The Minnesota Vikings (3-2-1) and New York Jets (3-3) will both be going for their third straight wins on Sunday when they meet in an intriguing matchup at MetLife Stadium.
The Vikings are listed as small road favorites at sportsbooks and were disappointing early on, but they have started to turn things around following a 1-2-1 start, while the Jets are playing much better than expected so far with a rookie quarterback.
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.0-17.3 Jets (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Vikings can cover the spread
Minnesota has the more seasoned quarterback in this game, and that alone could be the difference. Kirk Cousins has provided leadership for the team and performed well under center, ranking fifth in the NFL with 1,921 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions.
Cousins has also helped turn Adam Thielen into the league's top receiver through the first six weeks with 712 yards on 58 catches and four touchdowns. If the Vikings can get off to an early lead, they should have no problem covering here.
Why the Jets can cover the spread
New York's main asset in aiding Sam Darnold in his first season has been creating turnovers and giving him good field position with which to work. The Jets are tied for second in the NFL in interceptions with 10 and in forced fumbles with nine, and they will be trying to pad those numbers against Cousins, who has fumbled six times this year.
Darnold also had one of his most efficient games last week in a 42-34 win over the Indianapolis Colts, completing 24 of 30 passes for 280 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. If he can play like that again, New York will have a shot at another upset.
Smart betting pick
Heading into the season, Minnesota was supposed to be a playoff team, and that can still happen as long as the team does not lose games like this.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, they have gone 3-15 straight up and 6-12 against the spread in their last 18 games vs. AFC East opponents, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The Jets are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs, so they are the play.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone OVER in six of the Jets' last eight games at home.
The Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.
The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.