Giancarlo Stanton, Yoenis Cespedes and the MLB X-Factors Coming Off Injuries
Nobody may be more excited for the 2020 Major League Baseball season than the guys who were too hurt to play in 2019.
Since that's a long list, we've narrowed it down to the 10 biggest X-factors for the coming season.
We considered only guys who missed all or most of the last campaign and who generally weren't themselves when they could get on the field. Beyond that, they're bound by talent that's strong enough to sway pennant races so long as they stay healthy.
We'll proceed in order from least to most potential star power.
Yoenis Cespedes, LF, New York Mets
1 of 10
Yoenis Cespedes has had quite the ride with the New York Mets since arriving at the 2015 trade deadline.
He spent the rest of that season super-charging their run to the World Series, and he kept it up with an All-Star campaign in 2016. But in the time since he signed a four-year, $110 million contract in November 2016, it's been one injury after another.
Cespedes played in only 119 games across 2017 and 2018 and none in 2019, which he missed while recovering from heel surgeries and a broken ankle. Because the latter happened in a bizarre off-field incident, Cespedes agreed to restructure his 2020 salary from $29.5 million to only $6 million guaranteed.
The 34-year-old can earn up to $20 million if he makes 650 plate appearances this upcoming season, but first, he has to make the Mets roster. That's no sure thing, given that the club's offensive depth chart is already crowded.
Still, Cespedes will have a shot if the Mets smell a chance to have a 30-homer slugger. To this end, he's already demonstrated that the raw power he used to rack up 66 home runs in 2015 and 2016 is alive and well.
Andrew McCutchen, LF, Philadelphia Phillies
2 of 10
Andrew McCutchen's debut season with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2019 started out well, but then he tore the ACL in his left knee while trying to avoid a tag in early June.
Though it isn't yet guaranteed that McCutchen will be ready for Opening Day on March 26, that's where he's setting his sights.
"The plan for me is to be ready," he said Monday, according to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "I'm doing everything I have to do to get ready."
No matter what happens, the Phillies probably can't expect McCutchen to be for them what he was for the Pittsburgh Pirates between 2011 and 2015, when he was an annual All-Star and the National League MVP in 2013. He's 33 now, and he doesn't have all five tools anymore.
The Phillies will, however, presumably be happy if McCutchen picks up where he left off in 2019. Through 59 games, the first season of his three-year, $50 million contract yielded a solid .834 OPS and 10 home runs. More of that could only help the Phillies improve after consecutive .500-ish seasons.
Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Houston Astros
3 of 10
Sans Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, the Houston Astros starting rotation isn't looking as formidable as it did last season. But that will change if Lance McCullers Jr. recaptures his best form.
After having Tommy John surgery in November 2018, the 26-year-old sat out all of 2019. But he's good to go now, as he was cleared as 100 percent healthy for spring training as far back as December.
Though McCullers had ups and downs between 2015 and 2018, he generally pitched well with a 3.67 ERA and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He was also an All-Star in 2017, and that may not be the last time he earns that honor if his stuff is the same as before his surgery.
McCullers boasted a mid-90s fastball, yet his sharp curveball was his primary pitch. In fact, he trusted it so much in Game 7 of the 2017 American League Championship Series that he threw it 24 times in a row to collect the final six outs.
The scary possibility is McCullers' stuff could get a post-surgery bump—e.g., some pitchers come back throwing harder than they did before—and become even nastier.
.jpg?w=256 "MLB Farm System Rankings")
Sean Manaea, LHP, Oakland Athletics
4 of 10
Elsewhere in the American League West, the Oakland Athletics have question marks in their rotation after losing Tanner Roark, Homer Bailey and Brett Anderson to free agency.
They should, however, be excited about top-prospect lefties Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. Likewise, they can have even higher hopes for Sean Manaea now that he's healthy.
The 28-year-old was a well-regarded prospect when he debuted in 2016, and he spent the next three seasons putting together a solid resume. He compiled a 3.94 ERA over 464 innings, and he notably pitched a no-hitter over the eventual world champion Boston Red Sox in 2018.
Manaea unfortunately had to undergo surgery on his left shoulder in September of that year, and it took him nearly 12 months to get back on the mound for the A's. Yet it was like he never went anywhere, as he posted a 1.21 ERA with 30 strikeouts and seven walks in five starts.
Because that effectively reaffirmed Manaea's place at the top of Oakland's rotation, he merely needs to keep doing his thing in 2020.
Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Los Angeles Angels
5 of 10
There was nothing keeping Shohei Ohtani from hitting last season, and he indeed hit well with an .848 OPS and 18 home runs. Nevertheless, the Los Angeles Angels surely missed his pitching.
Ohtani was barred from taking the hill last season after having Tommy John surgery in October 2018. Even now, he's not all the way back. Unless the Angels deviate from their plan, he won't make his return to the mound until the middle of May.
"I was getting prepared to start the year on Opening Day," Ohtani said via his interpreter, per the Associated Press (h/t ESPN). "But if that's what the team wants me to do, then I'll be prepared to delay my debut. I don't see any problems."
When Ohtani does return to pitching, the Angels can hope to see what they did from him in 2017. As in, a high-90s fastball and plentiful GIF-friendly sliders and splitters. Albeit in only 10 starts, he used those weapons to rack up a 3.31 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 51.2 innings.
If Ohtani has any more where that came from, he'll provide a huge boost to a rotation that was baseball's worst in 2019.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Cleveland Indians
6 of 10
Carlos Carrasco got roughed up at the outset of 2019 and then promptly found himself on the injured list in June with what was only described as a "blood condition" at the time.
Carrasco revealed in July that he had leukemia. He nonetheless said he'd be back by the end of the month, and his actual return to the mound was only delayed until September. He spent the season's final month coming out of the Cleveland Indians' bullpen.
By all accounts, Carrasco is all the way back as he prepares for the 2020 season. And with Corey Kluber out of the picture and Mike Clevinger recovering from knee surgery, the Indians surely need Carrasco to reclaim his status as one of baseball's top starters.
The right-hander, who'll turn 33 on March 21, put up a 3.40 ERA with a 5.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio between 2015 and 2018. He mostly did that through the use of a mid-90s fastball and a filthy slider that worked very well in tandem.
If all goes well, Carrasco can get back on track and perhaps earn an overdue All-Star nod this season.
Corey Kluber, RHP, Texas Rangers
7 of 10
Speaking of Kluber, he's also out to re-establish himself in 2020.
It wasn't that long ago that Kluber was the best pitcher in the American League. Between 2014 and 2018, he averaged a 2.85 ERA and 218 innings per season and collected two Cy Young Awards. He was also worth more WAR than any other AL hurler, per Baseball Reference.
But in 2019, basically nothing went right. He started off slowly with a 5.80 ERA through seven starts, and then he had his pitching arm broken by a line drive. Just when he was on the verge of returning from that in August, a strained oblique ended his season.
All this explains why the Texas Rangers got such a good deal on Kluber, 33, when they acquired him from Cleveland in December. Now all they have to do is hope he stays healthy and maybe that he recovers some of the velocity he's lost in recent seasons.
Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
8 of 10
There's no telling what Tyler Glasnow might have done in 2019 if a forearm injury hadn't left him stuck on the injured list for most of the season.
In 12 outings on either side of his absence, the 26-year-old was utterly dominant with a 1.78 ERA, 76 strikeouts and only 14 walks in 60.2 innings. Out of all pitchers who faced at least 200 batters, only Boston Red Sox closer Brandon Workman allowed a lower OPS.
Judging from what Glasnow was throwing at them, it's hard to blame hitters for having such a hard time with him. He worked off a fastball that sat at 97 mph with cutting action, and hitters had to defend against a 12-to-6 curveball that disappeared at the hitting zone.
Though Glasnow had surgery on his right wrist in November, he told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that it was "super minor." He was 100 percent healthy when he reported for spring training.
As long as he can stay that way, Glasnow could mount a run at the AL Cy Young Award this season.
Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees
9 of 10
The New York Yankees sorely missed Luis Severino last season.
The hard-throwing right-hander came down with a bum shoulder during spring training, and it kept him out of action until September 17. By then, Yankees starters had already endured more than their share of struggles en route to a final ERA of 4.51.
Severino, who turns 26 on Thursday, is now healthy as he prepares for 2020. If he has his way, this season will be a lot like the 2017 and 2018 seasons that made him a star.
He made 63 starts across those campaigns and posted a 3.18 ERA with a 4.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was also one of only eight pitchers to accumulate as much as 10 WAR. His 97.6 mph heater was the fastest among qualifying starters, and he showed hitters an electric slider and changeup.
If Severino can be that guy again, he might give $324 million man Gerrit Cole a run for his money as the Yankees' best pitcher.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, New York Yankees
10 of 10
The Yankees offense, meanwhile, did fine without Giancarlo Stanton last season. Its final tally of 306 home runs came just one shy of the Minnesota Twins' total for a new all-time record.
Naturally, one can't help but wonder how many bombs the Bronx Bombers would have dropped if Stanton had played in more than 18 games.
Stanton was initially sidelined for a couple of months by a strained biceps and then for a couple more by an injured knee. Because he's now on the wrong side of 30 and these are far from the only injuries on his track record, it's not a foregone conclusion that he'll stay on the field in 2020.
But if he does, he stands a good chance of reminding everyone how dangerous he can be. He won the NL MVP on the strength of 59 home runs and a 1.007 OPS as recently as 2017. Even in a "down" season in his first year with the Yankees in 2018, he mustered an .852 OPS and 38 homers.
Even if Stanton's 2020 season is a happy medium between those two campaigns, he can be an All-Star and MVP contender.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
.jpg?w=480 "MLB Farm System Rankings")
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
