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Super Bowl Odds 2020: Money Line, Over/Under, Latest 49ers vs. Chiefs Spread

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistJanuary 28, 2020

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) before the NFL AFC Championship football game against the Tennessee Titans Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, MO. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Kansas City Chiefs have held firm as the Super Bowl LIV favorite since the matchup with the San Francisco 49ers was determined.

Since the end of conference championship weekend, the AFC winner has fluctuated between a one-point and 1.5-point favorite on the spread. 

The over/under for the clash at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami has settled at 54.5 points after some upward movement in the last week. 

Due to the expected tight nature of the contest, the money lines, which typically carry some value for the underdog, are nearly even.

The current lines make betting on the Super Bowl a bit easier since you are essentially picking a straight-up winner with a minuscule spread, and because of that, the real drama could come with the total. 

                

Super Bowl 54 Odds

Via Caesars.

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Spread: Kansas City (-1) 

Over/Under: 54.5

Money Line: Kansas City (-117; bet $117 to win $100); San Francisco (-103) 

           

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No matter where the spread finishes before kickoff, it is expected to be one of the smallest for a title matchup.

If the line remains at one point, it would be the third spread of its kind in Super Bowl history, per Action Network's Evan Abrams. 

The last one-point favorite was the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX against the Seattle Seahawks. 

The matchup is expected to be so close because both sides were dominant in their two previous postseason contests. 

Although the Chiefs struggled with the Houston Texans at the start of the divisional round, they rallied to earn a 20-point victory on home soil. 

In the AFC Championship Game, Andy Reid's squad defeated the Tennessee Titans by 11 points, and its defense held Derrick Henry to 69 rushing yards on 19 carries. 

San Francisco dominated both the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers by holding the NFC North teams to 30 points, 83 rushing yards and forcing five turnovers. 

Despite the impressive performances of both defenses, the projected total for Sunday's game has risen a few points from the opening lines that were between 51.5 and 52.5. 

The high number is taking into account the offensive production of both sides, who combined for 150 points over the last two rounds. 

Patrick Mahomes threw for 615 yards and eight scores in the wins over his two AFC South foes through identical 23-for-35 passing lines. 

The 49ers did the majority of their offensive damage on the ground by totaling 471 rushing yards.

If you were to apply the current over/under to both sets of 18 games, the over in 49ers contests would have been 6-12 and 8-10 in Kansas City's clashes. 

Those numbers are affected most by the defensive performances of the two sides. San Francisco held 11 opponents to 20 points or fewer, while Kansas City contained eight foes within those parameters. 

While the over may seem like the easy pick due to Mahomes' electricity in the passing game and San Francisco's ability to run the ball, the under could be in play because of the two defenses. 

Both squads contained their postseason opponents under 100 rushing yards, and the Chiefs have allowed a single foe to record more than 110 yards on the ground since Week 13. 

Kyle Shanahan's squad has allowed two quarterbacks to throw for more than 300 passing yards, so its defensive unit could limit Kansas City's strength through the air. 

If those trends hold true for even a half, the under could be in with a great chance of hitting. 

Since the gap on the money line is smaller than most NFL games, the preferred play comes down to which side you believe will win. 

At -117, Kansas City holds decent payout value as the favorite, which is not typically the case for NFL games. 

The projected small margin also means San Francisco carries less value than most football underdogs.

Although San Francisco has been able to hold a majority of passing attacks at bay, Kansas City may have too many weapons for its defensive unit to contain. 

Between Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins, Mahomes has plenty of targets to pick apart the 49ers secondary with. 

Mahomes' elusiveness in the pocket helps with his distribution down the field, as does the play of his offensive line, which has allowed three sacks in the last four games. 

If Nick Bosa and Co. can't get to the Kansas City signal-caller, the AFC champion could create separation on the scoreboard and earn the franchise's first title in 50 years. 

              

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference

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