Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Villanova Wildcats Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

A No. 1 seed from the Big East meets a sub-.500 team from the SEC when Villanova goes against Alabama in an NCAA tournament round-of-32 game Saturday afternoon in Pittsburgh. The Wildcats covered a big number on the betting line in their tournament opener; can they cover another one here?

March Madness point spread: The Wildcats opened as 10.5-point favorites; the total is at 148, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 84.5-63.9, Wildcats (March Madness picks on every game)

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Why Alabama can cover the spread

The Tide reached Saturday's action with an 86-83 victory over Virginia Tech on Thursday. That game was close throughout, with neither team ever leading by more than seven points. But Alabama finally took the lead for good with seven minutes to go and edged away in the final moments for the outright victory as a three-point dog.

On the night, the Tide shot a hot 60 percent from the floor, hit eight of 18 shots from three-point land and won the battle on the boards by a 26-22 margin. Alabama has now shot at least 50 percent from the floor three of its last four games and outrebounded its last three opponents.

Not coincidentally, the Tide are 3-1 SU over their last four games, with wins over three NCAA tournament qualifiers, and 4-1 ATS over their last five games.

Why Villanova can cover the spread

The Wildcats advanced to Saturday by routing Radford on Thursday 87-61. Villanova made 13 of its first 16 shots, led by 21 at the half and pushed that to 33 midway through the second half, then rested starters from there. They also hung on for the cover as 23-point favorites.

On the night, the Wildcats shot 60 percent from the floor, going 14-of-27 from three-point land along the way. So Villanova has now shot at least 50 percent from the floor in five of its last nine games. It's also held each of its last 10 opponents to under 50 percent shooting, and outrebounded each of its last seven foes.

The Wildcats are now 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

Smart betting pick

Alabama is hot with freshman Collin Sexton leading the way, but Villanova is just a class above, talented and battle-tested. Plus, the Wildcats shoot 77 percent from the line, which comes in handy when trying to cover a spread down the stretch. The smart money here gives the points.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone over in 13 of Villanova's last 16 games.

Villanova is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

The total has gone under in eight of Alabama's last 11 games on a Saturday.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.