One 2018 Trade Season Prediction for Each MLB Team
There will be no rest for the weary in Major League Baseball front offices once the draft is concluded. After all, the summer trade season is up next.
We have a few ideas for how it's going to shake out.
Ahead are predictions for what each of MLB's 30 teams will do between now and the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. For buyers, this involves speculating on which trade targets will fill needs. For sellers, it means looking at who might stay. For teams in between, it means projecting which way they'll ultimately lean.
We'll go in alphabetical order by city.
Note: All records and stats accurate through play on Monday.
Arizona Diamondbacks: They'll Win the Manny Machado Sweepstakes
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With Robbie Ray and Shelby Miller on the comeback trail, the Arizona Diamondbacks' starting rotation will soon get a much-needed boost from within.
This means they can focus their trade season energy on Manny Machado.
The Baltimore Orioles shortstop has many potential suitors, but none needs him as much as the D-backs. He's a guy with a 1.030 OPS and 18 home runs, and they're a team with a .676 OPS that outpaces just one other team's. As per usual, light-hitting shortstop Nick Ahmed (.667 OPS) isn't helping the cause.
Although Machado is a rental who's pulling down $16 million, he won't come with a cheap acquisition cost. Arizona will almost certainly have to surrender top pitching prospect Jon Duplantier (health permitting), plus a little extra.
Since the potential prize is nothing less than a National League West title, that should be doable.
Atlanta Braves: They'll Trade for a Healthy Zach Britton
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The Atlanta Braves can deal for a third baseman or a starter, but they can just as easily solve those needs in-house by promoting Austin Riley and picking pieces out of their treasure trove of young pitchers.
Instead, the Braves should seek to improve a bullpen that, despite its solid 3.86 ERA, could use a reliable left-hander and/or an upgrade over Arodys Vizcaino at closer.
If healthy, Zach Britton would be the perfect guy to kill both of those birds.
The "if healthy" part has recently been a major caveat for the Baltimore Orioles left-hander, who's due for free agency at season's end. But as of now, Britton is feeling good in his recovery from rupturing his Achilles tendon in December. He may yet return to resemble the guy who had a 1.38 ERA between 2014 and 2016.
Such a pitcher could be instrumental in helping the Braves finish off their rise in the NL East.
Baltimore Orioles: Adam Jones Will Be Spared from the Fire Sale
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The Orioles are so deep in the American League East cellar that general manager Dan Duquette started talking openly about a possible fire sale before May was out.
"At some point, we're going to have to reckon with the fact that some of these players that are currently on our club might be more help to get us players that will help us win in future," he said on 670 The Score.
Adam Jones, however, seems like a good bet to stick around to the bitter end. The 32-year-old is a massive sentimental favorite within Baltimore, and his trade value isn't conducive to a deal.
He's making $17.3 million to produce minus-0.3 WAR, in large because of his poor defense. Further, his career home/road splits raise a question about how much damage he would do away from Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Potential suitors may thus be unwilling to convince the Orioles to part with him.
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Boston Red Sox: They'll Bring Back Jed Lowrie
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Although the Boston Red Sox are on the extreme opposite end of the American League East spectrum from the Orioles, they're not without their needs. And the list just got an unfortunate addition.
If the Red Sox were planning on Dustin Pedroia holding down second base following his return from knee surgery, those plans are now in jeopardy after the 34-year-old returned to the disabled list with further knee trouble.
Boston could keep trusting his spot to Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt, but the former is having an awful year and the latter is best suited for a utility spot.
So, renting Jed Lowrie for the rest of the year makes sense. Formerly of the Red Sox and now with the Oakland A's, Lowrie has turned good health into an .818 OPS since 2017. He can also play third base, where Rafael Devers is having a rough go of things in his own right.
Chicago Cubs: They Won't Make Any Big Moves
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Judging from the many, many headlines that have been dedicated to the topic, it's seemingly just a matter of time before the Chicago Cubs trade for Machado.
Or not, if you believe what president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said on 670 The Score in May: "I can say with regards to this particular spasm of media frenzy, it is outrageously outsized when you compare it to the reality of the situation."
Speaking of the reality of the situation, the Cubs don't need to go big on the summer trade market.
Underneath their slightly disappointing 33-23 record is the National League's best run differential at plus-93. That hints at the overall strength of their roster. Apart from perhaps a No. 5 starter, it doesn't have any significant flaws.
This is a recipe for a surprisingly quiet trade deadline. Expect the Cubs to abide by it.
Chicago White Sox: They'll Get Something for James Shields
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The best trade chip the Chicago White Sox have is Jose Abreu, who's having another excellent season in his penultimate year before free agency.
But since the White Sox haven't shown a ton of interest in trading Abreu in the past, their summer trade activity may revolve around finding a taker for James Shields.
This seemed like a long shot coming into 2018, but the 36-year-old is putting his rocky 2016 and 2017 seasons behind him. With the help of an overhauled pitch mix, he's logged a 3.45 ERA over his last seven starts.
While Shields is earning $21 million this year, $11 million of that is on the San Diego Padres. So, it's no wonder that he's already drawing interest from contenders, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Thus, the White Sox should be able to do better than a mere salary dump when they trade him.
Cincinnati Reds: Raisel Iglesias Stays Put
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Among the Cincinnati Reds' array of trade chips are two guys who are sure to be in high demand: second baseman Scooter Gennett and closer Raisel Iglesias.
And yet, the latter isn't a lock to get traded.
There was plenty of interest in Iglesias over the winter, but Jon Heyman of FRS Sports reported that teams stopped inquiring because of Cincinnati's high asking price. Iglesias' section of the rumor mill has been quiet since.
The Reds' position makes sense. Iglesias owns a 2.41 ERA in 119 relief appearances and is under contract for cheap through 2020. The Reds have every reason to hold out for an Andrew Miller-like package.
However, it also makes sense if teams are hesitant to give in. Although he's very good, Iglesias isn't on Miller's level. There are also always plenty of alternatives on the relief pitcher market.
It could be that nobody blinks in the Iglesias sweepstakes.
Cleveland Indians: A Bewildered Bullpen Gets Brad Brach
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Of all the needs on all the contenders, few loom as large as the Cleveland Indians' need for bullpen help.
Their relievers have an MLB-worst 6.02 ERA. One problem is that Andrew Miller has spent the year bouncing between injured and ineffective. Beyond that, there's simply a shortage of good pitchers in Cleveland's bullpen.
Nonetheless, the Indians can hope that Miller gets healthy and regains his usual form. They also don't necessarily need to do better than Cody Allen in the closer's role. With these things considered, they may only be a solid setup man away from stabilizing the ship.
"Solid setup man" might as well be Brad Brach's job description. The right-hander was an All-Star in 2016 and, after a slow start, has not been scored on in his last eight outings.
Throw in his ability to shut down righty batters, and he's a perfect guy for the Indians to rent for the rest of the year.
Colorado Rockies: They'll Score J.T. Realmuto
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Things have been better lately, but the Colorado Rockies are still tracking toward the worst OPS (.718) in their history. Among the biggest culprits for this is the .624 OPS they've gotten out of their catchers.
Sounds like an excuse to reel in J.T. Realmuto.
The Miami Marlins backstop is breaking out with an .869 OPS and six home runs. Per Baseball Prospectus' comprehensive metrics, he's also one of the best defensive catchers in the business.
Realmuto would be a huge offensive improvement over what the Rockies have gotten out of Chris Iannetta and Tony Wolters so far. He'd also be a defensive upgrade over Iannetta, whose defensive value is in the red.
Realmuto, 27, is controlled through 2020, so the Rockies would have to pay a big acquisition cost. But they have the spare prospects (e.g., third baseman Colton Welker) for it, and they're close enough to first place in the NL West to be comfortable with such a splash.
Detroit Tigers: They'll Try and Fail to Trade Nicholas Castellanos
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Although the Detroit Tigers have been better than expected, they're still in the early stages of a rebuild.
A trade of Nicholas Castellanos seems destined to be a part of it. The Tigers were open to dealing him this past winter, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, and he's only getting closer to his 2019 free agency.
Conveniently, Castellanos is in the midst of a career year highlighted by an .893 OPS and 28 extra-base hits. A few contenders could use his bat in right field, including the Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies.
The D-backs have a bigger fish to pursue, however, and the Angels and Phillies have more pressing needs. And in general, any team that's enthused with Castellanos' bat may also be afraid of his defense, which is no better in right field than it was at third base.
Ultimately, now might not be the best time for the Tigers to cash in Castellanos.
Houston Astros: They'll Upgrade at Closer with Kelvin Herrera
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The Houston Astros haven't fallen behind the Seattle Mariners in the American League West race entirely because of Ken Giles.
Still, he's not helping. Perhaps the hard-throwing righty has been a tad more reliable than his 5.21 ERA indicates, but his meltdowns have tended to be pretty bad.
Because their goal is to win a second straight World Series, the Astros have every reason to pursue the best reliever on the market: Kelvin Herrera.
The Kansas City Royals righty has a 0.79 ERA with 19 strikeouts and zero walks through 24 appearances. He's also been there and done that in the postseason, compiling a 1.26 ERA in 22 appearances in 2014 and 2015.
He'd only be a rental, but he's just what the Astros need in the ninth inning.
Kansas City Royals: They'll Hold on to Danny Duffy
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The Royals will not, however, offload Danny Duffy this summer.
That might have been the plan coming into 2018. Kansas City never had much of a shot at contending. And because of Duffy's track record and reasonable contract (he's owed $60 million through 2021), he would be just the guy to swap for prospects ahead of the trade deadline.
Alas, Duffy has thrown things for a loop by embarking on the worst season of his career. He has a 5.81 ERA through 13 starts, seven of which have included him surrendering at least four earned runs.
So, that reasonable contract? It no longer looks reasonable. The Royals may have to eat some of it in order to score prospects in a trade.
If it comes to that, it's easier to imagine them choosing an alternate route: Keep Duffy and hope he rebuilds his trade value ahead of future opportunities to deal.
Los Angeles Angels: They'll Snag Jeurys Familia for Their Bullpen
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It wouldn't hurt the Angels to deal for a hitter who can help Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Andrelton Simmons and Justin Upton carry their offense.
Alternatively, they can remain patient with Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart and Kole Calhoun and address a different need: a reliable closer.
Herrera and Britton will be options, but the Angels could be outbid for the former and might not be comfortable taking a chance on the latter. Instead, they could settle on a happy medium: Jeurys Familia.
Following a 2017 season to forget, the New York Mets righty is reclaiming his place as one of baseball's best closers with free agency just around the corner. He has a 2.25 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 28 innings.
The Angels should be able to rent Familia without surrendering any of their top prospects (i.e., Jo Adell, Kevin Maitan and Jahmai Jones). If they can, they'll have a deep bullpen to match their deep rotation.
Los Angeles Dodgers: They'll Make a Play for Bartolo Colon's Innings
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have scratched and clawed their way to within striking distance of the NL West lead, but they'll have trouble going any further if they don't patch their starting rotation.
Though it has a solid 3.51 ERA, it's presently without Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kenta Maeda. All four should be back at some point, but the sight of them on the DL at the same time should convince the Dodgers they need more depth and reliability.
In other words: Bartolo Colon.
"Big Sexy" isn't the sexiest name on the trade market. But Colon is still generally good for five or six solid innings when he takes the ball, and the Texas Rangers are paying him just $1.8 million.
He's therefore a natural fit for a club that prefers to hold on to its best prospects and that is also trying to hold on to what luxury-tax space it has.
Miami Marlins: They'll Be Stuck with Starlin Castro
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The Marlins' MLB-worst minus-117 run differential is as good a sign as any that their rebuild still needs a lot of work. That'll be their cue for an active trade season.
They're going to have a tough time moving Starlin Castro, however.
Castro is only on the Marlins because his contract was a cost of doing business with the New York Yankees in the Giancarlo Stanton trade. The best-case scenario for the Marlins (and, reportedly, Castro himself) involved Castro establishing enough value to be moved in something more than a salary dump.
That isn't happening. His OPS is down from .792 to .720, and his second base defense is merely average. It's unlikely potential suitors view him as having any value beyond what he's being paid.
This summer's second base market also has superior options in guys like Lowrie and Gennett. These things will conspire to keep Castro in Miami.
Milwaukee Brewers: They'll Go for the Kill by Trading for Chris Archer
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The Milwaukee Brewers have risen to the top of the National League on the strength of an offense that's solid and a defense and a bullpen that are terrific.
Now they must build a stronger rotation. Assuming he recovers from an abdominal strain, a trade for Chris Archer would be a good start.
This is something the Brewers have considered in the past, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic connected them to the Tampa Bay Rays righty in February. He hurt his value with a slow start to 2018, but he started rebuilding it with a 2.91 ERA in nine starts before his injury struck.
Meanwhile, Archer is under control for cheap through 2021.
The Brewers probably can't get Archer without surrendering at least their top prospect, second baseman Keston Hiura. But they have every reason to crank their win-now dial all the way up. Adding Archer to a thin rotation with a pedestrian 4.13 ERA would do the trick.
Minnesota Twins: They Won't Be Compelled to Trade Brian Dozier
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With Byron Buxton, Joe Mauer and Ervin Santana sidelined by injuries, the Minnesota Twins face a tall task to climb into the American League playoff picture.
In all likelihood, they're going to be forced to sell. Since star second baseman Brian Dozier is set for free agency, they'll have no choice but to listen to offers.
There's bound to be interest in him. After all, he's only making $9 million, and his reputation as a well-rounded player precedes him.
Dozier is a notoriously hot and cold hitter, however, and he's yet to put together a sustained hot stretch in 2018. Most troublesome is how he no longer resembles an elite slugger, as both his power and his patience are down.
As long as this goes on, whatever interest there may be in Dozier may not evolve into a frenzy for his services. If so, the Twins can simply hold on to him and try to collect qualifying offer benefits from his free agency.
New York Mets: Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard Will Stay Put
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The Mets are 16-29 since getting out to an 11-1 start. It also seems like half of their Opening Day roster is on the DL. These signs point toward a summer fire sale.
Still, let's pump the brakes on trade speculation involving Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
According to John Harper of the New York Daily News, potential deals involving the two hurlers were hot topics on local sports talk shows in May. And it makes some sense, as they're extremely valuable trade chips who could be dealt for prospects the Mets sorely need.
New York, however, controls deGrom through 2020 and Syndergaard through 2021. It would only make sense for the Mets to deal them if the team's future is so devoid of hope that a total rebuild is necessary.
For all their faults, the Mets are more in need of retooling than rebuilding. It's safe for them to hang on to their stars for at least a couple of more years.
New York Yankees: They'll Pull off a Blockbuster for Michael Fulmer
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The Yankees are a very good team with a very obvious flaw: starting pitching.
The club's non-Luis Severino starters have combined for a 4.77 ERA. A substantial fix is in order and, because of the strength of the Yankees farm system, also very much possible.
For this, the popular theory is they'll trade for Cole Hamels. But why would they trade for him when they could have Michael Fulmer instead?
According to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Yankees made a push for the Tigers righty in the offseason. His value has taken a hit since then, but he still has a live arm, is just 25 and is controlled through 2022.
Hamels, 34, can only help the Yankees now. If they deal for Fulmer instead, they'll have what they need to keep up with the Red Sox and Astros both now and for years to come.
Oakland Athletics: Jed Lowrie Goes; Everyone Else Stays
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The Athletics are ticketed to occupy an interesting niche on the summer trade market: They're not bad enough to blow it up yet not good enough to buy and are generally obligated to listen on their best trade chips.
Hence why Lowrie is likely to be on the move. He's a fine player, but he's not a big part of Oakland's future because of his age (34) and contract status (free agent-to-be). It would be foolish for the A's to not trade him while the trading's good.
The hard part is identifying Oakland players who are in similar standing.
There really aren't any. Lowrie is the only standout among their pending free agents, and the rest of their roster is comprised mostly of cost-controlled youngsters with upside. In other words: guys they need to keep.
So apart from a Lowrie trade, expect Oakland's deadline to be quiet.
Philadelphia Phillies: They'll Reunite with Cole Hamels
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More so than the Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies make sense for Hamels.
Beyond the familiarity the two sides have with each other, there's the reality the Phillies could use an impact starter behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. They're also in a much better position to take on the lefty's remaining money ($22.5 million salary and $6 million buyout).
The question is whether the Rangers would be willing to do a straight salary dump with the Phillies. They're in a position to rebuild, so they may insist on getting prospects back for Hamels.
A possible compromise involves Philadelphia getting more than just Hamels. If they could also have, say, Keone Kela for their bullpen, they may be just fine with paying an exorbitant asking price.
In any event, the Phillies have come too far in the NL East race to back away from being bold.
Pittsburgh Pirates: They'll Stand Pat
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The Pirates look like they'll be the A's of the National League during the summer trade season: neither in it nor out of it, with an obligation to listen to whatever offers come through.
The difference is the Pirates may not be compelled to make any major moves.
Their only pending free agents are Jordy Mercer and Sean Rodriguez, neither of whom figures to draw a crowd on the trade market. They otherwise have a handful of players (Josh Harrison, David Freese and Jung Ho Kang) with reasonable options for 2019.
Rather than strip themselves of the latter parts, the Pirates can hold on to them and angle for a better season in 2019. That would be the right idea, as what's a strong roster should only get stronger as assorted youngsters (especially Austin Meadows) continue to gain valuable experience.
Pittsburgh should be in store for a quiet trade deadline.
San Diego Padres: They'll Hold on to Brad Hand
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After all the dealing they've done in recent years, the San Diego Padres are now largely devoid of shiny trade chips.
Save for Brad Hand. And they're sure to get plenty of calls on him, as who wouldn't be interested in an All-Star lefty with an ever-escalating strikeout rate?
There is a question, however, of whether the Padres will have any interest in trading Hand. They signed him to a club-friendly contract that runs through 2021. Maybe they did that to boost his trade value, but a more simple explanation is that they want to keep him for a while.
In the event the Padres are open to dealing Hand, the question would then become whether anyone will relent to their asking price. San Diego would surely demand at least an Andrew Miller-like package, which is as big an ask as asks get.
All told, the signs don't point to an inevitable deal.
San Francisco Giants: They'll Lengthen Their Starting Rotation with Dan Straily
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It seems like nothing has gone right for the San Francisco Giants, yet they are 30-30 and have Madison Bumgarner back in their starting rotation.
They can't afford to get cocky, however. Least of all with a rotation that still looks like a major weakness even with Bumgarner back in the fold.
Of all the trade chips the Giants can pursue, Dan Straily fits them like a glove. He's been one of the more reliable innings-eaters in MLB since 2016, and the Giants have the perfect ballpark to lessen his problem with the home run ball.
Other suitors may be so wary of Straily's gopheritis that he might be had for a discounted price despite being under club control through 2020. That would be just fine for the Giants, who are short on impact prospects. Straily's $3.375 million salary also wouldn't push them much further over the luxury-tax threshold.
Seattle Mariners: They'll Add Flexibility with Francisco Liriano
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It was easy to write the Seattle Mariners off as doomed when Robinson Cano was suspended. But all they've done since then is rise into first place in the AL West.
To boot, trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto has already added Alex Colome to the team's bullpen and Denard Span to the outfield. In the meantime, a rotation that looked thin at the outset of the season is one of the hottest in MLB.
What does a team like this need? Maybe not much more than a veteran swingman such as Francisco Liriano.
The 34-year-old lefty has enjoyed a bit of a renaissance with a 3.90 ERA in 10 starts for the Tigers. He's still not much of an innings-eater, though, so any contender with half a brain would do well to use him in a role in which he could be a spot starter, long reliever or lefty specialist.
As much as anyone, the Mariners could use a pitcher like that.
St. Louis Cardinals: They'll Make a Move for Mike Moustakas
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The St. Louis Cardinals could prioritize any number of needs ahead of the trade deadline. An extra starter. Bullpen depth. Offensive firepower. You name it.
Best guess: They'll go for a bat.
Bullpen help would seem to be a more pressing need, but Jordan Hicks and Bud Norris have made the Cardinals pen solid where it counts.
Their offense, meanwhile, has had trouble getting going in large part because nobody has been consistent. Third base is a natural place to seek a fix for that, as adding someone solid there would free Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko to platoon at first base and second base, respectively.
This is their excuse to call the Royals about Mike Moustakas. With an .830 OPS and 12 homers, the 29-year-old is on pace to replicate his breakout 2017 season. He'd also come much cheaper than, say, Machado or Josh Donaldson.
Tampa Bay Rays: Only Kevin Kiermaier Will Be Safe
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The Rays' being a sneaky AL wild-card contender didn't stop them from trading Colome or Span. It's not going to stop them from pursuing other trades either.
To that end, they have plenty of opportunities to pursue in coming weeks. Their pending free agents include Wilson Ramos, Carlos Gomez, Sergio Romo, Adeiny Hechavarria and Nathan Eovaldi. And if Archer can go, it figures any of their controllable players could also go.
Except for Kevin Kiermaier.
For one thing, he's signed to a club-friendly contract that runs through 2023. For another, his recovery from a thumb injury may not be over until the eve of the trade deadline.
Between those two things, it's a safe guess he's not in danger of going anywhere this summer. It's not much of a prediction, of course, but this is what the Rays hath wrought.
Texas Rangers: They'll Be Forced to Keep Many of Their Trade Chips
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The Rangers are going to be open for business this summer, and it's more than likely they'll find homes for Hamels and Colon.
Otherwise, trade season might not be too kind to the Rangers.
They can try to market Shin-Soo Choo, but his age (35) and contract ($62 million through 2020) will keep suitors at bay. Adrian Beltre is another trade chip, but he's 39 and plays a position (third base) without a ton of demand. Between his injury status and contract situation, Elvis Andrus may not draw a ton of interest either.
The Rangers don't have much to offer beyond those guys. Maybe Doug Fister, but he's basically an older, more expensive Tyson Ross. Maybe Mike Minor, but he hasn't helped his contract optics by flopping in his return to starting.
So while it shouldn't be a silent deadline for the Rangers, it may not be a loud one either.
Toronto Blue Jays: They Won't Blow It Up
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The Toronto Blue Jays got to five games over .500 on May 3. Their putrid 8-20 record since has given rise to suspicions they'll blow up their roster in the coming weeks.
They have excuses to try to hang in there, however.
The Blue Jays can hope to get a boost from the arrival of megaprospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., which, as long as his injured leg allows it, should come any day now. Fellow megaprospect Bo Bichette is also making a case for a promotion.
Toronto should also get Donaldson and Marcus Stroman back from injury sometime in June. Once all these pieces are together, the team will have the foundation for a season-saving hot streak.
Is it more likely the Blue Jays will continue to struggle and decide to blow it up? Frankly, yes. But it's worth going out on a limb for the opposite.
Washington Nationals: They'll Put Scooter Gennett in Daniel Murphy's Place
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Things have been going dandy for the Washington Nationals on the field, where they're 22-9 over their last 31 games.
In their ongoing battle with the injury bug? Less so. And the latest news on a particularly important injured player wasn't good. According to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, star second baseman Daniel Murphy has looked "gimpy" in the minors as he seeks to return from major knee surgery.
Rather than count on Murphy to hold down second base upon his return, the Nationals should seek an impact replacement.
That could be Lowrie or Dozier, but a step up from them is Gennett. He's building on his 2017 breakout with a .948 OPS and 12 homers this season, and he's under club control through 2019.
The Nats might have to sacrifice one of their top prospects (e.g., shortstop Carter Kieboom) to land Gennett. However, that's a price they should be willing to pay as they seek that elusive World Series title.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
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