Michigan Wolverines vs. Villanova Wildcats Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

It's been a wild NCAA men's tournament, but it appears the cream has risen to the top, as Villanova meets Michigan in the championship game Monday night at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The Wildcats are favored on the betting odds, but where does the smart money go?

March Madness point spread: The Wildcats opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total is at 146, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 73.7-68.9, Wildcats (March Madness picks on every game)

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Why Michigan can cover the spread

The Wolverines are back in the NCAA tournament championship game for the second time under coach John Beilein after rallying to beat Loyola-Chicago on Saturday 69-57. Michigan trailed most of that game and by 10 with 14:10 left. But the Wolverines applied the gas and finished the game with a 38-16 spurt, ending the Ramblers' admirable tournament run and covering a five-point spread.

On the night, Michigan only shot 42.4 percent from the floor, thanks mainly to a cold first half. But it held Loyola to 43.1 percent shooting, outrebounded the Ramblers 36-32 and won the turnover battle 17-11. Michigan has now held each of its last 15 opponents under 50 percent field-goal shooting.

The Wolverines are also now 11-4 straight up and 11-3-1 against the spread this season versus teams that made the Big Dance.

Why Villanova can cover the spread

The Wildcats explode on occasion, and they did it Saturday night in their 95-79 romp over Kansas. Villanova hit eight of its first 12 shots on its way to a 22-4 lead, held a 47-32 advantage at halftime and later pushed that lead to 22 on its way to an easy cover of a five-point spread.

On the night, the Wildcats shot 55.4 percent from the floor and set a new Final Four record by hitting 18 three-pointers in 40 attempts. Six different Villanova players scored at least 10 points, and seven players hit at least one trifecta.

Also, after holding Kansas to 45.2 percent shooting, the Wildcats have now limited each of their last 14 opponents to under 50.0 percent field goal shooting. Villanova is also now 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS against teams that made the Big Dance this season.

Smart betting pick

This should be a fun one to watch. The Wildcats can throw it in the hole like few others before them, but Michigan can grind with the best. Ultimately, a blowout seems unlikely, and six or seven points might come in handy. Also, the Wolverines are 7-2 ATS as underdogs this season. Smart money here wagers Michigan.

March Madness betting trends

Villanova is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.

Villanova is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against the Big Ten.

Michigan is 4-27 SU in its last 31 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or more.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.