Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 2, 2018

New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, left, talks to quarterback Tom Brady before an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Sept. 30, 2018, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Double-digit favorites are not exactly lighting up the pay window this season, going just 2-3 straight up and 1-4 against the spread so far. The New England Patriots fall into that category this week, favored by double digits for Thursday night's meeting at home with the Indianapolis Colts.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 10.5-point favorites; the total was 53.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.4-16.2 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts are only 1-3 SU on the season but they could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1. Indy opened this campaign with a 34-23 loss to Cincinnati, but the Colts led that game at one point 23-10 and had a chance to win late, until a fumble at the Bengals' 15-yard line went the other way for a Cincinnati touchdown.

Indianapolis then won at Washington 21-9 but lost at Philadelphia 20-16 in a game the Colts led late, and had a chance at the end, reaching the Eagles' 4-yard line before coming up empty on a fourth down.

And last week Indianapolis battled back from down 28-10 to Houston to force overtime, and actually led in OT, but botched the final moments and lost 37-34 on a Texans field goal on the final play. Realistically the Colts have had chances to win every game they've played this season.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots just snapped a rare two-game losing skid with a rousing 38-7 victory over what was a hot Miami outfit last week. New England only led the Dolphins 3-0 after one quarter but a 55-yard Tom Brady-to-Cordarrelle Patterson throw for a touchdown early in the second broke things open. The Patriots took a 24-0 lead into halftime and pushed that advantage to 38-0 before allowing Miami to avoid the shutout with a meaningless score with just under three minutes to go.

New England out-gained the Dolphins 449-172, made 26 first downs to just 11 for Miami, ran the ball for 175 yards and won time of possession by a 36/24 split. The Patriots also easily covered the spread as six-point favorites.

New England is actually 9-1 ATS over its last 10 home games, which is impressive, considering some of the point spreads it's faced during that span.

Smart betting pick

The Colts are playing in some hard luck this season, with three tough losses. But they're also 2-0 ATS on the road. The Patriots, meanwhile, are a bit difficult to peg at the moment. They looked good in wins over Houston and Miami but downright pedestrian in losses to Jacksonville and Detroit. New England, of course, will still probably win this game but the smart money takes Indianapolis and the points.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in seven of the Colts' last eight games against the Patriots.

The Colts are 1-8 SU in their last nine games at night.

The Colts are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on a Thursday.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.