Examining the Odds of Mega Extensions for Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and More
Extension season has come to Major League Baseball.
Just within the last two weeks, Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder David Peralta and Minnesota Twins third baseman Miguel Sano have signed contract extensions for a combined $102 million and 12 years.
Rather than list all the remaining extension candidates around MLB—because there are a whole bunch—we limited our focus to eight players who are potentially worth upwards of $100 million and asked: What are the odds they'll actually sign between now and the end of spring training?
We plucked these eight guys from the pool of players who began 2020 with arbitration eligibility. Otherwise, we assessed their signing likelihood based on how much their teams can offer and how much incentive they have to sign now.
We'll start with the least likely extendee and end with the most likely.
Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
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Even without an extension, Mookie Betts will be one of baseball's highest-paid players this season.
As the deadline for teams and players to exchange arbitration figures loomed last Friday, Betts and the Boston Red Sox agreed on a $27 million salary for 2020. It's a new record for an arbitration-eligible player. Nolan Arenado's $26 million deal with the Colorado Rockies in 2019 was the previous standard.
Now the question is whether Betts, who ranks second to Mike Trout in wins above replacement since 2015, according to Baseball Reference, will make like Arenado and forgo his upcoming free agency by signing a long-term extension with Boston.
It's perhaps not entirely out of the question. If the deep-pocketed Red Sox offer Betts fair market value, the 2018 American League MVP might just take it in lieu of betting on himself to boost his value even higher with a huge walk year.
Yet this is a "fat chance" scenario. Betts has thus far been keen on betting on himself, even to the point that he rejected a $200 million offer in 2017. And while the Red Sox might change the 27-year-old's mind, they also might have reservations about adding another huge contract to their already bloated books.
Odds: Slim-to-None
Marcus Semien, Oakland Athletics
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Elsewhere on the topic of MVP-caliber performers, there's also Marcus Semien.
Though he never had a real chance of beating Mike Trout or Alex Bregman for the award, Semien was a deserving third-place finisher in the 2019 AL MVP race. He finished the year with an .892 OPS, 33 home runs and 8.1 WAR.
Semien has already parlayed his breakthrough season into an agreement with the Oakland Athletics on a $13 million salary for 2020. Contrary to Mookie Betts, however, Semien may still want more from the A's.
Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported in November that Semien, 29, had informed the A's he was interested in a contract extension. That sounds about right for a guy who's coming off a career year yet must also be mindful that it's a clear outlier relative to the rest of his output.
Trouble is, the A's don't do big-money extensions. They've never done one worth $100 million. Heck, they've only ever done one worth as much as $50 million, and it was for Eric Chavez way back in 2004.
So if Semien is going to sign for big bucks, chances are it'll be on next winter's free-agent market after yet another MVP-caliber turn in 2020.
Odds: Slim-to-None
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
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Meanwhile in New York, Aaron Judge is a much richer man than he was before.
After pulling in mere six-figure salaries with the New York Yankees between 2017 and 2019, Judge agreed to an $8.5 million deal for 2020, his first year of arbitration eligibility.
Granted, even that figure still overwhelmingly favors the Yankees. Judge's 1.049 OPS, 52 home runs and 8.1 WAR made him the runner-up for the AL MVP in 2017. Despite some injuries, he's still mustered a .920 OPS, 54 homers and 10.9 WAR over the last two seasons.
In the past, neither Judge nor the Yankees have been in a rush to do an extension. Yet it's possible both sides will feel more urgency this spring.
For his part, Judge may want to cash in before his injury history goes from bad to worse. For their part, the Yankees might see a chance to get a good deal before the 27-year-old achieves lasting durability and begins recreating his stellar '17 campaign on an annual basis.
Alternatively, Judge may be determined to bet on himself, and the Yankees may be hesitant to do anything until his injury issues are firmly in the past. In that case, the stalemate between the two sides will proceed.
Odds: Slim
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George Springer, Houston Astros
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Right now, a contract extension between George Springer and the Houston Astros might seem like a long shot.
Indeed, there's a wide gap between what Springer and the Astros think he should be paid in 2020 alone. On Friday, he filed for $22.5 million while the Astros countered at $17.5 million. As things stand now, the two sides are set for a hearing that will result in Springer getting one figure or the other in February.
However, that's not a fait accompli. Players and teams can keep negotiating during the run-up to an arbitration hearing, and there's a chance Springer and the Astros could borrow a page from Nolan Arenado and the Rockies: Do a one-year deal one day and then a long-term deal shortly after.
Like Arenado in 2019, Springer is heading into his final season of arbitration eligibility. And because he's a 30-year-old with a less-than-clean injury history, the three-time All-Star has reasons to be less adamant about reaching free agency than Mookie Betts, who's younger and consistently healthy and productive.
The Astros have already secured Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve for the long haul. If Springer is willing, they might be all too happy to add a long-term deal for him to their books.
Odds: Fair
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
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Compared to the one between George Springer and the Astros, the gap in arbitration filings between Trevor Story and the Rockies doesn't look so bad.
It's less than $1 million wide, as Story filed at $11.5 million and the Rockies filed at $10.8 million. Though they obviously couldn't get anything done by Friday's deadline, it's very much possible Story and the Rockies will come to an agreement before going to a hearing.
The real intrigue lies in whether the Rockies will add Story, who's due for free agency after 2021, to their ever-growing list of contract extensions. They should certainly want to. The 27-year-old has cemented himself as one of baseball's best shortstops over the last two years by racking up a .916 OPS, 72 home runs, 50 stolen bases and 12.0 WAR.
If there's a major complication, it's the Nolan Arenado situation. Unless the Rockies can trade him, his $260 million contract only leaves so much room for them to spend nine figures on Story, as well.
But in the estimation of The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, an Arenado trade has become "inevitable." If and when he does go, the Rockies' improved financial leeway and need for positive publicity could lead to an extension for Story.
Odds: Fair
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
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Suddenly, we're now back in the realm of wide arbitration filing gaps.
On Friday, J.T. Realmuto filed at $12.4 million while the Philadelphia Phillies countered at $10 million. Either figure would make him the fifth-highest paid catcher in baseball, yet he can hardly be blamed for thinking especially highly of himself.
Though the value of catchers isn't easy to pin down, Realmuto has notably topped the WAR charts among catchers at Baseball Reference in each of the last two seasons. Altogether, he's posted an .822 OPS with 46 homers while playing strong defense.
Because Realmuto, 28, is heading into his walk year, he doesn't need to seek anything longer than a one-year pact with the Phillies. Yet there has been some movement on an extension in the past, and MLB.com's Paul Casella reported Friday that the two sides have "mutual interest" in a long-term deal even now.
For the moment, Buster Posey is the only catcher who has ever signed a nine-figure deal. If the Phillies offer to make Realmuto the second, he may gladly accept.
Odds: Good
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs will not have any arbitration hearings this year.
They struck deals with six players on Friday, including stars Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. The former signed for $18.6 million. The latter, for $10 million.
Because Bryant and Baez are both due for free agency after 2021, they might seem to have equally high likelihoods of signing extensions. But in reality, the Cubs are more likely to trade Bryant than they are to extend him. His name has been all over the rumor mill this winter.
Baez, on the other hand, seems safely harbored on the north side of Chicago. And he's apparently fine with things staying that way. Back in November, Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reported that extension negotiations between Bryant and the Cubs were underway.
The Cubs already have a few big deals on their long-term books, so the conditions for extending Baez aren't ideal. But in putting up an .865 OPS and 63 homers while also playing unparalleled defense over the last two years, the 27-year-old has certainly made himself indispensable.
In short, this is a partnership that's likely to last for a while.
Odds: Good
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers still have some unfinished business in arbitration, but they don't have to worry about getting something done with their best player.
On Friday, Cody Bellinger set a new record for a first-time arbitration-eligible player by agreeing to an $11.5 million contract for 2020. And as a Super Two player, he still has three more trips through arbitration ahead of him before he reaches free agency after 2023.
The 24-year-old could continue to bet on himself from here, but the four-year gulf between now and free agency does add some risk to that equation.
If Bellinger instead wants to cash in sooner, there's no time like the present. His value is certainly sky-high in the wake of his 2019 season, in which he won the National League MVP on the strength of a 1.035 OPS, 47 home runs and a league-best 9.0 WAR.
Though the Dodgers have been reluctant to spend big bucks under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, he said last year he "wouldn't be surprised" if the team did some extensions in the near future. If so, a deal with Bellinger ought to be imminent.
Odds: Good
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference. Payroll data courtesy of Roster Resource.
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