In what feels like a did-I-blink-and-miss-something-here development, the NFL is already entering Week 10 of the 2018 season.
While gambling essentially equates to a game of chance, there's a wealth of data available to help make your wagers become more like educated guesses.
Odds are courtesy of OddsShark and current as of Thursday, Nov. 8 at 12:30 a.m. ET. All expert picks are made against the spread.
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5)
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-6.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Oakland Raiders
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-10)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Fourteen games, three experts and only one unanimous selection—the Steelers, who host Week 10's opener Thursday night.
Both teams are coming in hot, with Pittsburgh having won four straight and Carolina riding a three-game winning streak. Each is also getting borderline elite play from its quarterback, as Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton have thrown a combined 31 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions.
This feels like a nod both to Roethlisberger historically playing better at home than on the road and a recognition of James Conner's rise as an elite running back. Conner, who has rushed for 100-plus yards in four straight, sits second in the NFL with 706 rushing yards and is tied for the No. 2 spot with nine rushing scores.
Carolina, of course, counters with perhaps the best linebacker group in the business with Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson. Teams don't try to run a ton against the Panthers (174 attempts, third-fewest), but they've had modest success when doing so (4.3 yards per carry, 16th).
The Steelers are my choice as well, both straight up and against the spread. But if you'd asked me to guess which pick would be the consensus opinion, this would not have been it.
Also, what does it say about the Cardinals—and the Chiefs—that Arizona isn't a unanimous pick despite getting an absurd 16.5 points thrown its way?
Enough to make me lean the Chiefs direction.
The NFL is struggling to find spreads big enough for a Kansas City attack steered by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid and overloaded with playmakers at the skill positions. The Chiefs are an NFL-best 8-1 against the spread, and in the past three weeks they've claimed victories of 35 points (over the Bengals) and 16 points (against the Browns).
Kansas City paces everyone with 36.3 points per game. Arizona sits a distant 31st at 13.8 points per game. Mahomes looks like the midseason favorite for MVP. His counterpart, Josh Rosen, looks...well, like a rookie (55.6 completion percentage, five touchdowns against six interceptions).
This could easily be one of those spreads decided by a meaningless score in the final minute, well after the starters have occupied sideline seats. But the talent discrepancy looks more than 16.5 points wide, and you'd be wise to trust the eye test.