
NFL Playoff Bracket 2019: Picture, Scenarios for AFC, NFC Divisional Round
The second round of the 2018 NFL postseason is set. We're down to eight teams, and they will all be in action this weekend.
The New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs spent last weekend on byes, awaiting the winners of the wild-card round. Unsurprisingly, all four are favored in the divisional round.
However, this doesn't mean we won't have upsets. The opening round was full of them, as three of the four road teams picked up victories.
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We're going to examine some of the top scenarios that could yield upsets this weekend. First, though, we'll run down the full divisional-round schedule and the latest odds and over/unders from OddsShark.
Divisional-Round Schedule, Odds and Over/Unders
Saturday, January 12
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
When: 4:35 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: NBC and NBC Sports App
Line, Over/Under: KC -5.5, 57
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
When: 8:15 p.m ET
TV and Live Stream: Fox and Fox Sports Live
Line, Over/Under: LAR -7, 49
Sunday, January 13
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
When: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: CBS and CBS All Access
Line, Over/Under: NE -4, 45.5
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
When: 4:40 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: Fox and Fox Sports Live
Line, Over/Under: NO -8, 50.5
In addition to the broadcast networks, all playoff games can be viewed on FuboTV.
Possible Upset Scenarios
Indianapolis Colts Dominate on the Ground
The Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses we've seen in some time. Behind the passing of second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, they averaged a league-high 35.3 points per game during the regular season, and they've been hard to defend both through the air and on the ground.
However, the Indianapolis Colts can beat Kansas City by keeping that explosive offense off the field. This can be done by leaning on a rushing attack that took off over the second half of the season.
Leading runner Marlon Mack had another huge game against the Houston Texans on Wild Card Weekend, as Bob Kravitz of The Athletic noted:
The Colts rushed for 200 yards against a Houston team that allowed just 82.7 yards rushing per game in the regular season. They may have even more against a Chiefs team that allowed an average of 132.1 yards rushing per game.
The Chiefs cannot simply key in on the ground attack because Andrew Luck and the passing game are a huge threat.
If Indianapolis is able to control the tempo of the game and keep the Chiefs offense on the bench, it will have a chance of pulling off the upset.
Dallas Cowboys Stop the Run
Slowing Rams running back Todd Gurley is no easy task. However, if the Dallas Cowboys can do that, they'll be able to put pressure on quarterback Jared Goff. This will give them their best chance of pulling off the upset.
In losses to the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles, Gurley was shut down (just 76 combined rushing yards) by strong run defense and by taking him out of L.A.'s game plan. Goff struggled to pick up the slack in those games, and the entire Rams offense suffered as a result.
Dallas' defense has the potential to do the same thing. It just got done holding the league's top rushing attack (160.0 yards per game) to 73 yards rushing. The Seattle Seahawks stuck with the run, and it cost them.
"I think that when you reflect back on it, we were throwing it pretty well in the game," Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson said, per NFL.com (h/t Steven Ruiz of USA Today). "I think we could have kept doing that some more. But also, you want to stay true to running the ball, too."
The Rams are unlikely to stay as stubbornly committed to the run, but that's going to leave the door open for Goff to make some big mistakes, potentially costing L.A. the game.
Chargers' Pass Rush Hits Home
The Patriots are more of a running team than they were last season. They averaged 127.3 yards per game on the ground in the regular season, fifth-most in the NFL.
However, the offense still runs through quarterback Tom Brady, and if the Chargers' pass rush can rattle him, Los Angeles will have the opportunity to win at Gillette Stadium.
This will be a big challenge. The Patriots' line allowed just 21 sacks in the regular season. However, the Chargers have a truly elite pass-rushing duo in Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa—one that can make life difficult for Brady.
Yes, New England can still lean on the run if it has to, but constant pressure will make the Patriots offense more one-dimensional. It will also make things extremely difficult on New England if the Chargers are able to grind out the game with Melvin Gordon and the run.
If the Chargers are able to sustain long, methodical drives, it will put pressure on New England to score with each possession. That pressure, along with L.A.'s pass rush, could lead to some big-time mistakes on the part of Brady.
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