ESPN's Mel Kiper, Todd McShay Don't Think Jalen Hurts Will Be Drafted in Round 1

Jalen Hurts is having a strong season for the Oklahoma Sooners, but whether that makes him an appealing NFL prospect is another matter. 

ESPN's Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. both agree that he isn't a first-round prospect, but they disagreed on where he'll land in April's draft. McShay sees him going later on:

"I see Hurts as a Day 3 prospect right now, and a few people I've talked to around the league agree. Actually, I think the third round could be his ceiling. But you have to factor in how Mayfield's and Murray's seasons go. If they look impressive, the Riley factor gets an even bigger bump. After all, Mayfield's first-year success helped Murray's stock. If Mayfield remains inconsistent in Year 2 and Murray continues his rookie struggles, expect the 'Riley scheme' narrative to dull NFL teams' interest in taking an early-round gamble on Hurts."

Kiper sees more upside in Hurts, however:

"I'm more optimistic here. I don't think Hurts is going to be a first-round pick, but he could land in Round 2 if he keeps playing this well. I want to see him against the Longhorns and better competition the rest of the way. Remember, he is doing this for an OU team that replaced four starters along the offensive line and lost its best receiver in Marquise Brown, who was drafted in Round 1 by the Baltimore Ravens. I don't think Hurts is a fluke. He's legit."

Hurts, 21, transferred from Alabama to Oklahoma before this season, with Heisman runner-up Tua Tagovailoa entrenched as the Crimson Tide's starting quarterback. Hurts has been excellent for the Sooners, throwing for 1,523 yards, 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions in five games while completing 75.2 percent of his passes.

He's also rushed for 499 yards and another seven scores, making him one of college football's most dangerous offensive weapons.

But context matters. Those gaudy numbers have come against Houston, South Dakota, UCLA, Texas Tech and Kansas. Among those teams, only Texas Tech (3-2) has a winning record. That changes this week, when No. 11 Texas (4-1) travels to Norman. It will be a huge test both for Oklahoma and for Hurts, and NFL scouts and front offices will surely be paying close attention. 

Don't expect Hurts to be too affected by the pressure, or the stakes of the Red River Shootout, however:

But according to McShay and Kiper, Hurts still has enough question marks to keep him out of the first-round conversation.

How much of his production is a byproduct of Lincoln Riley's quarterback-friendly offensive system? How much has an easy schedule to this point inflated his production? Will more mechanical concerns that McShay cited, like a slow release and difficulty fitting passes into tight windows, limit his draft stock no matter what numbers he posts?

McShay and Kiper disagree on just how much those questions hurt his NFL projection. But they both agree that they'll keep him out of the first round.