worried about a possible World Series hangover in 2020. Given that no team has won back-to-back championships since the Yankees won three straight in 1998, 1999 and 2000, it's hard to deny that such a thing exists.
If the Nationals are going to buck the trend, it would help if they took it easy on aces Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin after they combined for a whopping 673 innings throughout 2019 (including playoffs).
Atlanta Braves: Offensive Downside
13 of 21
PECOTA: 83-79
The Atlanta Braves are probably better than their projection indicates.
They did win 97 games last year, after all, and they put themselves in line for better things in 2020 by padding their depth over the winter.
Yet the Braves also failed to retain Josh Donaldson, who helped drive their offense last season with a .900 OPS and 37 home runs. To account for that, they need Marcell Ozuna to live up to his peripherals and for fellow newcomer Travis d'Arnaud to carry over his strong finish to 2019.
If that doesn't happen, the trio of Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies will have a heavy load to carry this season.
Philadelphia Phillies: Pitching Depth
14 of 21
PECOTA: 77-85
The Philadelphia Phillies have a star-studded roster and a new manager in Joe Girardi who knows what he's doing, so it's safe to assume that they won't actually do worse than the .500-ish efforts of their 2018 and 2019 iterations.
Yet it's also not out of the question that they will, in part because their roster is oddly lacking in stability despite all its stars.
That's especially true of the Phillies' mound staff. It struggled with a 4.53 ERA in 2019, and it only got one notable addition over the offseason.
That one new addition, of course, was Zack Wheeler. Though he'll be paid like an ace over the next five years, he won't be one if he fails to rise above his mediocre track record.
Cincinnati Reds: Defense
15 of 21
PECOTA: 86-76
The Cincinnati Reds have arguably the best starting rotation in the National League. They should also hit a lot better than they did in 2019, and their bullpen is anchored by a solid core of late-inning relievers.
How well the Reds will field the ball is another matter.
Though they racked up 58 defensive runs saved in 2019, key contributors such as Jose Iglesias, Jose Peraza and Yasiel Puig are now gone. Likewise, their key newcomers—Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama—all come with defensive questions.
Any issues the Reds have on defense wouldn't necessarily keep them out of the postseason, but they could spell trouble if and when they get there.
Chicago Cubs: Pitching Depth
16 of 21
PECOTA: ~85-78
The Chicago Cubs will have a very different look for 2020 if they do something foolish like, say, trade Kris Bryant. But for the moment, they likely have the goods to bounce back from a humbling 2019 season that left them short of the playoffs.
This is, however, assuming that their pitching staff cooperates.
Tyler Chatwood, who's stepping into Cole Hamels' vacated shoes, is a downgrade for the Cubs rotation. Their bullpen, meanwhile, could feel the losses of Brandon Kintzler, Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and David Phelps.
If both units struggle in 2020, it's going to be another difficult season on the North Side.
St. Louis Cardinals: Offensive Firepower
17 of 21
PECOTA: 80-82
Even in an offseason full of inexplicable actions, arguably the most inexplicable one was the St. Louis Cardinals' failure to sign or trade for an impact hitter.
Their offense was below-average at scoring runs last season, and it finally collapsed by scoring only six runs in four games in the National League Championship Series. Yet rather than go out of their way to fix the problem, the Cardinals let Marcell Ozuna go and basically shrugged at making additions.
Granted, they might still pull off a late blockbuster. For instance, Nolan Arenado is still out there just waiting to be traded for.
But for now, they are banking on getting better results from a noticeably weaker offense.
Milwaukee Brewers: Offensive and Pitching Upside
18 of 21
PECOTA: 79-83
Though the Milwaukee Brewers must still be taken seriously as contenders, there's little question that they're playing with fire after prioritizing low-risk additions over high-impact additions during the winter.
They could be good if certain newcomers pan out. To name just a few, guys like Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak, Josh Lindblom and Brett Anderson.
Alternatively, it's just as likely that they'll find themselves missing former standouts like Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, Gio Gonzalez, Zach Davies and Drew Pomeranz.
If they do, they could finish closer to last place than first in the NL Central.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Injuries
19 of 21
PECOTA: ~103-60
The Los Angeles Dodgers looked like the best team in the National League even before they added Mookie Betts, David Price and Brusdar Graterol.
Now that they have, it's no contest.
But like the Yankees, it's not hard to imagine the Dodgers being undone by injuries in 2020. Specifically, three of their best starters (Price, Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood) come with durability red flags. The same is true of two of their best hitters (Justin Turner and Corey Seager).
All this could spell trouble if the injury bug develops a craving for Dodgers players.
San Diego Padres: Downside
20 of 21
PECOTA: 79-83
The San Diego Padres probably can't topple the Dodgers, but they might contend for a wild-card spot if enough things bounce in their favor. In theory, they could have a more functional offense and a deeper pitching staff than they did last season.
Yet reality could tell a different story.
Unless Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers hit better than they did in 2019, the Padres will miss Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe. Pitching-wise, much depends on Garrett Richards and Dinelson Lamet staying healthy.
If these things don't break right for the Padres, a 10th straight losing season will be in order.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Bullpen Depth
21 of 21
PECOTA: 79-83
The Arizona Diamondbacks also face a tall task in overcoming the Dodgers, but they surely have a better shot at a wild-card berth than the Padres. After adding Madison Bumgarner, Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun, they're equipped to improve on last season's 85 wins.
Yet Arizona's bullpen doesn't inspire much confidence.
It posted a modest 4.26 ERA with a relatively low strikeout rate last year. Newcomers Junior Guerra and Hector Rondon may not be able to help that much with boosting these numbers.
If there's a bright side for the Diamondbacks, it's that the Nationals just proved that a deep bullpen isn't entirely necessary for winning a World Series.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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