NFL Picks Week 11: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and OddsNovember 13, 2018
We had quite a few one-sided games in Week 10, including some surprising ones involving the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans.
We aren't likely to see so many blowouts in Week 11. We have a lot of games that look to be quite close on paper—including a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, a division showdown between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts, and another division battle between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.
With a number of even matchups on the Week 11 slate, it'll be a little bit of a challenge to sort out the best wagers. We're here to help, though, with the latest odds and over/unders from OddsShark, our early score predictions and our top plays.
Week 11 Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions
Green Bay (+2.5, 49) at Seattle: Packers 26, Seahawks 24
Cincinnati (+3.5, no O/U) at Baltimore: Ravens 28, Bengals 21
Carolina (-4, 51) at Detroit: Panthers 24, Lions 20
Tennessee (+2, 48) at Indianapolis: Colts 28, Titans 27
Dallas (+3, 48) at Atlanta: Cowboys 28, Falcons 23
Tampa Bay (even, 52) at Giants: Giants 26, Buccaneers 25
Houston (-3, 42.5) at Washington: Texans 23, Redskins 21
Pittsburgh (-5.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville: Steelers 30, Jaguars 25
Denver (+7, 46.5) at Chargers: Chargers 28, Broncos 21
Oakland (+4, 40.5) at Arizona: Cardinals 26, Raiders 23
Philadelphia (+8.5, 54.5) at New Orleans: Saints 38, Eagles 30
Minnesota (+3, 45.5) at Chicago: Bears 30, Vikings 24
Kansas City (+2.5, 63.5) vs. L.A. (in Mexico): Chiefs 38, Rams 33
Cowboys (+3) over Falcons
The Dallas Cowboys are getting three points against the Atlanta Falcons, likely because they are on the road. While Dallas has certainly had its fair share of issues this season, it matches up extremely well with the Falcons.
Dallas has an emerging defense that is allowing just 19 points per game, third-fewest in the NFL. The Cowboys have a strong pass rush and enough talent in the secondary to limit Atlanta's high-flying offense. This means the Falcons are going to have to get some wins on the defensive side of the ball, which they have struggled to do.
Atlanta is ranked 29th in points allowed (28.2 per game) and 30th in yards allowed (414.3 per game).
While the Cowboys don't have an elite passing attack, the addition of Amari Cooper has helped Dak Prescott open up the passing offense a bit. Prescott doesn't rattle easily, and even if he does struggle in stretches, he'll come back to take advantage of Atlanta's defense.
"He never gets down on himself, never gets down on the team," Cooper said of his quarterback, per Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News. "He's always believing that we can go out there and overcome any circumstance."
After seeing how easy of a time Baker Mayfield (216 yards passing, three touchdowns) had against the Falcons last week, there may be no reason for Prescott to get down anyway.
The Cleveland Browns' rushing attack also made things look easy against the Falcons in Week 10. Cleveland rushed for more than 200 yards. Dallas boasts Ezekiel Elliott and the fifth-best run game in the NFL (133.4 yards per game). It should be able to gash Atlanta on the ground.
Expect the Cowboys to be within a field goal at the final whistle, and we believe they'll actually win outright.
Raiders and Cardinals over 40.5 Total Points
Unless you're a fan of the Oakland Raiders or the Arizona Cardinals, you'll probably need a reason to tune into this matchup. In a game between two bad teams that could go either way, we're looking at the over as a reason here.
This is an extremely low over/under, likely because the Raiders and Cardinals have been so bad. There are a couple of reasons to believe there will a fair amount of scoring in this one, though.
For starters, the Raiders defense is atrocious. It's allowing an average of 30.2 points per game, third-most in the NFL. Josh Rosen, David Johnson and Co. should have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone in Week 11.
While the Arizona defense hasn't been terrible, it is still allowing 25 points per game. It's also been bad against the run (140.3 rushing yards allowed per game). Oakland can attack the Cardinals with running backs Doug Martin and Jalen Richard in order to sustain drives and take pressure off quarterback Derek Carr.
This isn't going to be an offensive barnburner (we'll get to that shortly) but the Raiders and the Cardinals will hit the over.
Chiefs and Rams over 30.5 1st-Half Points
The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams have two of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Kansas City ranks second in scoring with an average of 35.3 points. The Rams rank third, scoring a mere two points per game fewer.
We like the over of 63.5 in this game, and we like the idea of doubling up with a first-half prop. You can find 4-5 odds on the over of 30.5 first-half points at OddsChecker. This is a high over/under, but there is a reason why we think the Chiefs and Rams will hit it.
Coaches Andy Reid and Sean McVay know that the opposition can put up points in a hurry. Both will likely try to control the tempo with the run early. However, both Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt are capable of chewing up yards in bunches, and leaning on the run isn't likely to slow this game down much at all.
Just look at last week's game between the Rams and Seahawks. Seattle racked up 273 yards rushing and the game still had 67 points, 31 in the first half.
Seeing a halftime score of 21-20 wouldn't be a surprise.
Speaking of the Seahawks, we like the over on 24.5 first-half points in their game against the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. You can find nearly even odds (97-100) on that one at OddsChecker.