Deal or No Deal: MLB Trade Predictions 1 Month from the Deadline
With July fast approaching, the MLB trade-rumor game is about to begin in earnest. Chatter and speculation will swirl.
With that in mind, let's play a round of deal or no deal with 15 possible trade scenarios involving all 30 MLB teams. Some are based on credible rumors; others are informed speculation based on buyers' needs and sellers' assets.
To be clear: If a proposed swap comes after "deal," we're predicting it will (or at least quite possibly could) happen. If it comes after "no deal," we're saying it won't.
Deal: Arizona Diamondbacks Acquire SS Manny Machado from Baltimore Orioles
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The Arizona Diamondbacks have gotten paltry production from the left side of the infield. Shortstop Nick Ahmed is hitting .216. Third baseman Jake Lamb is hitting .228.
Those happen to be positions superstar Manny Machado can capably man, and he's playing in a contract year for a last-placed Baltimore Orioles team.
The Snakes aren't the only fit for Machado, but they look like the best one as they try to wrest National League West supremacy away from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
A package headlined by top position-player prospect Pavin Smith, who is blocked at first base by Paul Goldschmidt, could be enough to pique the Orioles' interest.
No Deal: Philadelphia Phillies Acquire 3B Adrian Beltre from Texas Rangers
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The Philadelphia Phillies could likewise be a landing spot for Machado after shortstop J.P. Crawford landed on the disabled list with a broken hand.
They've also expressed interest in Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
Beltre, a possible future Hall of Famer, is hitting .314 with an .821 OPS and would provide veteran leadership for a young Phillies team.
At the same time, he's missed significant time to injury, is 39 years old and is an impending free agent. Unless the Rangers are simply giving him away (spoiler alert: they aren't), Philadelphia should take a pass.
Deal: Boston Red Sox Acquire INF Jed Lowrie from Oakland Athletics
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With veteran second baseman Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list and Eduardo Nunez posting an anemic .634 OPS, the Boston Red Sox could reunite with an old friend and shore up a weakness.
That old friend would be Oakland Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie, who played the first four seasons of his career with Boston and is hitting .281 with 11 home runs for Oakland.
Lowrie would be a rental, so the Red Sox wouldn't have to dip into the top tier of a so-so farm system and instead could probably entice the perennially retooling A's with a durable mid-minors arm such as right-hander Travis Lakins.
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Deal: Atlanta Braves Acquire 3B Mike Moustakas from Kansas City Royals
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The burgeoning Atlanta Braves are surprise leaders in the NL East. They may look for bullpen reinforcements but could also stand to shore up third base.
Johan Camarago has a solid .803 OPS in June, but the 24-year-old is hitting just .244 overall. Counting on him to top the depth chart is dicey.
Enter Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, a two-time All-Star with extensive postseason experience.
Moustakas has cooled after a torrid start but has hit 14 home runs and tallied 48 RBI. He's only hitting .255 himself, but his mettle has been tested on the biggest stage. That's a meaningful consideration for a young, inexperienced squad looking to make a run.
The Braves shouldn't skim from the top of their stacked system. The Royals might bite on a high-upside arm such as power sinkerballer Bryse Wilson, though.
If so, Atlanta should jump at the chance to add a power bat and an October-tested veteran.
No Deal: Miami Marlins Trade C J.T. Realmuto to Washington Nationals
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The Washington Nationals need a catcher after Matt Wieters underwent hamstring surgery in May, an ominous injury for a guy who squats for a living.
The Miami Marlins are in everything-must-go mode and have J.T. Realmuto, who paces all qualified MLB backstops with a .916 OPS.
It seems like a match, though Nationals executive Mike Rizzo tapped the brakes on the rumor.
"We know what the return has to be on Realmuto, and we're not willing to meet that price," he said on Sirius XM's MLB Network Radio. "So unless something changes on their end, we're going to go with Wieters when he's healthy."
Maybe Miami will lower its ask. If Realmuto keeps performing like the best catcher in the game, however, that's unlikely.
Deal: Houston Astros Acquire LHP Brad Hand from San Diego Padres
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The Houston Astros bullpen ranks second in baseball with a 2.64 ERA. Other than Tony Sipp, however, they're short on left-handed options.
Plus, they're trying to defend a title. You can always gild the lily.
Hence a possible swap for San Diego Padres southpaw Brad Hand, who boasts a 2.82 ERA, 21 saves and an eye-popping 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
He's locked into an affordable contract that runs through 2021 with a team option, so the price will be high. The Astros should avoid trading top prospect Kyle Tucker but could build a package around power-hitting Cuban Yordan Alvarez.
Deal: Seattle Mariners Acquire LHP J.A. Happ from Toronto Blue Jays
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The Seattle Mariners are trying to bust a 16-year playoff drought. Their starting pitchers rank in the middle of the MLB pack with a 4.12 ERA.
The M's could target Toronto Blue Jays left-hander J.A. Happ, who has struck out 102 in 91 innings with a 3.56 ERA.
The 35-year-old will be a free agent after the season. Assuming the Jays realize they can't compete with the New York Yankees and Red Sox in the top-heavy AL East, they could ship Happ to the Pacific Northwest for a package centered on toolsy outfielder Braden Bishop.
No Deal: Colorado Rockies Acquire 1B Jose Abreu from Chicago White Sox
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The Colorado Rockies were connected, at least speculatively, to Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu in early May by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Such speculation could increase as we get closer to the deadline.
Abreu's production has dipped in June, but he has 11 home runs and a .796 OPS. Those numbers would surely enjoy a Coors Field bump. And they look pretty good next to the .216 average and .718 OPS Rockies first baseman Ian Desmond has posted while playing half his games at mile-high altitude.
Desmond has been surging, however, with a .936 OPS in June. And the ChiSox will surely demand a steep return for Abreu.
The Rockies may be active come July as they fight to get back to the playoffs, but this doesn't appear to be a match.
Deal: Los Angeles Angels Acquire RHP Ivan Nova from Pittsburgh Pirates
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Los Angeles Angels starting pitchers rank fourth in the AL with a 3.74 ERA. But with two-way Japanese star Shohei Ohtani in elbow-injury limbo and right-hander Garrett Richards on the DL with a hamstring strain, the Halos may go shopping.
One possible target: Pittsburgh Pirates righty Ivan Nova, a solid-mid rotation option who boasts an 0.92 ERA in June.
The 31-year-old is signed through 2019 but likely wouldn't force the Halos to decimate an MiLB stockpile they've just begun to rebuild.
Right-handed sinkerballer Jesus Castillo and a couple of ancillary pieces from the Angels' farm might get the Bucs to pick up the phone.
No Deal: Cincinnati Reds Trade 2B Scooter Gennett to Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers could use a boost at the keystone sack, with Chase Utley recently returned from the disabled list and hitting .224 and Logan Forsythe hitting .225 with a .279 on-base percentage.
Expect to hear rumors connecting the defending NL champions with Cincinnati Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett.
Gennett is in the midst of a career year with the Reds. He's hitting .332 with 13 home runs and won't hit free agency until 2020.
There are two impediments to a deal here. First, the Dodgers would surely have to give away at least one blue-chip prospect such as outfielder Alex Verdugo, and that hasn't been executive Andrew Friedman's style since he took the helm in SoCal.
Second, the Reds may be tempted to anchor their rebuild around Gennett and even lock him into a long-term deal given his success and controllability.
Deal: Chicago Cubs Acquire RHP Addison Reed from Minnesota Twins
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The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks fifth in the game with a 3.12 ERA. The Cubs pen has also been overtaxed, as Chicago starters have struggled to routinely pitch deep into games.
Carl Edwards Jr. (shoulder) and Brandon Morrow (back) are both on the DL.
Thus, the Cubs could eschew any talk of trading for Machado and instead focus on upgrading the relief corps. Come playoff time, assuming the Cubbies get there, you can never have too many late-inning arms.
Chicago could set its sights on Minnesota Twins right-hander Addison Reed, who has prior experience as a closer and owns a 3.47 ERA in 36.1 innings.
Chicago doesn't have a deep farm system. Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranked it last in the game. And the Twins will have to decide if they're buyers or sellers in the muddled AL Central.
Assuming the Twins sell, the Cubs could offer a potentially solid future relief arm such as High-A right-hander Erich Uelmen.
Deal: Cleveland Indians Acquire RHP Shane Greene from Detroit Tigers
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Once upon a time, the bullpen was the backbone of the Cleveland Indians. Now, it's an unmitigated weakness.
Indians relievers rank 28th in baseball with a 5.21 ERA. Stud left-hander Andrew Miller is out with knee issues.
The Tribe could probably stand pat and win the AL Central. The goal, however, is to break MLB's longest title drought.
The Detroit Tigers are off to a surprisingly decent start but remain in rebuild mode. The two clubs could link up for an in-division deal involving right-hander Shane Greene, who has a 3.57 ERA, 19 saves and has averaged 10.2 strikeouts per nine.
Greene is controllable through 2020, so Cleveland would have to part with a decent MiLB piece, such as power-hitting third baseman Nolan Jones, and more. It'd be worth it to shore up a glaring deficiency.
No Deal: Milwaukee Brewers Acquire RHP Jacob deGrom from New York Mets
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The Milwaukee Brewers are in first place in the NL Central. Their starting pitchers own a respectable 3.98 ERA, but they could use an ace to push them over the top.
The New York Mets, meanwhile, are buried in fourth place in the NL East and are willing to consider offers on "virtually everyone," per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
That would include right-hander Jacob deGrom, who leads the Senior Circuit with a 1.69 ERA and has struck out 126 in 101.1 innings.
He'd make the Brewers, or any club, immeasurably better. He'd also cost a system-gutting package. The Brew Crew would have to start with top prospect Keston Hiura and go from there.
The issue is the Mets. Note that Rosenthal added the caveat "virtually" to the notion of everyone. If any current player is untouchable in Queens, it's deGrom, who is a Cy Young contender and under club control through 2020.
Translation: He's not going anywhere.
Deal: St. Louis Cardinals Acquire RHP Sergio Romo from Tampa Bay Rays
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The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen is 20th in MLB with a 4.19 ERA. While you'll hear talk of the Cards going after glitzy names such as Machado, this is a serious area of need.
He's not the top reliever who could be available, but the Tampa Bay Rays' Sergio Romo is an interesting potential target for St. Louis.
The 35-year-old right-hander's 4.78 ERA doesn't leap off the stat sheet. On the other hand, he's struck out 37 in 32 innings and has extensive postseason experience from his days with the San Francisco Giants.
More importantly, he wouldn't cost the Cardinals any of their top young pitchers and could probably be had for someone like High-A right-hander Casey Meisner.
No Deal: San Francisco Giants Trade LHP Madison Bumgarner to New York Yankees
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The New York Yankees sit in first place in the AL East. They have a ludicrously loaded lineup that's hitting all the home runs (and that's barely an exaggeration).
There's trouble in the rotation, however. Jordan Montgomery is out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Masahiro Tanaka is working his way back from two strained hamstrings. Sonny Gray sports a 4.93 ERA.
It's inevitable, then, that the Yanks will be connected to any and all aces. Including Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner.
Joe Giglio of NJ.com was musing about a Bumgarner-to-the-Yankees deal on May 1 when Bumgarner was still on the DL with a broken pinkie. Now that MadBum's back, the chatter will surely grow louder.
Imagine it: The big southpaw in pinstripes under baseball's brightest lights, adding another chapter to his postseason legend.
OK, now let's get real.
The Giants are hanging around .500 and in the NL playoff mix. Bumgarner, along with catcher Buster Posey, is the co-face of the franchise. San Francisco added veterans such as third baseman Evan Longoria and outfielder Andrew McCutchen this winter in a clear signal they were going for it.
If the Yankees lost their minds and offered infielder Gleyber Torres, outfielder Clint Frazier and the reanimated ghost of Mickey Mantle? Sure, maybe.
But that's not happening, and neither is this deal.
All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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