NFL Picks Week 10: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

Zach Buckley@@ZachBuckleyNBANational NBA Featured ColumnistNovember 8, 2018

FILE - In this Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018, file photo, Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton runs with the football against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half of an NFL football game in Charlotte, N.C. The Panthers face the Steelers on Thursday in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond, File)
Nell Redmond/Associated Press

In what feels like a did-I-blink-and-miss-something-here development, the NFL is already entering Week 10 of the 2018 season.

While gambling essentially equates to a game of chance, there's a wealth of data available to help make your wagers become more like educated guesses.

Expert input is particularly useful, so we've compiled the picks of CBS Sports' Will Brinson, Sporting News' Vinnie Iyer and NOLA.com's Jim Derry to help steer you in the right direction.

Odds are courtesy of OddsShark and current as of Thursday, Nov. 8 at 12:30 a.m. ET. All expert picks are made against the spread.

                    

Matchups

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Brinson: Steelers

Iyer: Steelers

Derry: Steelers

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

Brinson: Lions

Iyer: Lions

Derry: Bears

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5)

Brinson: Cardinals

Iyer: Chiefs

Derry: Cardinals

New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans

Brinson: Titans

Iyer: Patriots

Derry: Titans

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Brinson: Bengals

Iyer: Saints

Derry: Bengals

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns

Brinson: Browns

Iyer: Browns

Derry: Falcons

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Brinson: Jaguars

Iyer: Colts

Derry: Jaguars

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Brinson: Redskins

Iyer: Buccaneers

Derry: Redskins

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-6.5)

Brinson: Bills

Iyer: Bills

Derry: Jets

Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Oakland Raiders

Brinson: Chargers

Iyer: Chargers

Derry: Raiders

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10)

Brinson: Dolphins

Iyer: Packers

Derry: Dolphins

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-10)

Brinson: Seahawks

Iyer: Rams

Derry: Rams

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

Brinson: Eagles

Iyer: Cowboys

Derry: Cowboys

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Brinson: 49ers

Iyer: 49ers

Derry: Giants

                     

BALTIMORE, MD - NOVEMBER 04: Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks to pass against the Baltimore Ravens during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on November 4, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Fourteen games, three experts and only one unanimous selection—the Steelers, who host Week 10's opener Thursday night.

Both teams are coming in hot, with Pittsburgh having won four straight and Carolina riding a three-game winning streak. Each is also getting borderline elite play from its quarterback, as Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton have thrown a combined 31 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions.

This feels like a nod both to Roethlisberger historically playing better at home than on the road and a recognition of James Conner's rise as an elite running back. Conner, who has rushed for 100-plus yards in four straight, sits second in the NFL with 706 rushing yards and is tied for the No. 2 spot with nine rushing scores.

Carolina, of course, counters with perhaps the best linebacker group in the business with Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson. Teams don't try to run a ton against the Panthers (174 attempts, third-fewest), but they've had modest success when doing so (4.3 yards per carry, 16th).

The Steelers are my choice as well, both straight up and against the spread. But if you'd asked me to guess which pick would be the consensus opinion, this would not have been it.

CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 4:  Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball during the game against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on November 4, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

Also, what does it say about the Cardinals—and the Chiefs—that Arizona isn't a unanimous pick despite getting an absurd 16.5 points thrown its way?

Enough to make me lean the Chiefs direction.

The NFL is struggling to find spreads big enough for a Kansas City attack steered by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid and overloaded with playmakers at the skill positions. The Chiefs are an NFL-best 8-1 against the spread, and in the past three weeks they've claimed victories of 35 points (over the Bengals) and 16 points (against the Browns).

Kansas City paces everyone with 36.3 points per game. Arizona sits a distant 31st at 13.8 points per game. Mahomes looks like the midseason favorite for MVP. His counterpart, Josh Rosen, looks...well, like a rookie (55.6 completion percentage, five touchdowns against six interceptions).

This could easily be one of those spreads decided by a meaningless score in the final minute, well after the starters have occupied sideline seats. But the talent discrepancy looks more than 16.5 points wide, and you'd be wise to trust the eye test.

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