Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils Odds, Analysis, March Madness Betting Pick

Syracuse's zone defense is 40-plus years in the making, while Duke's adoption of the zone is still in its infancy. But both teams have been getting great results as of late heading into their all-ACC Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament showdown Friday night in Omaha. Which side holds the betting value here?

March Madness point spread: The Blue Devils opened as 11.5-point favorites; the total is at 133.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 73.3-62.1, Blue Devils (March Madness picks on every game)

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Why Syracuse can cover the spread

The Orange advanced to this Sweet 16 by winning three games already in this tournament. First they edged Arizona State in a First Four bout 60-56, then they tipped TCU 57-52, and most recently they nipped highly regarded Michigan State 55-53.

Syracuse beat the Sun Devils outright as two-point dogs, the Frogs as five-point dogs and the Spartans as 10-point dogs.

The Orange trailed Michigan State almost all day but finally took a lead for good at 49-48 with four minutes to go. In the end, Syracuse used the foul-first method to keep the Spartans from even attempting a game-tying three-pointer, and it worked perfectly.

On the day, the Orange only shot 35.7 percent from the field but hit 24 of 31 free throws and held Michigan State to a miserable 25.8 percent FG shooting, forcing the Spartans to miss their last 13 shots.

Two days prior, Syracuse held TCU to just under 40 percent FG shooting, and two days before that they held Arizona State to 40 percent shooting. So the Orange have limited each of their last 10 opponents to under 50 percent FG shooting, going 7-3 ATS over that stretch.

Why Duke can cover the spread

The Blue Devils are back in the Sweet 16 following their 89-67 victory over Iona in the first round and their 87-62 rout of Rhode Island in the second round. Duke covered a 20-point spread against the Gaels and a nine-point spread against the Rams.

The Blue Devils used a 23-5 run midway through the first half against Rhode Island to take a 17-point lead into halftime. Duke later led by 29 in a totally dominating performance against what was a hot Rams team.

On the afternoon, the Blue Devils shot 56.9 percent from the field, made 10 of 21 from three-point land and held URI to just 39.7 percent FG shooting. Two days prior, Duke shot 54 percent from the floor while holding Iona to 43 percent shooting.

The Blue Devils are now 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

Smart betting pick

Duke beat Syracuse just one month ago 60-44 and covered a 13-point spread. However, that was only a seven-point game with 10 minutes to go. The Orange are better now than they were then, playing tough and with great confidence. Syracuse might not win this game, but the smart money takes the points.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of Duke's last 10 games.

Duke is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.

Duke is 53-5 SU in its last 58 games as a double-digit favorite.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.