Predicting the Landing Spot for the Top NFL Free Agent at Every Position

NFL free agency is a hit-or-miss minefield for teams.

They spend valuable assets in hopes of securing a strong complementary piece to quality drafting. The downside is whiffing on a poor fit and wasting valuable capital.  

Case in point: One offseason ago, Za'Darius Smith signed with the Green Bay Packers and then lifted them to a conference title game, and Nick Foles put an $88 million dent in the Jacksonville Jaguars' ambitions. 

Looking ahead to this year's market, which opens March 18, our top free agents at each position (save for special teams) are based on past and potential future production and stand a reasonable shot of leaving their teams—Tom Brady and Drew Brees, for example, don't—though it's not a guarantee they'll do so. 

Those free agents have a top predicted fit based on roster needs, franchise trajectory and details such as age, production and value.

QB: Philip Rivers

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Of the big-name quarterbacks, Philip Rivers seems likeliest to leave his team, so he gets the nod. 

It might be a mutual feeling between him and the Los Angeles Chargers. Rivers has said he'd rather play for another franchise than retire, and Jay Glazer reported Monday on The Herd that the team will move on from its longtime starter, though NFL Network's Ian Rapoport later reported the franchise is still weighing its options. 

If the Chargers make a move, Rivers' list of potential suitors won't be lengthy. In 2019, while he threw for 4,615 yards, he regressed in completion percentage (66.0) and touchdowns (23) while throwing eight more interceptions (20) than in 2018. His touchdown percentage dipped from 6.3 to 3.9.

The 38-year-old's options might be limited to a rebuilder, which brings to mind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That particular rebuilder doesn't normally have a shot at big-name quarterbacks, and if the front office there moves on from its own free agent QB, Jameis Winston, it's a viable option. 

Maybe a career-finishing stint in Tampa isn't something anyone envisioned for Rivers, but he'd get a shot at turning a franchise around, and we've seen head coach Bruce Arians revive veterans such as Carson Palmer before. 

Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

RB: Derrick Henry

Gail Burton/Associated Press

It took just one epic season from Derrick Henry to brush aside any Melvin Gordon III conversation at the forefront of free agency. 

Henry put the Tennessee Titans on his back to the tune of 1,540 yards and 16 scores on a 5.1 yards-per-carry average in 2019. His career average is 4.8 yards, and he has 38 rushing touchdowns and missed just two games in four years. 

Don't forget—how could anyone?—the recent playoff run in which he put up 446 yards and two scores on a 5.4 yards-per-carry average, including two of three games with at least 180 rushing yards. 

Henry is only 26 and headed right into his prime. While the notion of paying up big for a running back is polarizing, the Titans would be foolish not to give him what he wants if the plan is to keep rolling with Ryan Tannehill under center. 

Tennessee has $51.4 million in cap space, and it'll be cheaper to secure him before a bidding war erupts. 

Landing Spot: Tennessee Titans

WR: Amari Cooper

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys won't let a franchise passer like Dak Prescott walk, but Amari Cooper might be a different story. 

There's no doubt Cooper is the best wideout potentially headed to the market, and from a Dallas perspective, it will be hard to let him get away after he put up 725 yards and six scores over just nine games following a midseason trade in 2018. 

Cooper extended that to 16 games with the Cowboys in 2019, posting 1,189 yards and eight touchdowns with a career-high 15.1 per-reception average. He had a catch percentage of 66.4 percent, and not only did he tally 54 first downs, he also dropped just five passes on 119 targets. 

Did anyone mention Cooper will only be 26 years old in June? He'll likely be the highest-paid wideout if he slips to the market, and knowing how important he's been to Prescott's success, the Cowboys don't figure to blink at using some of their $77.9 million in cap space to get him a long-term deal. 

Landing Spot: Dallas Cowboys

TE: Austin Hooper

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Austin Hooper quietly ascended the tight end ladder this season, recording career highs in yardage (787), touchdowns (six) and receptions (75) on all of 97 targets. 

Besides that, it's easy to see why a large chunk of the NFL figures to have an interest in a 6'4" target who's on a massive upswing. The 2016 third-rounder is only 25 years old and is one of those chesspieces offensive coordinators love. 

Aside from the front-facing numbers, Hooper had a 77.3 catch percentage and moved the chains 41 times for the Atlanta Falcons, also a career best. At Pro Football Focus, he finished with a strong grade of 78.3. 

Given the team's top-heavy payroll, which is invested in a bunch of stars, Hooper could make it to the market, where a team such as the Indianapolis Colts would be more than happy to overpay to get him. Eric Ebron won't be back, and the Colts, with $90.4 million in cap space, could use a surefire producer at tight end to help the post-Andrew Luck quarterback situation, which appears like it could be in continued flux. 

Landing Spot: Indianapolis Colts

OL: Brandon Scherff

Jason E. Miczek/Associated Press

Predicting which offensive linemen will be available when the market opens March 18 is difficult because in most cases, teams are desperate enough for help that they don't let the top guys get there unless they have a bona fide replacement. 

But Washington is a little different given the strife with lineman Trent Williams. If the front office bumbled that situation to an irreparable point, it's possible it will let a talent like Scherff slip away too. It's also hard to argue Brandon Scherff isn't one of football's best linemen. 

Scherff entered the league at No. 5 in 2015 and has been a rock for the Redskins since. He's had injury issues in recent years, but Pro Football Focus still gave him a grade of 75.0 over 11 games in 2019—right in line with his usual output.  

A bidding war would benefit a team such as the New York Jets, who signed Le'Veon Bell to a four-year, $52.5 million contract and got just 1,250 yards from scrimmage from him. Still, increasing the O-line talent with a player like Scherff could mean seeing a worthwhile return on the Bell investment. In addition, the Jets need to do whatever it takes to keep quarterback Sam Darnold upright and healthy. 

If that means paying to lure Scherff to town, which would address one of the roster's biggest weak points and allow the use of draft picks on other spots, the Jets have $56.3 million in free space to make it happen. 

Landing Spot: New York Jets     

DL: Yannick Ngakoue

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Yannick Ngakoue has terrorized quarterbacks for years, which will get him handsomely rewarded. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the NFL's most cap-strapped teams because of the Foles deal and otherwise, so paying for Ngakoue with Josh Allen already blossoming into an elite player might not be the best idea.

Ngakoue will be worth every penny for whatever team does hand over a blank check, though. He's posted eight or more sacks in each of his four seasons and even has a year in which he produced six forced fumbles. In 2019 alone, besides eight sacks, he posted 10 hurries and 27 pressures. 

A team that wants to make a splash and improve a weakness needs to look no further—and the Las Vegas Raiders come to mind. The Raiders still haven't rebounded from the 2018 trade of Khalil Mack, and while Maxx Crosby is breaking out (10 sacks as a rookie in 2019), the team's 32 sacks were among the league's fewest. Luckily, Las Vegas has $57.1 million to spend. 

Landing Spot: Las Vegas Raiders

LB: Cory Littleton

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Cory Littleton might not get much national recognition, but he registers among the NFL's best at what he does. 

Littleton, during four seasons with the Los Angeles Rams, has blossomed into a stat-sheet stuffer and key contributor. The linebacker put up 7.5 of his 8.5 career sacks over his past two seasons. He's had at least 125 combined tackles in each of those two years and only missed five tackles in 2019 while tallying a strong 78.9 grade at Pro Football Focus. 

The Rams would probably like to keep him, but they only have $19.5 million in cap space, and that's before considering other free agents like Dante Fowler Jr. and Andrew Whitworth. 

Compare that to the Cincinnati Bengals, who not only have one of the NFL's worst linebacker corps but also $49 million to spend. Head coach Zac Taylor knows all about Littleton, who crossed paths with the former L.A. quarterbacks coach with the Rams in 2017 and 2018. The 26-year-old would start in a massive role and allow the team to focus draft capital elsewhere.

Landing Spot: Cincinnati Bengals

CB: Byron Jones

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

If the Cowboys pay up to keep Prescott and Cooper, cornerback Byron Jones could slip away. 

That would be a shame for the Dallas defense given Jones' ability to play all over the field, which helped him rack up an incredible 43 passes defensed since 2015. 

In 2019, Jones was right in line with his usual career numbers, getting targeted 64 times and surrendering just 34 completions with six passes defensed and just one missed tackle on 44 combined. It shouldn't be surprising to hear he garnered a strong 76.1 Pro Football Focus grade. 

Should Jones leave Dallas, he could land with a division rival. The Philadelphia Eagles have a major need at corner and about $43.7 million in free space, and allowed the third-most yardage through the air per game in 2018 (14th-most in 2019). 

Landing Spot: Philadelphia Eagles 

S: Anthony Harris

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

Minnesota Vikings safety Anthony Harris has been one of the NFL's most criminally underrated players for quite some time. 

Harris, undrafted in 2015, has been a workhorse for Mike Zimmer's defense since then, posting nine interceptions, 21 passes defensed and 180 total tackles. 

Last year, Harris recorded six of his nine career interceptions on just 23 targets, of which 15 were completed with no touchdown. While the pick rate will regress, he's on an ascent on a per-year basis, which in 2019 resulted in a grade of 90.5 at Pro Football Focus. 

While the Vikings are in a bad cap situation (over by $11.1 million), restructuring guys such as Riley Reiff and outright cutting underperformers Xavier Rhodes and Everson Griffen should do enough to help the front office prevent one of the league's premier safeties from hitting the open market. 

Landing Spot: Minnesota Vikings

Contract info courtesy of Spotrac.