2018 NFL Draft: Odds and Predictions for This Year's Star Prospects
Months of deciphering the minute differences between prospects comes to an end Thursday, when the latest crop of college football prospects officially enter the NFL.
The collection of quarterbacks stole the spotlight from the second the draft process began, and there is a good chance the Cleveland Browns selects one of them with the No. 1 overall pick.
USC's Sam Darnold emerged as the favorite to head to Cleveland in recent weeks, while Wyoming's Josh Allen, UCLA's Josh Rosen and Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield from Oklahoma are also in the mix.
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While they've been overlooked by some, the non-quarterbacks in the draft pool, including Penn State running back Saquon Barkley and Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, are expected to be difference-makers in their respective rookie seasons.
All that's left to figure out is where each marquee prospect lands during Thursday's first round, but that may be the most complicated part of the process given what's at stake for the franchises in the top 10.
Odds for No. 1 Pick
Sam Darnold, QB, USC (-240; bet $240 to win $100)
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming (+160; bet $100 to win $160)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (+550)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (+1,000)
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (+1,800)
Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State (+4,500)
Predictions for Star Prospects
Sam Darnold
Darnold shouln't drop far in the first round even if the Browns don't select him with the top pick.
If he doesn't land in Cleveland, the New York Giants or New York Jets should select the USC quarterback with the No. 2 or No. 3 pick.
The Browns don't have to pick a quarterback at No. 1 since they acquired Tyrod Taylor from the Buffalo Bills in the offseason.
However, they are going to be under pressure to take a franchise-changing quarterback with either the first or fourth pick.
Although there is plenty of speculation as to what the Browns will do with the first-overall selection, it looks like general manager John Dorsey is keeping his cards close to his chest.
Even if the Browns surprise us all and don't take a quarterback, it shouldn't affect Darnold, who will be a coveted prospect for one of the New York teams.
The ideal landing spot for Darnold would be the Browns or Giants so he could learn from an established quarterback while waiting to take the field.
If he ends up dropping to the Jets or Denver Broncos, there will be more pressure to start and succeed in Week 1 based off the recent play at the position for both franchises.
Prediction: No. 1 overall
Saquon Barkley
No one is questioning the skill set of Barkley, but he might not go as high as he should Thursday.
With the need for quarterbacks once again at the forefront of the draft process, the actions of the teams in the top five will force the Penn State running back to fall further than some expect.
The Browns, Giants, Jets and Broncos all need signal callers, and there's a chance the Browns trade the No. 4 pick in exchange for a nice package that includes a selection later in the first round.
Of course, the ideal situation in the minds of some Browns fans would be to select Darnold and Barkley to add to an offense that could do some real damage in the AFC North after the acquisition of Jarvis Landry.
If the Giants trust Eli Manning enough and opt to go after a quarterback to develop later in the draft, Barkley would be the perfect complement to the experienced play caller.
If Barkley doesn't end up with the Browns or Giants, there are two intriguing landing spots for him in the bottom half of the top 10.
Although Indianapolis has needs at other positions, it could take Barkley at No. 6 to add explosiveness on the offense for the return of Andrew Luck.
Barkley shouldn't fall further than No. 7, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would love to add a player like him to an offense that includes Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Cameron Brate.
Prediction: No. 7 overall
Baker Mayfield
The mad dash for quarterbacks will be on after the first pick, with the Jets having one of the best chances to improve their franchise.
There may be concerns about Mayfield playing in a massive market like New York City, but he proved throughout his final season at Oklahoma he's more than capable of thriving under pressure in big games.
If the Jets shy away from Mayfield and go with a more conservative pick in the form of Allen or Rosen, the door is open for a team like Buffalo or Arizona to trade up to No. 4 to take Mayfield before anyone else can swoop in.
Of course, there could be a surprise team that vaults into the top five to take a player it must have, but the two likely candidates based off needs are the Bills and Cardinals.
In Mayfield's worst-case scenario, he becomes the last of the four high-profile quarterbacks off the board and drops out of the top 10 as franchises fill other needs.
If Denver goes in a different direction at No. 5, a wide range of possibilities are open with the Bills and Cardinals still trying to trade up, as well as a few other teams who could put together more reasonable packages to move up.
Don't be surprised if the quarterback market heats up so much that we see teams like Miami, New Orleans and maybe even New England make a run at a signal caller they believe they can develop in the coming years.
With all that being said, Mayfield is too good of a prospect to pass up in the top five, even with the off-field issues he had at Oklahoma.
Prediction: No. 5 overall
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
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