Florida State Seminoles vs. Missouri Tigers Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Eighth place in the ACC meets fourth place in the SEC when Florida State meets Missouri in an NCAA tournament opening-round game Friday night in Nashville. The spread on this one indicates a good matchup, but which team is the better bet?

March Madness point spread: The Tigers opened as one-point favorites; the total is at 147.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 75.5-75.4, Seminoles (March Madness picks on every game)

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Why Florida State can cover the spread

The Seminoles started 11-1 this season, with a rivalry win over Florida. Florida State then proceeded to go 9-9 in the ACC, a conference that sent nine teams to this NCAA tournament. The Seminoles beat the likes of North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Miami and Clemson, and lost close games to Duke, Miami and Virginia. FSU then fell to Louisville in its first game of the ACC tournament but nonetheless received an invitation to the Big Dance for the second straight season.

On the year the Seminoles are 6-5 SU and 5-5-1 ATS against teams that made the NCAA tournament. Florida State's leading scorer, guard Terance Mann, is only averaging 13 points per game. But part of that is because the Seminoles are so deep, with 10 guys averaging at least 10 floor minutes per contest.

Why Missouri can cover the spread

The Tigers started 10-2 this season, then muddled through a 3-6 stretch with losses to NCAA qualifiers Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Auburn. But Missouri then won five straight, beating Alabama, Kentucky and A&M in the process, and later carded consecutive victories to finish 10-8 in SEC play. The Tigers then lost their SEC tournament opener to Georgia (by a bucket) but nonetheless made the Dance for the first time since 2013.

On the season Missouri is 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS against teams that made the tournament. Also, the Tigers just welcomed back highly-regarded talent Michael Porter Jr., who had missed almost the entire season with a back injury.

Smart betting pick

Porter's back, but Missouri will be without forward Jordan Barnett (14 points, six rebounds per game), who's suspended for this one. Still, while Florida State owns an edge on offense, the Tigers are playing the better defense, holding opponents to 40 percent field-goal shooting on the season. The smart money here likes Missouri.

March Madness betting trends

Missouri is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against the ACC.

The total has gone over in five of Florida State's last seven games.

Florida State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after an ATS loss.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.