Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 6, 2018

FOXBOROUGH, MA - NOVEMBER 04:  A detail of the jersey of Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers before the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on November 4, 2018 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers (3-4-1) will be happy to be back home on Sunday at Lambeau Field where they will host the Miami Dolphins (5-4) as large favorites at sportsbooks. The Packers have visited the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots the previous two weeks and lost both games to fall to 0-4 on the road, although they are unbeaten at home this year at 3-0-1, with the tie coming versus the Minnesota Vikings.


NFL point spread: The Packers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 51.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.1-13.1 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins look to be underrated in this spot with a better record than their opponent and getting nearly double digits from them as well. Miami is coming off an ugly 13-6 win over the New York Jets last week to sweep the season series, picking off rookie quarterback Sam Darnold four times, including one that was returned for the game's only touchdown.

The Dolphins have won 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series too, covering four of the last five at Lambeau, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.


Why the Packers can cover the spread

It is really no surprise to see that Green Bay has played much better at home this season, and this is essentially a must-win situation for the team following back-to-back losses. The Packers obviously still want to make the playoffs and have a solid shot at the postseason if they just manage can go on a nice run over the next few weeks.

After this game, they are back on the road to visit the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings, neither of which are easy matchups. So Green Bay will be looking for an easy win here.


Smart betting pick

The Packers could have easily beaten the Rams or Patriots on the road the past two weeks, with key fumbles hurting their chances of earning a victory both times. Back at Lambeau, they will finally have a home-field advantage again, and that will be the difference.

Miami is just 1-8 straight up and against the spread in its last nine games as a road underdog, and Green Bay will extend each of those trends with a win and cover.


NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of the Dolphins' last 10 games vs the Packers.

The Packers are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.

The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games before a bye.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.