NFL Week 4 Betting Guide: Odds, Props and Picks
"It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."
Who uttered the phrase is up for debate, but regardless of the source, it's unlikely any of them was referring to the 2018 NFL season, which has been a disaster for prognosticators.
Bettors are off to their worst start in at least 15 years, according to Evan Abrams of the Action Network.
Quoting Abrams: "There have been 47 games so far in 2018 where at least 51 percent of the tickets on the point spread were on one team. In those 47 games, the public teams are 15-31-1 against the spread, losing bettors 16.8 units."
He also noted that "public spread bettors are actually under .500 straight-up too, with a record of 22-23-2."
That's an ugly start, but we're only three weeks into the 2018 campaign. Fourteen more slates of games are on tap between now and the end of the regular season in December.
Looking ahead, we have a few big spreads like last week, with five underdogs of seven or more points. None of the upsets will be as notable as the Buffalo Bills' 27-6 Week 3 win over the Minnesota Vikings as 16.5-point underdogs, but will the NFL madness continue?
Here's a betting guide for Week 4 alongside some picks against the spread, props, the lock of the week and more.
Moneyline Picks and Picks Against the Spread
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Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: Rams (-7 and -290)
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons: Bengals (+3.5 and +170)
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: Lions (+3 and +132)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: Colts (-1 and -110)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Patriots (-6.5 and -280)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans: Titans (+3.5 and +160)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: Bears (-3 and -163)
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders: Browns (+3 and +130)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: Seahawks (-3 and -173)
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: Giants (+3.5 and +150)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers: Chargers (-10.5 and -450)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers (-3 and -158)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: Broncos (+4.5 and +173)
ML Season Record: 27-20-2
ATS Season Record: 23-24-2
Stay-Away Games
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Good luck trying to figure out an edge in this matchup.
The Ravens-Steelers series can lay claim to being the most heated rivalry this century. No matter the personnel, the game always seems to be close between these two AFC North teams.
Since the 2008 season (which marks the beginning of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era), 18 of the teams' 23 games have been decided by single digits.
The Steelers are three-point favorites at home, which means that the sportsbooks peg these teams on an even plane skill-wise. Baltimore has the better defense and kicker (Justin Tucker), but the Pittsburgh offense has sprung to life recently with 67 points in its last two games.
The Steelers have two fantastic wide receivers (Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster), but the Ravens have two of the game's best cornerbacks (Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr). The pair has combined for nine passes defended and helps lead the league's sixth-most efficient pass defense, per Football Outsiders.
This is never a comfortable matchup to bet, and this year is no exception. It's the clear stay-away game of the week.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
Good luck trying to figure out the true identities of these two teams.
The Jets dominated the Lions 48-17 in Week 1 in Detroit, but they laid an offensive egg in Week 2 (a 20-12 home loss to the Miami Dolphins) and blew a 14-0 lead in a 21-17 defeat to the Browns in Week 3.
The defense is clearly stout thanks to linebacker Darron Lee, safety Jamal Adams, defensive end Leonard Williams and others, but the offense is a work in progress (as expected with 21-year-old rookie Sam Darnold learning via trial by fire).
The Jaguars squeaked by the New York Giants 20-15 and soundly beat the New England Patriots 31-20, but they followed those wins with a 9-6 home loss to the Titans in which the Jags were favored by 10 points.
This looks like a low-scoring game in which both teams will struggle to approach 20 points, but given the disparity in their performances this year, it's best to find other betting opportunities.
Prop Bets You Can Take to the Bank
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Houston Texans: Under 2.5 Touchdowns (-138) at Indianapolis Colts
The Houston Texans offense has not scored more than two touchdowns against any of its three opponents.
The Colts defense is the best one it will face yet. If judging by yards allowed per play, Indianapolis (5.3, tied for ninth in the league) is better than the Titans (19th), Patriots (21st) and Giants (23rd).
Indianapolis has allowed just 29 points in its last two games, road tilts against the Washington Redskins (a 21-9 win) and the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (a 20-16 loss).
The Colts also have some excellent defensive talent. Rookie linebacker Darius Leonard is the league leader in tackles (41) and tied for sixth in sacks (three). Defensive lineman Margus Hunt has enjoyed a breakout year and earned three sacks. He and Leonard are one-two in tackles for loss, per Colts.com contributor Jake Arthur.
They'll both be tough matchups for a Texans offensive line that has not fared well protecting quarterback Deshaun Watson, allowing an 8.8 percent sack rate (25th in the NFL).
For its part, the Indianapolis defensive line has an 8.5 percent sack rate (seventh). That mismatch could dictate this contest.
Look for the Texans' passing game to have a tough day en route to another low-scoring affair.
Detroit Lions: Race to 20 Points (+110) at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have not scored more than 20 points this season, averaging 13.7 through three games. While running back Ezekiel Elliott is off to a hot start (5.7 yards per carry), the passing offense ranks 29th in efficiency, per Football Outsiders. Quarterback Dak Prescott is averaging just 166 passing yards per game, and wide receiver Cole Beasley is the only pass-catcher with more than 83 receiving yards.
The Lions defense was one of the worst in the league through two games, but it shut down the Patriots offense Sunday, keeping it to 10 points and holding quarterback Tom Brady to 133 passing yards. That isn't an easy task.
In Week 4, Detroit will be facing a defense sans linebacker Sean Lee, who is going to miss time with a hamstring injury.
The Cowboys defense is night and day with him on and off the field.
Lee missed five games last season, and Todd Archer of ESPN.com noted the difference without him on the field: "In the five games without Lee, the defense allowed an average of 21.2 first downs, 386.4 yards, 135.2 rushing yards and 25.8 points per game. In the 11 games with Lee, the defense allowed an average of 18.7 first downs, 287 yards, 89.8 rushing yards and 17.4 points per game."
In the race-to-20-points prop, the Lions may win this one unopposed.
Spreads to Bet
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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5)
This is Week 4's most bizarre matchup. The Chiefs are first in offensive and special teams efficiency, per Football Outsiders, but dead last in defense.
Meanwhile, you can't find a more average team than the Broncos, who are 15th on offense, 16th on defense and 14th on special teams.
The explosive Chiefs offense can pummel the Broncos with 35-plus points to win, but it's hard to stomach giving 4.5 points on the road against a team that isn't a pushover.
Denver won its first two games before losing 27-14 to the Ravens (they outscored the Broncos 10-0 after running back Phillip Lindsay was ejected in the second quarter).
Lindsay is back this week, and he and Royce Freeman should be focal points in the game plan. If the duo is effective and able to control time of possession, the Chiefs will be left with fewer scoring opportunities. They may find success in that endeavor, as Kansas City allows the second-most yards per carry in football (5.2).
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)
The 49ers looked like playoff contenders in the preseason, but a rash of injuries to players in key positions has put 2018 in peril.
Starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is out for the year after suffering a torn ACL. Three 49ers defensive backs (cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Ahkello Witherspoon and safety Jaquiski Tartt) are on the injury report.
Sherman is expected to miss time, and Tartt did not practice all week and isn't expected to play. Witherspoon should be good to go.
Running back Matt Breida is a game-time decision as he fights through a knee injury.
The 49ers are in tough shape heading into Los Angeles, where they'll face a Chargers team that has excelled on offense (third in efficiency, per Football Outsiders) but is 26th and 31st in defense and special teams, respectively.
That being said, the Bolts have faced the Chiefs and Rams, arguably the two best offensive teams in football. San Francisco is a large step down given the loss of Garoppolo (and of running back Jerick McKinnon in the preseason).
Although it never feels easy to bet on a team giving 10.5 points before kickoff, the Bolts have the clear advantage.
Line Movement
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Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons: ATL -5.5 to ATL -3.5 and 48 O/U to 53.5 O/U
Do you think sharp bettors have faith in the Bengals offense Sunday at Atlanta?
The over/under total has ballooned five full points, and the spread has shifted two points in favor of Cincinnati.
This could foreshadow a big game for the Bengals, who have scored 82 points on offense through three games. They average 6.1 yards per play (ninth in the league). No. 1 wideout A.J. Green is one of the best in the game, No. 2 wideout Tyler Boyd is enjoying a breakout season, and tight end Tyler Eifert is healthy for the first time in three years and looks like the player who scored 13 touchdowns in 13 games in 2015.
Now Cincinnati is facing a Falcons team that is without three injured starters (safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen and linebacker Deion Jones) and just gave up 43 points at home to New Orleans.
Granted, the Saints' explosive offense isn't a match for nearly any defense, but a team can only incur so many injuries before feeling a significant impact. Look for the Bengals to have a big offensive day in what could end up being a shootout.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: NE -9.5 to NE -6.5
This number has dropped significantly after bettors watched the Patriots lay an egg against the Lions in a 26-10 loss on Sunday Night Football. But the line has continued to move days later, with the spread dropping below the pivotal seven-point mark to 6.5.
For one, it's possible that the Dolphins are for real. They are 3-0 and have allowed just 52 points through three games. Per Football Outsiders, they are second in team efficiency and the only squad with top-eight marks in offense, defense and special teams.
On the other hand, the Pats' only victory has come against one of three winless teams in football (Houston). Otherwise, they were always a step or two behind in a 31-20 loss to the Jaguars and just gave Detroit its first win.
It's never smart to discount the Pats, who have overcome slow starts in years past to win Super Bowls. But the defense is one of the worst in football, as it is 26th in running back yards per carry allowed and second-to-last in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders.
The New England offense may need to have a dominant game to come out on top.
Easy Over/Unders
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 46.5 Points (Under)
While the Buccaneers offense has exploded for 95 of the team's 102 points through three weeks, Tampa Bay is facing its toughest test of the season when it travels to Soldier Field to face the daunting Chicago defense.
Led by edge-rusher Khalil Mack (league-leading four sacks), the Bears are No. 1 in adjusted sack rate, third in running back yards per carry allowed and first in defensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders.
It's a tough matchup for the Bucs' entire offense, but it's particularly hard to imagine that the running game will get going, as starting running back Peyton Barber has averaged just 2.9 yards per carry.
On the other side, the Bears offense has been stagnant outside the first quarter. In particular, quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has not found as much success after the first 15 minutes. Per NFL analyst Warren Sharp, the second-year quarterback throws for just 4.8 yards per attempt in the second through fourth quarters compared to 8.0 in the first.
Per Arif Hasan of The Athletic, Trubisky also has significant issues throwing to his left. He's 8-of-15 for 47 yards on throws to the left past the line of scrimmage (3.13 yards per attempt) but 42-of-62 for 463 yards (7.47 yards per attempt) to the right or middle.
This could foreshadow a lower-scoring game in which neither offense gets into a rhythm.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders: 45 Points (Under)
Through three games, Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has four sacks, 10 tackles, two forced fumbles and two passes defended.
Defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi has amassed 18 tackles and three sacks. Linebacker Joe Schobert has 23 tackles, three passes defended, two fumble recoveries and an interception. Cornerback Denzel Ward had two interceptions against the Steelers, and cornerback Terrance Mitchell had two forced fumbles against the Saints.
Long story short, the defense is making big plays, which is why it is one of the best units in the league. More impressively, the Browns have held Pittsburgh and New Orleans to 21 points each. Otherwise, those two teams have averaged 37.5 points per game.
A matchup with the Raiders isn't as threatening as a game against those two, as the Silver and Black haven't surpassed the 20-point barrier yet. Take the under.
Value Bets
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Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans: Titans ML (+160)
The Philadelphia Eagles are banged up. Running back Jay Ajayi will return after missing Week 3, but he's dealing with a back fracture, which sounds a bit painful. Darren Sproles is out again. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery's status is unknown: He was limited in practice with a shoulder injury Wednesday and missed Thursday and Friday with an illness.
Safety Rodney McLeod is out for the season with an injury. Michael Bennett has an illness. Running back Corey Clement and wideout Jordan Matthews are dealing with quad and hamstring injuries, respectively.
The Eagles squeaked by the Colts at home after a strong late-game stand in their own territory, but now they travel south and face a Titans team whose defense has allowed just 43 points through three games, including just six against the AFC runner-up Jaguars.
Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is getting over an elbow injury that forced him from action in parts of Weeks 1 and 3 and all of Week 2. Per Erik Bacharach of the Nashville Tennessean, that injury caused numbness and gave Mariota trouble as he did routine tasks, like turning a key.
Mariota noted that "[the injury has] gotten better and those things have kind of gone away." That should help an offense that has struggled so far.
Overall, this has the feel of an ugly 17-13 game. Give the slight edge to the home team.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: Giants ML (+150)
As good as the Saints offense has been (104 points through three weeks), it may struggle to keep pace against a Giants offense that presents serious matchup issues.
Defensive end Cameron Jordan (four sacks) has been the lone bright spot on a New Orleans defense that has allowed 96 points through three weeks. Outside Jordan, the team can't generate any pass rush (two team sacks).
And the secondary has struggled all year. Per Dan Schneier of 247Sports, Pro Football Focus noted that cornerbacks P.J. Williams and Ken Crawley have allowed 22 receptions on 27 targets for 456 yards. New Orleans still has No. 1 corner Marshon Lattimore, but he can only do so much.
The Saints have shut down the run and are first in run-defense efficiency, per Football Outsiders, but it doesn't matter given their 32nd-ranked pass-defense efficiency.
The Giants have the personnel to take on the New Orleans defense. First, No. 1 wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is a tough matchup for anyone, so he can get the best of Lattimore despite the cornerback's skills.
No. 2 wide receiver Sterling Shepard is coming off a six-catch, 80-yard, one-touchdown game and will likely see the aforementioned Crawley and Williams.
Running back Saquon Barkley may get bottled up, but he's an excellent pass-catcher—see his 3rd-and-1 reception late in his Week 3 game against the Texans for proof (starts at 2:25)—and a mismatch for anyone the Saints try to put on him.
If quarterback Eli Manning gets enough time from his offensive line, which improved last week after two disastrous outings, then give the edge to the Giants at home.
Sucker Bets
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Green Bay Packers (-390) over Buffalo Bills
You have to pay $390 to win $100 if you take the Green Bay Packers money line Sunday.
The Packers offense could wake up and drop four touchdowns before halftime, and the Bills, who shocked the Minnesota Vikings last week, could turn back into a pumpkin.
But Green Bay is in a bad place injury-wise.
Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson is likely out for the year with an ankle injury. Outside linebacker Nick Perry suffered a concussion Sunday against the Washington Redskins and didn't practice this week. Right guard Justin McCray is doubtful. Wideout Randall Cobb was a surprise entrant on the injury report Thursday. He was limited in practice following a hamstring injury and is questionable.
Meanwhile, the Bills look like a different team after a horrid start. After losing to the Ravens 47-3 and falling behind to the Los Angeles Chargers 28-3, the Bills have outscored their opponents 44-9. Rookie quarterback Josh Allen has done a tremendous job of keeping plays and drives alive with his legs and finding the open receiver downfield.
Look for Green Bay to hold serve at home and win this game (it's hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field), but it could be close enough to make any Packers money-line backers sweat.
Los Angeles Chargers (-450) over San Francisco 49ers
As noted earlier, Los Angeles looks like a shoo-in to beat the 49ers. But nearly everyone (including this writer) said the same thing about Minnesota last week, and the team lost by 21 points at home to the winless Bills.
The Vikings were giant -1400 favorites on the money line entering the game, but we recommended that bettors avoid it because of (a) the terrible value in betting $1,400 to win $100 and (b) the fact that anything can happen. Not a unique hot take.
Anything did happen as the Vikings were noncompetitive for four quarters.
The same thing can happen to the favorite Chargers. Maybe the banged-up 49ers get the running game going and dominate the time of possession. Maybe Los Angeles commits some turnovers and misses some field goals. Maybe San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan orchestrates a flawless offensive game plan.
It's tough to recommend betting $450 to win $100 in any circumstances, but an upset here isn't out of the realm of possibility.
Lock of the Week: Seattle Seahawks (-3) over Arizona Cardinals
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The Seattle Seahawks defense no longer has the Legion of Boom, but one key member (safety Earl Thomas) remains. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the league's best defensive player through three weeks. He has been a one-man wrecking crew, amassing 18 tackles and three interceptions.
The Seahawks rank sixth in defensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders, and fourth in pass defense.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals offense is in disarray and has scored just 20 points through three weeks. Head coach Steve Wilks made the switch to Josh Rosen late in Week 3 against the Bears, and the rookie quarterback will get the starting nod ahead of veteran Sam Bradford to try to give the team a boost.
Although moving to Rosen to jump-start a 0-3 team was the right decision, this matchup looks nearly impossible for him. The Cardinals have another issue in that they haven't been able to create much space for superstar running back David Johnson (3.4 yards per carry).
All told, the Cardinals offense looks like it's in for a rough day. The Seahawks offense may not need to do much to win this one.
All money lines, spreads and over/under totals are via OddsShark and accurate as of Saturday at 12:30 a.m. ET. All other bet types are through Oddschecker and accurate as of Saturday at 12:30 a.m. ET.
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