Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers take on a familiar foe when they host the Chicago Bears as big home favorites at the sportsbooks for the Week 1 Sunday night matchup.

Rodgers missed nine games last season due to a fractured collarbone, but he owns an outstanding lifetime record of 15-4 straight up in 19 meetings with the Bears.

NFL point spread: The Packers opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.5-18.5 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago has high hopes of being much more competitive under first-year head coach Matt Nagy, whose main job is to continue developing second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears already have a good defense, though, and got even better with the addition of All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack in a trade with the Oakland Raiders on Sept. 1.

Mack's availability remains in question after he held out of training camp, but his presence will give the team a huge boost regardless. If Trubisky can just find a way to get Chicago into the end zone at least a couple of times, a cover is definitely possible.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The betting trends in favor of Green Bay are eye-popping. The Packers have won eight of the past nine meetings SU, going 12-3 ATS in the last 15 head-to-head matchups, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. They have also won seven straight in the role of home favorites, going 6-1 ATS in those games.

The Bears have lost nine consecutive divisional games as well, covering only two of the last seven. The average margin of victory for their opponents in those NFC North games is more than 10 points.

Smart betting pick

The big names in this game will obviously be Rodgers and Mack, and rightfully so. They are two of the highest-paid players in the league right now. However, Trubisky is the most critical for Chicago, as Rodgers has dominated this rivalry for a decade.

The Bears believe in Trubisky, and he may be able to handle the spotlight when he gets a few more games under this belt. That said, the experience of Rodgers will prevail again.

NFL betting trends

The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against the Packers.

The Packers are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.

The total has gone over in six of the Packers' last seven games in Week 1.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.