Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Odds, Analysis, Wild Card NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistJanuary 2, 2019

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 30:  Andrew Luck #12 congratulates Eric Ebron #85 of the Indianapolis Colts after catching a pass for a touchdown during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee.  The Colts defeated the Titans 33-17.   (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

The Indianapolis Colts (10-6) will try to continue their dominance of the Houston Texans (11-5) on Saturday when they visit NRG Stadium as small road underdogs at sportsbooks. The Colts are 26-8 straight up in the past 34 meetings with the Texans, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, covering the spread in three of the last four.


NFL point spread: The Texans opened as three-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.9-20.8 Texans (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Colts can cover the spread

Few teams in the league are hotter than Indianapolis right now, especially after a dominant performance against the Tennessee Titans Sunday night. The Colts made it into the playoffs by crushing the Titans 33-17 as 5.5-point road favorites, with quarterback Andrew Luck improving to 11-0 during his career against them.

Luck is 6-4 SU lifetime versus Houston, and he has also led his team to a 4-1 mark SU in its last five games when playing divisional opponents. Luck's experience combined with the coaching of Frank Reich makes Indianapolis a dangerous team this postseason.


Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans are 4-1 SU and against the spread in their last five games against AFC South foes, and they also beat the Colts 37-34 in overtime back in Week 4 despite a season-high 464 passing yards from Luck. Reich went for the win rather than settling for a tie in that game and ended up losing, while ultimately costing Indianapolis the division title.

Houston is hoping second-year quarterback Deshaun Watson will shine in his first playoff appearance, as he finished the season strong with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the last six games to help his team win the division.


Smart betting pick

This is a great divisional matchup to kick off the postseason, and one where you can easily make an argument for each team winning and covering the spread. That said, the total is simply way too high here, with both defenses capable of limiting the opposition.

The under has cashed in for five of the previous seven games for the Colts, averaging a little less than 40 points, and in four of the past five meetings with the Texans. Look for a much lower scoring affair than expected with the total going under once again at betting sites.


NFL betting trends

The Colts are 3-1 ATS in their last four games vs the Texans.

The total has gone under in four of the Colts' last five games vs the Texans.

The total has gone under in five of the Colts' last seven games.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.


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