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Super Bowl Odds 2019: Prop Picks, Spread Projections for Patriots vs. Rams

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistJanuary 25, 2019

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) signals from the line of scrimmage during the first quarter of the AFC Championship NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 20, 2019, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
Elise Amendola/Associated Press

The Super Bowl is for everyone. Fans of the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams get to enjoy Super Bowl LIII because their teams are competing for the greatest prize in team sports. Casual NFL fans get to enjoy two of the best teams in football vying for that ultimate prize—though to be fair, they won't be quite as invested as those Rams and Pats diehards.

There are ways to add a little extra something to the action, of course. We're talking about betting, and there is no shortage of wagers that can be made on Super Bowl LIII.

Obviously, you can wager on the outcome of the game itself. There are tons of other prop bets that can be made, though.

Maybe you think the game is going to be a boring blowout. Well, you can predict the number of commercials that will air during the game, the number of songs that will be performed during the halftime show or whether Maroon 5 singer Adam Levine will start the show off wearing a hat (yes, that's a real one).

Join us as we run down some of our favorite prop bets and examine the latest odds and over/unders from OddsShark.

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Super Bowl LIII

Who: New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

When: Sunday, February 3 at 6:30 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: CBS and CBS All Access

Line and Over/Under: NE -2.5, 57

    

Score Prediction Breakdown

When trying to predict the final score—with both the spread and the over/under in mind—it's important to examine both the matchups and the trends for both teams.

The biggest matchup in this game is likely to be the mental battle between Patriots coach Bill Belichick and Rams coach Sean McVay. While McVay is an offensive innovator, Belichick is a master of taking away a team's biggest weapons. This is going to make for an intriguing back-and-forth that should last all four quarters.

We're giving the edge to Belichick in this matchup, both because of his experience and his ability to neutralize the guys McVay most wants to lean on. He did it against Kansas City Chiefs wideout Tyreek Hill (one reception, 42 yards) in the AFC Championship Game—and it's one of the biggest reasons why the Patriots advanced.

Belichick called for a lot of double coverage on Hill, and he may call for a similar strategy against explosive Rams receivers like Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks.

Cooks, don't forget, played for Belichick and the Patriots last season.

However, Belichick is also likely to focus heavily on Todd Gurley, C.J. Anderson and the running game. In true Belichickian fashion, he isn't going to ignore Los Angeles' special teams either.

"They block kicks, they return kicks. They have a fast coverage team," Belichick said of the Rams, per Nick Shook of NFL.com. "They can change field position. Offensively there's a lot of backup situations based on their kicking game—put you on a long field."

Expect Belichick to take away one big aspect from these three phases—the pass, the run and special teams—which will put a ton of pressure on the L.A. defense.

This is why we're ultimately picking the Patriots and the over in this game. While the Rams defense has been better in the playoffs (22.5 points per game allowed), it was quite vulnerable in the regular season, especially against the run.

Los Angeles allowed an average of 122.3 yards rushing (23rd in the NFL) and 24.0 points (20th) per game in the regular season. New England has leaned heavily on the run in the playoffs (150.5 yards per game), and it should be able to control the tempo.

While a slowed-down run-oriented approach would seem to favor the under, this wasn't at all the case in the AFC title game. The score was tied at 31 when the Patriots and the Chiefs entered overtime.

While this game plan does favor the Patriots, don't be surprised if the combined score sits around 60 once again at the end of regulation.

Prediction: Patriots 33, Rams 27

    

Prop Guide (from OddsShark)

There is a variety of props that can be found at OddsShark. Here's a look at some of our favorites, along with our predictions for each.

Top MVP Odds

Tom Brady: 11-10

Jared Goff: 9-4

Todd Gurley: 13-1

Sony Michel: 16-1

C.J. Anderson: 20-1

Aaron Donald: 20-1

James White: 20-1

Julian Edelman: 25-1

Rob Gronkowski: 35-1

Brandin Cooks: 40-1

Robert Woods: 40-1

Prediction: Tom Brady

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

    

Which Player Will Score the First Touchdown?

Sony Michel: 5-1

Todd Gurley: 6-1

C.J. Anderson: 7-1

Brandin Cooks: 15-2

Robert Woods: 15-2

James White: 9-1

Julian Edelman: 9-1

Rob Gronkowski: 9-1

Josh Reynolds: 10-1

Rex Burkhead: 10-1

Prediction: James White

    

Total Touchdowns in the First Half

Over 3.5: 21-20

Under 3.5: 20-27

Prediction: Over

    

Longest Touchdown

Over 46.5: 20-23

Under 46.5: 20-23

Prediction: Over

    

How Many Plays Will Tony Romo Correctly Predict? Over/Under 7.5

Prediction: Under

    

Will Donald Trump Attend the Game?

Prediction: No

    

How Many Songs Will Be Played During the Halftime Show? Over/Under 7.5

Prediction: Over

    

Will Adam Levine Be Wearing a Hat to Start the Halftime Show?

Prediction: No

    

How Many Commercials Will Run During the Super Bowl? Over/Under 96

Prediction: Over  

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