NFL Week 5 Betting Guide: Odds, Props and Picks

Six NFL Week 5 games have over/under totals of 50 or more points (that includes Thursday's matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots, which had a 50-point total), according to OddsShark. 

Teams are averaging 24.2 points per game, which beats the previous high mark by six-tenths of a point. The reasons for the explosion include innovative offenses, an infusion of young quarterback talent and new offense-friendly rules.

From a gambling side, we're at the point where individual teams are meeting (or exceeding) over/under totals by themselves.

Last Sunday, the Chicago Bears scored 48 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game with a 46-point over/under. Later that afternoon, the Oakland Raiders tied their 45-point total, and their opponent (the Cleveland Browns) nearly did the same with 42.

We have to adjust to a new NFL (including this writer, who had the under on both games). What will we see as the 2018 season moves along? Will there be a 60-point over/under? Will a team drop 60 points by itself?

We'll take a look at some over/unders to bet in this week's betting guide, alongside the usual picks against the spread, line-movement notes, the lock of the week and more. 

Moneyline Picks and Picks Against the Spread

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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: Patriots (-10.5 and -600)

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers (-3 and -175)

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: Browns (+3 and +148)

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: Lions (+1.5 and +105)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs (-3 and -155)

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals (-6 and -250)

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: Panthers (-6.5 and -270)

Denver Broncos at New York Jets: Broncos (+1 and -117)

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills: Bills (+5.5 and +214)

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: Raiders (+5.5 and +211)

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Cardinals (+3.5 and +165)

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: Rams (-7.5 and -360)

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles (-3 and -165)

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: Texans (-3 and -173)

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints: Redskins (+6) and Saints (-230)

ML Season Record: 36-26-2

ATS Season Record: 30-30-4

Stay-Away Games

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Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Good luck figuring out this game.

The Cowboys are third in the NFL in sacks (14), while the Texans have allowed 17 (second-most in the league). The clear edge goes to Dallas in that line-of-scrimmage battle.

However, the Cowboys' passing game can't get anything going. Of note, three players have 100 or more receiving yards through four weeks (and none with more than 185). 

Now they'll have to deal with edge-rushers J.J. Watt (five sacks) and Jadeveon Clowney (two sacks, four tackles and a fumble recovery for a touchdown last Sunday). The Cowboys offensive line ranks third-to-last in adjusted sack rate allowed (10.7 percent), per Football Outsiders, and may have trouble with the Texans' fearsome duo.

Dallas has one of the best rushing attacks thanks to Ezekiel Elliott, who is the NFL's leading rusher with 426 yards. But Houston is second in run-defense efficiency.

The Texans are at home, but they should expect an infusion of local Cowboys fans at NRG Stadium, which may neuter their home-field advantage.

Flip a coin to decide the winner.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

If you Google "unstoppable force meets an immovable object Chiefs Jaguars," you'll see at least eight articles using the phrase to describe the battle between the Kansas City offense and immovable Jaguars defense.

The Chiefs are No. 1 in scoring, while the Jaguars are first in fewest points allowed per game. If you can find an edge when those sides take the field, then by all means, bet this game.

The problem is the matchup could go a number of different routes. The Chiefs' running game, which sprung to life Monday against the Broncos, could dominate and help Kansas City avoid potential turnovers when throwing at the Jags' stingy pass defense. Second-year sensation Patrick Mahomes (15 total touchdowns through four games) could also crush Jacksonville like he has the rest of the NFL.

Likewise, the Jags' pass-rushers may give Mahomes trouble all day en route to a low-scoring win. Or maybe the two sides battle to a draw.

Couple that with the fact that we don't know which Jags offense we will get (it crossed the 30-point barrier in two games but failed to hit 14 in two others), and you have a tossup.

Prop Bets You Can Take to the Bank

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Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown: Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Yes, Antonio Brown is off to a slow start, but this receiving-yard total is too low.

First, Brown averaged 101.9 yards per game from 2013-17, including 109.5 last year. If he hits that total Sunday, then he'll beat this prop by roughly 12 yards.

Second, the over/under total for the Steelers' matchup with the Falcons is at an eye-popping 58. Pittsburgh, which is a three-point favorite, has an implied team total of 30.5 points. If the game becomes a shootout as expected, then Brown will most likely play a huge part.

Third, the Falcons defense is reeling after losing safety Keanu Neal, linebacker Deion Jones, safety Ricardo Allen and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett to injuries. While edge-rusher Takkarist McKinley is becoming a dominant force (five sacks), the Falcons have allowed 80 points in two weeks.

Look for Brown to break out Sunday.

Denver Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders: Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Jets pass defense has allowed four 100-yard receiving games through four weeks, including two against the Jaguars on Sunday.

Now New York is facing a formidable receiving trio in Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and Courtland Sutton. Although the Broncos are on a short week and traveling cross-country to play a 1 p.m. ET game, the Jets pass defense has significantly struggled ever since Browns rookie Baker Mayfield came into their Week 3 game late in the second quarter.

Since then, New York has allowed 52 points and 589 passing yards.

Sanders started the season with 14 catches for 231 yards and one touchdown through two weeks, but his production has slowed down in the last two contests, with 38 yards against Baltimore and 45 against Kansas City. In fairness, the Ravens defense ranks third in efficiency, per Football Outsiders, and Denver had the ball for just 25 minutes in its matchup with the Chiefs.

Sanders should bounce back with a strong game, easily eclipsing 67.5 yards.

Spreads to Bet

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Washington Redskins (+6) at New Orleans Saints

The NFL's top two teams in fewest yards allowed per play are the Ravens and Jaguars. You may be surprised to know Washington sits right behind them at No. 3.

The 'Skins have allowed the second-fewest points per game as they have gotten off to a 2-1 start. Granted, they had a Week 1 matchup with the Cardinals, who are the only NFL team to have not scored 20 points in a game yet, but a strong 31-17 home win over the Packers spoke volumes.

Middle linebacker Mason Foster has been a monster (27 tackles), safety D.J. Swearinger is making plays (two interceptions, four passes defended) and cornerback Quinton Dunbar is tied with Swearinger for the team lead in passes defended.

While it's impossible to shut down their Week 5 opponent entirely, the 'Skins could slow them down a la the Browns in Week 2 (New Orleans scored 21 that afternoon). Getting six points in this matchup is too enticing to pass up.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Although the Cardinals fell 20-17 to the Seahawks in Week 4, one encouraging sign rose from that game. In particular, the team used running back David Johnson more frequently.

The NFL's leader in yards from scrimmage in 2016 only touched the ball 44 times through three weeks, but he had 22 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown in addition to three catches for 41 yards on Sunday. He's Arizona's best offensive player and should be treated as such with a heavy touch and target volume.

Quarterback Josh Rosen also had a respectable showing in his first start, completing 15 of 27 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown.

Arizona is playing a 49ers team that has dealt with an inordinate amount of injuries. Of note, 14 players are on the injury report, including left tackle Joe Staley, cornerback Richard Sherman and right tackle Mike McGlinchey, all of whom are questionable. Wideout Dante Pettis has been ruled out.

It's a close game to call straight-up, but with the Cardinals receiving three-and-a-half points, give the edge to Arizona against the spread.

Line Movement

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Denver Broncos at New York Jets: NYJ -2.5 to NYJ -1 or EVEN

Sportsbooks are divided on the Broncos at Jets line, which is either Jets minus a point or even.

Regardless, it's clear bettors are bearish on Gang Green as their offense has scored just 41 points in their last three games. They also just allowed 388 passing yards to Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles in a 31-12 loss and 201 yards to Mayfield in two-plus quarters.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a strong performance against the 4-0 Chiefs in which they led 23-13 in the fourth quarter but allowed two late touchdowns in a 27-23 loss. Denver has lived on the edge all season with three games of four-point deficits or fewer.

The Broncos have a day less of rest than the Jets and must travel cross-country for a 1 p.m. ET game, but they are the better team on paper. The guess is the line shift foreshadows a Denver win.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -4 to PIT -3 and 56 O/U to 58 O/U

Do you think sharp bettors are confident that the Falcons-Steelers game will be a shootout? The over/under total has jumped from 56 to 58, and the underdog Falcons even have an implied team total of 27.5 points!

Neither team has much hope stopping the other Sunday. The Falcons will be sans four defensive starters from Week 1. The Steelers defense hasn't been the same since leader and star linebacker Ryan Shazier suffered a serious spinal injury last season.

On the other side, the Falcons offense just dropped 104 points in the team's last three games, while the Steelers offense (which is hit-or-miss thus far) has excellent pass-catching talent in Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

It's hard to envision a scenario in which either defense takes over. It wouldn't be too surprising to see this line climb a little bit more prior to kickoff.

Easy Over/Unders

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 51 Points (Over)

After scoring just 10 points in the season opener, the Lions offense has sprung to life with 25.7 points per game in the past three weeks. Running back Kerryon Johnson has 5.7 yards per carry. Second-year pro Kenny Golladay sports a 71.9 percent catch rate, and Golden Tate is on pace for 112 receptions.

The offensive line has also kept quarterback Matthew Stafford upright, as the team has an adjusted sack rate of 4.0 percent, tied for the best mark in the league, per Football Outsiders.

As good as the offense has been of late, the other side of the ball is a work in progress. In particular, the Lions run defense allows 5.3 yards per carry, the third-worst mark in football.

That could be an issue against Packers running back Aaron Jones, who has 107 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries so far. Green Bay employs a three-man running back committee, but the team would be wise to run Jones often against the Lions defense.

Through the air, future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be missing Randall Cobb but may have wideouts Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison, who are trying to return from a calf injury and a concussion, respectively.

This has the potential to be the highest-scoring game of the week. Take the over.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 45.5 Points (Under)

The Browns struggled defensively in a 45-42 overtime loss to the Raiders on Sunday, but the guess here is that game was an exception, not the rule.

Cleveland still has excellent talent up front led by end Myles Garrett (4.5 sacks, 19 tackles) and tackle Larry Ogunjobi (three sacks, 21 tackles). They should help the Browns shut down a Ravens rushing offense that has not executed well this year (3.1 yards per carry, tied for last place).

On the other side, Baltimore has been lights-out for three of four games (the lone exception being a 34-23 loss to the Bengals).

In their three wins, the Ravens have allowed just 31 points. The Browns offense has strong potential with Mayfield running the show, but it may need some time to jell given that he's led the team for just six-plus quarters.

This has the feel of a classic, ugly AFC North battle where neither team gets much going on offense. The under wins here.

Value Bets

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Oakland Raiders (+211 ML) over Los Angeles Chargers

Per football analyst Warren Sharp, the Oakland Raiders offense ranks fourth in successful play percentage, which is defined as the "frequency that a play generates required yardage (based on down/distance)."

That ranking jumps to third when considering passing plays only, and that could be an issue for a Chargers pass defense that has struggled all year sans Pro Bowl edge-rusher Joey Bosa, who is out with a foot injury.

The Bolts have allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt (8.7), and you can connect the dots. If the Raiders' success rate continues, they could be in line for numerous explosive plays.

In fairness, it's hard to see the Bolts offense slowing down against a Raiders defense that is in the bottom 10 in pass- and run-defense efficiency, per Football Outsiders. But this could be a de facto home game for Oakland in StubHub Center, which has been filled with fans of the opposing team since the Chargers moved from San Diego in 2017.

In fact, Sam Fortier of The Athletic reported that the Bolts are practicing with piped-in crowd noise.

This has the makings of a back-and-forth shootout, but the slight edge goes to Oakland thanks to its efficient offense and potential home game on the road.

Buffalo Bills (+214 ML) over Tennessee Titans

The Bills defense has allowed just 31 points (and three touchdowns) in their last 10 quarters. It's one thing if Buffalo played poor offenses, but the team slowed down the Chargers (for two quarters), Vikings and Packers, all of whom have excellent offensive talent.

The Titans don't fit that bill. The running game has stalled all year; according to Football Outsiders, the team has the third-worst in running back yards per carry (3.15) in the league. The passing game has been hit-or-miss, but in fairness, Tennessee is without No. 1 tight end Delanie Walker, and quarterback Marcus Mariota battled through an elbow injury for three weeks.

Still, the Titans haven't scored more than 20 points in regulation all season, and they may have issues against a hot Bills defense.

Buffalo is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss to Green Bay and should have trouble with the Titans defense, but it's not impossible to see an ugly 13-10 win here for the home side.

Sucker Bet: Los Angeles Rams (-360 ML) at Seattle Seahawks

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The 4-0 Rams can make the best case for being the NFL's No. 1 team. When they get back kicker Greg Zuerlein from injury, they'll have the most well-rounded squad in football with no close second.

They are playing a Seahawks team that just lost its best player in safety Earl Thomas, who had three interceptions for the year before suffering a lower left leg fracture against Arizona last Sunday.

That's partially why the Rams are big favorites in Week 5, but a few things are working against them.

First, their run defense has struggled, ranking 23rd in rush-defense efficiency, per Football Outsiders. Meanwhile, the Seahawks running game has woken up in recent weeks, most notably when Mike Davis rushed for 101 yards and a pair of scores on 21 touches.

Second, the Rams have given up a few big passing plays in recent weeks, notably a 42-yard touchdown to Chargers wideout Mike Williams and a 45-yard score to Minnesota's Adam Thielen. The 'Hawks have two players (Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett) who can beat the Rams deep.

Although the Rams are the likely victors here, betting $360 to win $100 on them is a tough sell against a Seattle offense that may find success at home.

Lock of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Minnesota Vikings

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The Vikings defense is unrecognizable from last season. Through four games, Minnesota is giving up 6.1 yards per play, which is the sixth-worst mark in the league. It is tied for third-worst in football with 7.8 net passing yards allowed per play.

That defense is heading into Philadelphia banged up, with defensive ends Everson Griffen and Tashawn Bower and cornerback Trae Waynes out.

Furthermore, the Minnesota running game has stalled, and no player has more than 100 rushing yards through four weeks. Starter Dalvin Cook has been slowed by a hamstring injury and is still not 100 percent. He's a game-time decision, per Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

These factors may lead to trouble against the Eagles. Granted, Philly sports a disappointing 2-2 record, but the team lost by a touchdown on the road against the then-scorching hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense and by a field goal in overtime at the 3-1 Titans.

The Eagles have also dealt with their share of injuries, with quarterback Carson Wentz, running back Jay Ajayi and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery on the field together just once this year. However, they're starting to get healthier and are in better shape than the Vikings.

Although the stellar Minnesota passing game should get its share of wins against an inconsistent secondary, the Philadelphia offense will overpower the reeling Vikings defense. Take Philadelphia minus the three points.

All money lines, spreads and over/under totals are via OddsShark and accurate as of Friday at 11 p.m. ET. All other bet types are through Oddschecker and accurate as of Friday at 11 p.m. ET.