NFL Week 13 Betting Guide: Odds, Props and Picks
Welcome to December, when betting on NFL action won't likely be any easier than it was in September, October and November.
"As much as bettors want to think that we're getting smarter the more we see these teams play, obviously, the oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are, and they're adjusting and making it tough as well," VSiN's Dave Tuley, a veteran sports betting analyst, told Bleacher Report this week.
Tuley did concede there are times late in the year when you can spot overreactions to hot or cold teams—forcing oddsmakers to post exaggerated lines—and that in the past, he's had a lot of success taking underdogs during the homestretch. But the books are so advanced that nothing comes easy in NFL betting.
Still, we won't stop trying, and with that in mind, here's our latest look at Week 13, with a guide for upcoming games, notes on spreads, over/unders and money lines, top picks and the lock of the week.
Money-Line Picks and Picks Against the Spread
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New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 51.5 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys +7.5 and Saints -305
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-14, 43.5 O/U): Cardinals +14 and Packers -800
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-5.5, 47.5 O/U): Browns +5.5 and Texans -240
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, 48.5 O/U): Falcons -1.5 and -120
Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 54.5 O/U) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Panthers -3.5 and -180
Chicago Bears (-3.5, 44.5 O/U) at New York Giants: Bears -3.5 and -182
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 40 O/U): Bills +3.5 and Dolphins -190
Denver Broncos (-5, 45 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals +5 and Broncos -225
Los Angeles Rams (-10, 55 O/U) at Detroit Lions: Rams -10 and -452
Indianapolis Colts (-4, 47 O/U) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Colts -4 and -205
Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5, 55.5 O/U) at Oakland Raiders: Raiders +14.5 and Chiefs -1100
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-8.5, 40.5 O/U): Titans -8 and -370
Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-5, 49.5 O/U): Patriots -5.5 and -225
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 46 O/U): Seahawks -10 and -440
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 52 O/U): Chargers +3.5 and Steelers -175
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45 O/U): Eagles -6.5 and -255
Stay-Away Games
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Cardinals at Packers (-14)
It's possible to be tempted by either side here because the Cardinals have suffered several blowouts but have also covered big road spreads in both Minnesota and Kansas City, while the Packers could either start a run or continue their downward spiral.
Would anybody be surprised if the Cardinals fell 27-17 and secured the cover? Would anyone be shocked if they were demolished 35-10 by a desperate Green Bay team that is undefeated at home in 2018?
Under regular circumstances, you'd at least know what to expect from Aaron Rodgers, but the future Hall of Fame Packers quarterback just hasn't been himself this season. And there's no telling what Cardinals rookie signal-caller Josh Rosen is going to bring to the table on a weekly basis.
The lack of stability on both sides makes this a tough game to confidently get behind, especially with such a large spread in a matchup between two losing teams.
Ravens at Falcons (-1.5)
You'd think picking against the crestfallen Falcons would be easy at this point, especially since they're laying points on a three-game losing streak. But they're at home coming off extra rest after Week 12's Thursday night game, and the Ravens have been Jekyll (double-digit wins over Pittsburgh and Tennessee) and Hyde (ugly losses to Cincinnati, Cleveland and Carolina) on the road this season.
To boot, they'll again be relying on a raw rookie quarterback, with Lamar Jackson starting in place of the injured Joe Flacco. The Ravens have won both of Jackson's starts. But he has just a 63.4 passer rating in those games, and he could be exposed as teams get more NFL tape to examine.
Then again, the Falcons lack bite on defense and have covered just three spreads this year.
Atlanta has the talent to explode at any given moment, while the Ravens have the ingredients to implode. We just don't know when either development is coming. Better to pass on this one.
Broncos (-5) at Bengals
The Bengals haven't won since Week 8 and will be without starting quarterback Andy Dalton (thumb injury), while the Broncos are suddenly playoff contenders following impressive consecutive victories over the Chargers and Steelers.
That's why this feels like a trap.
The Broncos haven't won three consecutive games since the start of the 2016 season, well before Vance Joseph took over as head coach, and yet they're laying a handful of points in Cincinnati, where the Bengals have already defeated the Ravens, Dolphins and Bucs this season.
The Broncos lost on the road to the New York Jets by three scores in October, and they often find ways to lose under Joseph. That doesn't bode well, even with the Bengals in mired in a slump and down their starting quarterback.
But nobody will fault you for distrusting the Bengals even with those five points, especially because we don't know what Jeff Driskel will bring to the table in his first NFL start. The speedy third-year backup (4.56 40-yard dash) has performed well this season in spot duty, but you might want to give him a full start before betting confidently on or against his team.
Prop Bets You Can Take to the Bank
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Redskins at Eagles: Total touchdowns under 4.5 (+138)
Both of these teams are better on defense than they are on offense, and both should be tense for a crucial prime-time divisional game to kick off December. Per Team Rankings, the Eagles' red-zone defense ranks fourth in football, while Washington's is seventh.
Look for both units make some stops, and look for both offenses to settle for field goals frequently in a relatively tight battle.
Cardinals at Packers: Total second-half points under 21.5 (-125)
The Cards are averaging a league-low 6.4 points per second half this season, while Green Bay (12.0) ranks in the middle of the pack in that category. Meanwhile, Arizona and the Packers both rank in the top 15 in fewest points allowed in second halves.
This should be relatively one-sided, which might mean Green Bay takes its foot off the gas pedal down the stretch. Don't be surprised if only 10-14 points are scored after halftime.
49ers at Seahawks: Total turnovers under 2 (+480)
OK, this isn't a lock and is probably a bit of a long shot because only 25 percent of NFL games have contained fewer than two turnovers this season. But the 49ers are on pace to set an NFL-record low for takeaways in a season, with just five thus far.
They've given away the ball four times in their last two games, but the Seahawks had just one takeaway in November and haven't turned it over more than once since Week 2.
San Francisco might cough it up once or twice, but there's a good chance Seattle doesn't turn it over at all, which makes those odds pretty tempting at nearly 5-1.
Spreads to Bet
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Chiefs at Raiders (+14.5)
The Chiefs are laying more points in Oakland than any other road favorite in the last five years. And while it's possible Kansas City takes advantage of extra rest and pounds its struggling division rival on the road, this line feels like an overreaction to recent performances from both teams.
Dating back to Week 5, Oakland hasn't been competitive outside of a close Week 11 victory over the equally terrible Cardinals, while Kansas City's only losses this season have come by three points each on the road against the juggernaut Patriots and Rams. And they scored a combined 91 points in those outings. They've basically been demolishing everyone else.
But the Raiders haven't lost by 15 or more points in Oakland since Week 1's 20-point defeat to the Rams. And even then, they held a lead at halftime. Divisional games are also always tricky, and the Raiders actually beat the Chiefs when the two met at Oakland Coliseum in October 2017.
Look for Oakland and talented quarterback Derek Carr to hang around at home with a Chiefs team that clearly remains vulnerable on defense and won't have running back Kareem Hunt, who was released Friday after video surfaced of him shoving and kicking a woman.
Chargers (+3.5) at Steelers
The hook could come in handy for the Chargers, but it might not even get to that. This should at least be a field-goal game one way or another, and a Bolts victory in Pittsburgh is absolutely within the realm of possibility.
Los Angeles is coming off a near-perfect performance in a home victory over Cardinals, while the Steelers are coming off back-to-back mistake-filled outings against the Jaguars and Broncos (they turned the ball over seven times in those two affairs).
Pittsburgh is a much better team at home, but under coach Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are 5-2 in games in or beyond the Eastern time zone—a run that includes a victory in London and two close losses last year to eventual AFC Championship foes New England and Jacksonville.
Star L.A. running back Melvin Gordon is dealing with a knee injury, but his backup, pass-catching maestro Austin Ekeler, is averaging 0.6 yards per carry more than Gordon. The undrafted Western State Colorado University product ranks fourth among qualified backs with 5.8 yards per attempt.
Ekeler can exploit a defense that has struggled to slow down opposing running games of late, and the Chargers should also benefit from a clear-cut edge at the quarterback position (Philip Rivers has better numbers across the board than Ben Roethlisberger) in a potential prime-time upset.
Bills (+3.5) at Dolphins
The last of three 'dogs is Buffalo, who should be able to keep the division rival Dolphins within a field goal Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. After all, Miami hasn't defeated the Bills by more than three points in any of their last six meetings, and they haven't been playing good football since the first few weeks of the season.
In Miami's only regulation win since September, the injured-riddled Dolphins scored a measly 13 points in Week 9 against the weakling Jets.
They might not have the firepower to cover a four-point spread at home against a team that is just as talented on paper. The Bills are by no means trustworthy—they have two blowout road victories but three blowout road losses. But they have back astoundingly gifted rookie quarterback Josh Allen, and they're playing their best football of the season. They've outscored the Jets and Jaguars 65-31 in back-to-back wins, and their top-ranked pass defense (194 yards allowed per game) should keep this close.
Line Movement
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Bills at Dolphins: Dolphins -7 to -3.5
If you were sharp enough to grab the Bills when they were getting a full touchdown, congratulations. Rarely do you see a line shift this dramatically without a major development, which indicates the books were just far too high on the Dolphins (or low on the Bills).
Buffalo beat the Dolphins twice last December, and they're healthier and hotter than their AFC East rival right now. It appears the betting public has pushed this down. I'd still ride Buffalo so long as this doesn't drop below a field goal.
Broncos at Bengals: Bengals -1.5 to Broncos -5
Clearly, all of the money is coming in on the Broncos, who were an underdog to kick off the week. The catalyst, of course, was the news that the Bengals would be without quarterback Andy Dalton, but is Dalton really worth almost an entire touchdown? He's the league's 11th-lowest-rated passer and is in the bottom 10 in terms of completion percentage (61.9) and yards per attempt (7.03).
Dalton's replacement, Jeff Driskel, is unaccomplished at the NFL level, but he's put up nice numbers (92.2 passer rating) in spot duty, and his mobility could complicate matters for a Broncos defense that is going in somewhat blind.
The mystery factor makes Cincinnati an intriguing play, especially with top receiver A.J. Green likely to return from a toe injury. But you might want to wait and see if this keeps climbing and consider buying a point or two for the full touchdown.
Colts at Jaguars: Colts -2.5 to -4
Those who hadn't yet put money down on the Colts lost the benefit of the hook when Jacksonville's world blew up Monday. That's when the NFL suspended running back Leonard Fournette, the Jaguars benched quarterback Blake Bortles and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was fired. Top cornerback Jalen Ramsey's status has since become murky.
Put it all together, and it's amazing the streaking Colts didn't gain more than 1.5 points in a matchup with a team that might be beyond desperation. The Jaguars were already undisciplined, and now it's fair to wonder if they're out of gas.
Divisional games are scary, and the Colts beat the Jags by just three points at home a few weeks ago. But these teams have since moved in opposite directions, and the line hasn't climbed enough to convince me to take the reeling underdog.
Cardinals at Packers: 48 O/U to 43.5 O/U
You can even find 43 in some spots. The decrease is somewhat organic, although an injury to Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari could have factored in. Pro Football Focus recently named Bakhtiari the best pass-blocking offensive lineman in football, and Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers was already having trouble before his blindside protector went down.
Arizona has the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL (14.1 points per game), and this could be one-sided. The Packers could eventually take their foot off the gas pedal.
Add it all together, and this total makes more sense below 44.
Easy Over/Unders
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Chargers at Steelers: Over 52 points
If the Chargers offense can avoid missing a beat with Austin Ekeler taking most of Melvin Gordon's carries, there's no reason to believe this won't be a relative shootout.
The Bolts are coming off a 45-point performance against Arizona in which quarterback Philip Rivers was nearly flawless (28-of-29 for 259 yards and three touchdowns). Even if they score half that amount in Pittsburgh, we should hit the over. After all, the Steelers are likely hungry to bounce back after a tough two-game road trip, and they're averaging 35.4 points per game at home this season.
Look for a 30-27 type of score Sunday night.
Browns at Texans: Under 47.5 points
Sometimes, you'll come across a total that seems inexplicable. This is one of those times.
After all, the Texans have allowed just 16.3 points per game since the start of October, while the Browns have strung together strong back-to-back defensive performances (36 total points surrendered to Atlanta and Cincinnati).
It's easy to become caught up in the buzz surrounding young quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson, but both of these teams are more talented and experienced on defense.
Look for the surging Myles Garrett to wreak havoc on Houston's pitiful offensive line, and expect Mayfield and Co. to fall back to earth a little against the best D they've faced all season.
Panthers at Buccaneers: Under 54.5 points
The Buccaneers defense has performed so poorly that you won't find many totals below the 50-mark for games involving Tampa Bay, but this 54.5-pointer is pushing it.
The Bucs have actually given up just 16 points per game in their last three home outings, while the once-blazing Panthers offense has cooled off, with just 22.3 points per game since Week 10. Carolina also hasn't been as crisp on the road, where it has yet to score 25 points in five games this season.
Sure, Jameis Winston is coming off a much-needed steady performance which involved zero turnovers, but history indicates he's likely to make some mistakes Sunday. And even if he doesn't, that could mean fewer short fields for the Panthers.
These teams combined for 70 points when they met in Charlotte, North Carolina, last month, but watch for a correction here.
Value Bets
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Panthers (-180) at Buccaneers
Worried about that hook with a 3.5-point spread and fearing a backdoor cover from the Bucs in a home divisional game? Throw down the equivalent of $18 for the equivalent of a $10 profit on the money line, and enjoy a less stressful experience watching Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and their respective squads.
You could have had the Panthers for a little less than -180 earlier in the week, but that's still a quality price for a 3.5-point favorite that I think will win by a double-digit margin in Tampa.
Sure, the Panthers have dropped three in a row. But their last win came by a 14-point margin over this Bucs team, and they're due to bounce back. Newton has posted six consecutive triple-digit passer ratings, running back Christian McCaffrey has 642 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns in his last four games, and it's hard to trust Tampa Bay, which is coming off its first turnover-free performance since Week 1.
It's surprising the Panthers aren't bigger favorites and just as odd that they're not a more expensive money-line bet.
Colts (-205) at Jaguars
This is a similar situation in that the Colts are laying a little more than a field goal on the road against an inferior division rival. The price isn't quite as favorable, but it'd be a shock if the Jaguars broke from their current state of disarray and upset a rolling Indy team.
So again, if you aren't comfortable giving up more than a field goal in favor of a road team in a matchup between divisional opponents, grabbing Indy at around -200 is an option.
Not only are the Jaguars going with backup quarterback Cody Kessler and backup running back T.J. Yeldon under an interim offensive coordinator in Scott Milanovich, but their vaunted defense could be in trouble based on Ramsey's injury. It seems the only way for this team to win right now is by making plays with its speed on defense, but the well-protected Andrew Luck likely won't be fazed here.
So don't be afraid to grab the Colts minus four points or hedge and at least take that -205 money line.
A happy-medium option with both of these games would be to buy an extra point or a point-and-a-half with either favorite, which would require less of a risk than jumping on the money line but would leave you vulnerable in the case of one- or two-point victories from the home squads.
Sucker Bet: Texans -240 over Browns
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If you want to jump on the Texans this week, feel free to roll the dice that they'll cover a 5.5-point spread at home at a fair price. Don't attempt to hedge on the money line at -240 because that's too high an expense considering the way the Browns are playing (and most books are actually much higher).
Yeah, the Texans have won eight straight games, but that streak has contained a lot of close calls against struggling opponents. On short rest, they could run out of luck.
As mentioned above, this is likely to be a defensive battle despite the generous total, and the key could be the matchup between Browns defensive end Myles Garrett and one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Ben Cooper of Pro Football Focus noted that Garrett had one of the most pressure-packed performances of the season last week against the Bengals, which could put him in a position to take over this game.
Throw in that Baker Mayfield is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league, and the Browns are too dangerous to justify dropping the equivalent of $24 to make a $10 profit on a Texans team that might be ready to pop.
Cleveland is every bit as talented as Houston, and that's been reflected in back-to-back double-digit victories just weeks after Hue Jackson's firing. With better coaching and a few breaks, this team could easily be 8-3 right now. Don't be fooled into buying Houston in this spot.
Lock of the Week: Seahawks -10
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It turns out Nick Mullens might not be the savior for the 49ers.
The undrafted 23-year-old quarterback out of Southern Mississippi rocked the football world with a dazzling career debut against the Oakland Raiders last month, but since then, he's thrown four interceptions to two touchdown passes in consecutive losses to the Giants and Bucs.
With Seattle signal-caller Russell Wilson and the Seahawks smelling blood in front of a home crowd Sunday, Mullens and his teammates are in trouble.
The San Francisco roster is far too depleted to compete with legit opponents right now. Beating the Raiders and hanging with the Giants and Cardinals is one thing, but before that, the Niners lost by 29 points to the Rams at home.
Now they have to deal with the loudest home crowd in football—right when the Seahawks and their roaring fanbase are realizing this team could be a contender.
The Hawks have somewhat quietly won six of their last nine games, and Wilson has thrown 20 touchdown passes to two interceptions during that span. They're coming off back-to-back statement victories over hungry NFC foes Green Bay and Carolina. The latter came in Charlotte, where the Panthers had won 10 consecutive games.
Don't expect the 49ers to put up a fight. After all, this is a defense unbelievably has just five takeaways. The team also released starting linebacker Reuben Foster on Sunday after he was arrested on a charge of domestic battery.
San Francisco is out of gas, while the Seahawks are only gaining speed. Sunday won't even feel like a speed bump for the Seahawks.
All money lines, spreads and over/under totals are via OddsShark and accurate as of Friday evening. All other bet types are through OddsChecker and accurate as of Friday evening.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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