Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 20, 2018

NEW ORLEANS, LA - NOVEMBER 18:  Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints catches the ball for a touchdown as Malcolm Jenkins #27 of the Philadelphia Eagles defends during a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on November 18, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

The New Orleans Saints (9-1) will try to extend their winning streak to 10 games when they host the struggling Atlanta Falcons (4-6) as large home favorites at sportsbooks for the Week 12 Thursday night matchup to cap off a Thanksgiving tripleheader. The Saints are coming off a 48-7 rout of the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles last week, covering the spread in their eighth straight game.

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 60.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 45.9-11.1 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons hung tough in the first meeting back in Week 3 before falling 43-37 in overtime as 1.5-point home favorites, starting a three-game losing streak. They have struggled to turn things around since then and can use that loss as motivation. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees scored two rushing touchdowns late to pull off the win for his team, including one in OT for the game-winner.

Atlanta has gone an impressive 5-1 straight up in its past six prime-time appearances and 5-0 against the spread in its last five as a double-digit underdog.


Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints just keep rolling along, making bettors wonder if they will ever suffer a letdown before the end of the regular season. They are still battling the Los Angeles Rams for the top seed in the NFC and hold the tiebreaker by virtue of their head-to-head victory in Week 9.

Still, this is a divisional home game on Thanksgiving night, and New Orleans is 9-3 SU in the previous 12 home meetings, covering five of seven. The Saints have also gone 5-1 ATS as favorites during their nine-game winning streak.


Smart betting pick

The number is too high for a divisional game between these two teams even though New Orleans has made it look easy in beating its last four opponents by 10 points or more. The Saints have been double-digit favorites five times vs. the Falcons dating back to 1992, going 4-1 SU but just 1-4 ATS.

Four of those games were at the Superdome, where New Orleans has failed to cover as a double-digit favorite three consecutive times, including the team's season-opening loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints will not lose this game, but they will come up short of covering.


NFL betting trends

The Saints are 9-0 SU in their last nine games.

The total has gone over in 19 of the Saints' last 27 games at home.

The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.