Houston Cougars vs. Michigan Wolverines Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Coming off a long layoff after winning the Big Ten tournament, Michigan appeared rusty in its NCAA tournament opener Thursday.

The Wolverines better not carry that rust with them into Saturday night's round-of-32 game against Houston in Wichita, Kansas.

March Madness point spread: The Wolverines opened as five-point favorites; the total is at 134, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 70.2-69.0, Wolverines (March Madness picks on every game)

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Why Houston can cover the spread

The Cougars opened their first NCAA tournament since 2010 with a hard-fought 67-65 victory over San Diego State on Thursday. Houston led by 13 early in the second half, allowed the Aztecs to rally and tie the score with a minute to go, then won it on a driving bucket by guard Rob Gray with one second left.

On the night, the Cougars only shot 37.3 percent from the field, but they hit 18 of 24 from the line, held San Diego State to 37 percent FG shooting and only committed seven turnovers to 12 for the Aztecs. Over its last four games, Houston has limited opponents to just 38 percent FG shooting.

The Cougars are now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven games, with the only loss during that span a one-point decision against Cincinnati in the championship game of the AAC tournament. They're also 6-3 both SU and ATS this season against teams that made the Big Dance.

Why Michigan can cover the spread

The Wolverines opened their NCAA tournament with a 61-47 victory over Montana on Thursday.

Michigan actually fell down to the Grizzlies 10-0 four minutes into the game but battled back to take a 31-28 lead into halftime. The Wolverines then held Montana to just 19 points in the second half on their way to the victory and the cover as 10-point favorites.

Michigan ended up shooting 44.7 percent from the floor, while limiting the Grizzlies to just 32.1 percent field-goal shooting. So the Wolverines have now held each of their last 11 opponents to under 50 percent FG shooting, four of them under 40 percent.

Michigan now owns a 10-game winning streak, going 9-1 ATS in the process. The Wolverines are also 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

Smart betting pick

This game looks like it could come down to one possession, and in situations like this, it's better to have a few points in your pocket. Smart money here hangs with Houston.

March Madness betting trends

Michigan is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games.

The total has gone over in five of Michigan's last six games.

Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after an ATS loss.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.