Fantasy Baseball 2019 Sleepers: Top Pitchers and Sluggers to Target
Drafting early offers a major advantage for informed fantasy baseball players. Just ask anyone who locked down Domingo Santana weeks or months ago.
In January, the Seattle Mariners outfielder held an average draft position (ADP) of 254 in National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) drafts. That jumped 21 spots in February before climbing all the way to 192 in March.
While that latest going rate is still fair for a slugger who compiled 30 home runs and 15 steals in 2017, anyone drafting this weekend will have to pay a larger tariff. The rising sleeper led supporters to early confirmation bias by going deep twice in Tokyo to start the season.
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Those who drafted weeks ago could have cheaply invested in a bounce-back campaign. In leagues that waited until the last minute, he could now fall off the board by the 150th pick.
If writing this article a week or two ago, Santana still could have qualified for the "Breakout Candidates" portion of the sleepers listed below. These are the players whom FanGraphs' Paul Sporer would call "wide-awake sleepers." While popular picks to progress in 2019, they all have a consensus ADP beyond the top 150, per FantasyPros.
The next group all carry a consensus ADP outside the top 300, making them bench targets in mixed leagues with 30-men rosters. In shallow leagues such as Yahoo Sports' standard game, they could open 2019 on the waiver wire.
While drafters must secure a steady foundation in the early rounds, these cheap upside picks can win leagues. Just ask anyone who stole Blake Snell, Trevor Bauer or Eugenio Suarez last year.
Breakout Candidates
Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians
Ketel Marte, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Garrett Hampson, 2B/SS, Colorado Rockies
Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics
Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins
Tyler Glasnow, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays
Joe Musgrove, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Tyler Skaggs, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Jose Alvarado, RP, Tampa Bay Rays
Trevor May, RP, Minnesota Twins
Deeper Finds
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Washington Nationals
Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Leonys Martin, OF, Cleveland Indians
Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals
Derek Holland, SP, San Francisco Giants
Trevor Richards, SP, Miami Marlins
Matt Strahm, SP/RP, San Diego Padres
Joe Jimenez, RP, Detroit Tigers
Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians
Opportunity is often half the battle. While some sleepers (Garrett Hampson, Matt Strahm, Trevor May) only need a chance to morph into major fantasy commodities, Jake Bauers is here because of his role.
The Cleveland Indians acquired the 23-year-old to replace Michael Brantley in their outfield, and they'll need immediate production to retain their AL Central crown. Roster Resource projects Bauers to bat fifth in a lineup headlined by Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor (once he returns from a calf injury).
Lindor and Ramirez plated 129 and 110 runs, respectively, last season. Projected cleanup hitter Carlos Santana is more patient than incumbent Edwin Encarnacion, so the walk artist could cede RBI opportunities to his new teammate.
Bauers burst out of the gate to slug .491 through his first 47 big league games, only to bat .153 with three homers in August and September. He discussed his roller-coaster arrival with Matthew Florjancic of WKYC.
"Coming in, getting called up and having that immediate success was great in terms of establishing myself and establishing, 'Hey, I can do this. I belong here,'" Bauers said. "It kind of gave me a confidence boost, and then, it quickly turned the other way and I got humbled a little bit."
Nobody truly knows which version of Bauers will surface in 2019, but he's a starter batting in the heart of a top-heavy lineup who notched 16 homers and steals apiece through the minors and majors last season.
Even with a mediocre batting average, he can deliver as a corner infielder or fourth outfielder with 20-plus homers, double-digit steals, and a lofty RBI tally.
Joe Musgrove, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon is gaining traction as a popular—but increasingly pricey—option after the top-tier aces. It wouldn't be shocking, however, if Joe Musgrove emerged as the Pittsburgh Pirates' ace.
Despite posting a 4.06 ERA in 19 starts, the righty showed skill gains foreshadowing a breakout. Chief among them, he issued just 23 walks in 115.1 innings, giving him a lower walk percentage (4.7) than Taillon and all but a dozen starters with at least 100 frames.
That pinpoint control could lead to great things if he ups his strikeouts from last year's 100. An 11.4 percent swinging-strike rate suggests he can do just that. Zack Godley collected 185 strikeouts in 178.1 innings with the identical proportion of swing and misses.
For all the talk of Taillon finding success with his new slider, his teammate also deployed his own more often down the stretch. Per Brooks Baseball, his slider usage percentages increased in June, July and August. Although Musgrove fizzled in September (5.40 ERA), he also posted a 1.01 WHIP and 3.50 fielding independent pitching (FIP) after the All-Star break.
Musgrove throws strikes and induces whiffs. He'll also work roughly half of his starts inside the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. It doesn't get much better than that from a cheap starter.
The late-round pick should at least deliver value as a matchup play. Just don't let the low strikeout rate fool you; he's also an upside play who could make a leap similar to Taillon's 2018 breakout.
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals
Spring stats can often lead drafters into an unwarranted tizzy. Yet when a player coming off a significant injury proves he's healthy and locks down a starting job, it's wise to take notice.
While Jorge Soler wasn't dominating in fantasy leagues using standard scoring, he sported a 123 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) rating prior to fracturing his foot in June. He offered nine long balls in 61 games with a 10.9 walk percentage. Per Baseball Savant, he achieved an average exit velocity of at least 95 mph on 41.0 percent of his batted balls.
A 331 consensus ADP on FantasyPros suggests most drafters already forgot about his immense talent when healthy. He has done his best to refresh their memory by belting four doubles and four homers in 17 spring contests.
According to MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost said Soler is "going to play every day somewhere." Given the desolate nature of their lineup, he could also earn favorable placement in the batting order.
Yost's declaration is likely unattainable, as Soler has never played more than 101 major league games in a season. They haven't decided if he will patrol the outfield or serve as the designated hitter, but the second option could help his chances of avoiding another lengthy injury absence.
Given an assurance of playing time after succeeding in limited work last season, health may be the only obstruction to Soler submitting 20-25 homers. Although expectations have significantly dropped since his torrid 2014 arrival, he's still an intriguing end-of-draft flier.
Note: Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted
