Predicting the Future for This Year's Rookie Quarterbacks
No one knows what the future holds for this year's crop of rookie quarterbacks.
Except me, of course.
I don't brag about this much, but I can predict the future with 100 percent accuracy. As such, Bleacher Report has asked me to reveal everything that will happen to all of the quarterbacks drafted this past weekend, from their rookie-camp battles through the ends of their careers.
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So if eerily precise visions of the future scare you, do not read on. And if you read something you don't like, don't blame the messenger: I am but a lowly chronicler of these soon-to-be events, not the cause of them.
Oh, and Jets fans: We saved the best for last (wink).
Baker Mayfield, Browns
The crystal ball says: Mayfield's early career becomes bogged down by petty controversies. Hue Jackson declares Tyrod Taylor the starter entering camp and drops subtle hints in press conferences about Mayfield's "readiness" and "preparation," which some local media types seize upon as evidence of an impending Manziel 2.0-level Brownsocalypse.
When the Browns are 1-9 at the bye (Jackson does not let Taylor leave the pocket at all and only uses Duke Johnson on 30 percent of offensive snaps, though Jarvis Landry provides some return on the team's investment by averaging 12 catches a week—for 62 yards), general manager John Dorsey decides that enough is enough. After a brief, regrettable incident involving a barricade of office furniture, Jackson is removed from team headquarters and replaced by offensive coordinator Todd Haley.
The Haley-Mayfield chemistry proves immediately electric—and also a little intense, like the first live concert by some punk-metal supergroup. The Browns become the NFL's latest bad boys, an irresistible-to-watch danger to themselves and others. It's the greatest era of Browns football since the Bernie Kosar days, but it comes to an end after Mayfield moons the Steelers sideline before a playoff loss, Haley sets fire to his own office in a postgame tantrum and owner Jimmy Haslam decides to start over by doing what he's always wanted to do: hire Chip Kelly.
Until then: Mayfield's biggest early-career impediments will be Taylor, Jackson's skullduggery and general Browns pessimism/skepticism, not any of his own flaws. Everything should work out OK in the end. Really.
Josh Allen, Bills
The crystal ball says: Allen wins the Bills starting job early in camp when the wind gust from one of his throws knocks AJ McCarron over during warm-ups.
Allen starts all 16 games as a rookie and completes 49.2 percent of his passes, but the Bills go 9-7 because: A) their defense is really good; B) Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones each chase down six or seven 60-yard touchdowns during the season; and C) Allen's interception rate is low, because no defender can pick off a pass that sails 15 yards out of bounds.
Sean McDermott then decides that low-percentage passing is a winning formula, so instead of trying to figure out why Allen's targeting computer takes so long to reboot, the Bills build an even tougher defense and assemble a receiving corps out of speedy retrieval specialists. The Bills gradually turn into Ravens North, though they never achieve a hot streak that lands them in the Super Bowl. Allen is still a starter in 2024, proving all of his current doubters wrong (sort of).
Until then: Of all the top rookie quarterbacks, Allen most needed a strong supporting cast, a creative coaching staff and a Josh McCown-caliber mentor/shock-absorber. He has none of those things. It's gonna be a rough season.
Josh Rosen, Cardinals
The crystal ball says: Cardinals head coach Steve Wilks declares an open competition for the starting job among Rosen, Sam Bradford and (why not?) Mike Glennon. Upon hearing the news, Bradford disappears into the desert for a day or two to totally not sulk about it. (See: Philadelphia, 2016). All is forgiven when he returns, and he wins the job based on his mastery of the seven-on-seven drill.
Bradford then suffers a cataclysmic injury during the coin toss before the third preseason game. Glennon is declared the Week 1 starter but throws two pick-sixes in the first quarter. Rosen finally takes over as the starter after that, works through his rookie lumps and emerges as a Rookie of the Year candidate. His personality and politics cause no off-field controversies, because Arizona might as well be Saskatoon when it comes to media attention, and because that was all just NFL insider sewing-circle nonsense anyway.
Rosen leads the Cardinals to the playoffs in 2019. Bradford and Glennon move on to other teams, where they continue to earn more money than Rosen for several years. Ultimately, Rosen leads the Cardinals to their first Super Bowl title some time before Larry Fitzgerald retires in 2029.
Until then: This is a soft landing spot for Rosen, who should leap over Bradford the way Carson Wentz did and benefit from both veteran weapons and a stable, drama-resistant organization.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
The crystal ball says: In an effort to get Jackson on the field while he learns the basics of NFL footwork, Ravens assistant coaches Marty Mornhinweg and Greg Roman design Wildcat-like packages similar to the ones they used for Colin Kaepernick and Michael Vick in past coaching gigs. The results: much-needed experience for Jackson, a big play or two that result in Ravens wins and approximately 57,989 think pieces about the racial semiotics of quarterback "packages," mostly written by people who don't watch NFL games.
Jackson replaces Joe Flacco for good after the Week 10 bye and leads the Ravens to a 5-2 late-season record with a mix of dazzling runs and some still-emerging pocket-passing chops. The Ravens then spend the 2019 offseason stressing that Jackson will be a pocket passer, shredding all of the designed runs and rollouts in their playbook, even though they obviously work.
Jackson goes on to have a fine career, but his pocket skills are always overly criticized and the success the Ravens offense has when he sometimes runs is viewed as some kind of temporary outlier or secret shame. (Come to think of it, there may have been a point to some of those think pieces.)
Until then: Jackson can probably out-perform Flacco right away thanks to the dual-threat element of his game, but the Ravens will be better off giving him time to fine-tune his passing mechanics. If anyone in the Ravens organization needs a reminder of how narratives, expectations and preconceptions can swallow even the most promising career, they can just stop by Robert Griffin III's locker.
Mason Rudolph, Steelers
The crystal ball says: Rudolph gets his chance midway through this season, after Ben Roethlisberger tears both ACLs in Week 6 against the Bengals. Rudolph throws two touchdown passes and an interception in a Week 8 win over the Browns, but Big Ben miraculously returns to face the Ravens in Week 9 with bungee cords sewn into his knees.
Rudolph gets another start in 2019 when Roethlisberger needs hip-replacement surgery in November, but Roethlisberger returns to lead the Steelers to the playoffs while riding a Segway.
This continues through 2023, when NFL evaluators forget that Rudolph was ever a prospect in the first place. Rudolph and Landry Jones eventually open a microbrewery together in Latrobe, Pennsylvania.
Until then: Rudolph has short-term value if Roethlisberger suffers his customary mid-year catastrophe. A bullpen victory or two can move playoff games from Foxboro or Jacksonville back to Pittsburgh.
Kyle Lauletta, Giants
The crystal ball says: Lauletta spends the whole 2018 season watching as semi-rejuvenated Eli Manning hands off to Saquon Barkley and throws 30 touchdowns (24 of them short passes that Barkley or Odell Beckham Jr. turn into touchdowns) with "just" 16 interceptions.
By 2019, fans begin chanting "We want Kyle!" after every Manning incompletion. But every time Pat Shurmur, Dave Gettleman or John Mara tries to have "the talk," Eli flashes the big puppy dog eyes.
Finally, the Giants trade Lauletta to the Colts weeks after it's announced that Andrew Luck is having Luke Skywalker surgery on his throwing arm. Lauletta goes Full Garoppolo in Indianapolis. The Giants then try to win Eli one more Super Bowl by improving on defense, so they rehire Steve Spagnuolo.
Until then: Lauletta will prove steady and dependable when he gets a chance, which won't be this year.
Before getting to the one Jets fans are clamoring for, some quick-hit crystal-ball views of the stragglers:
Mike White, Cowboys: Cowboys fans scream for White during a Dak Prescott slump. White struggles in relief because the Cowboys receivers are terrible, so Prescott reclaims the job after one start. This process repeats itself for six years until Tony Romo interrupts Jason Witten's Hall of Fame introduction speech to ask Jerry Jones to stop calling both of them.
Luke Falk, Titans: Falk gets three separate starting opportunities and is a primary backup for six different teams during a 14-year NFL career, going from "tall, big-armed prospect" to "capable journeyman" without ever accomplishing anything.
Tanner Lee, Jaguars: A mysterious, masked XFL quarterback whose jersey reads "He Hate Lee" becomes the talk of the sports world for a few minutes in 2020.
Alex McGough, Seahawks: McGough becomes the answer to the trivia question "Who was Russell Wilson's backup the year the Seahawks finally collapsed because they drafted punters instead of offensive linemen?"
Danny Etling, Patriots: Etling spends two seasons at the TB12 compound mastering the perfect kale-avocado smoothie. The Patriots then trade him to the Josh McDaniels-coached Dolphins for a second-round pick.
Logan Woodside, Bengals: The future looks much like McCarron's past.
And finally...
Sam Darnold, Jets
The crystal ball says: Darnold wins the starting job after the third preseason game, with Josh McCown slipping graciously into a mentor role. The Jets go around .500 in 2018 as Darnold figures things out, and then they upgrade his receiving corps and line. The Darnold Jets become perennial playoff contenders. After years of success and stability, fans begin to forget that the Jets spent a near eternity as one of the laughingstocks of the American sports scene.
Until then: You expected some big punch line when we saved Darnold for the end, didn't you? But the Jets got this one right, which only goes to show you that no matter how scary the future might be, it has nothing on the present.
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @MikeTanier.
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