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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Villanova Wildcats: Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistMarch 24, 2018

BOSTON, MA - MARCH 23:  Mikal Bridges #25 of the Villanova Wildcats celebrates with teammates at the bench during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament East Regional at TD Garden on March 23, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one win away from their first-ever Final Four. Unfortunately, they'll have to get by a talented Villanova team in the East regional final Sunday afternoon in Boston. Where might the betting value lie in this contest?

March Madness point spread: The Wildcats opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total is at 143.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 77.4-67.6, Wildcats (March Madness picks on every game).

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

         

Why Texas Tech can cover the spread

The Red Raiders advanced to a regional final for the first time ever by beating Purdue on Friday night 78-65. Texas Tech scored the last 10 points of the first half to take a 30-25 lead into the locker room, and used a late 11-0 run to put the game away, winning outright as a two-point underdog.

On the night the Red Raiders shot 48 percent from the floor, hit 17 of 18 free throws and won the turnover battle 17-10.

Texas Tech opened this NCAA tournament with a 70-60 victory over Stephen F. Austin, then knocked off Florida 69-66. So they've held each of their last four opponents to 66 points or fewer. On the season the Red Raiders are now 13-6 against teams that made the Big Dance.

        

Why Villanova can cover the spread

The Wildcats are one win away from another Final Four, after outlasting West Virginia on Friday night 90-78. Villanova hit its first six shots from the field but only led by a bucket at the half, 44-42. The Wildcats then fell down by six with 11 minutes to go but went on an 11-0 run to regain control, and ultimately covered as five-point favorites.

On the night, Villanova shot 50 percent from the floor, made 13 of 24 from three-point land and 23 of 27 from the line. So in this NCAA tournament, the Wildcats are now 44 for 92 (48 percent) on three-pointers.

Villanova also held the Mountaineers to just 39 percent field-goal shooting, the 12th game in a row the Wildcats have held their opponent under 50 percent.

Villanova opened this Dance with an 87-61 victory over Radford, covering a 22-point spread, then beat Alabama 81-58, covering an 11-point line. The Wildcats are now 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

        

Smart betting pick

Villanova can throw it in the hole like few teams in college ball, but Texas Tech plays some pretty good defense. If the Raiders can control the pace, get hands in the faces of Wildcats shooters and win the battle on the glass they'll cover this spread.

       

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone over in 14 of Villanova's last 18 games.

Villanova is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 6.5 points or more.

Texas Tech is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games.

      

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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