Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Wichita State Shockers: Odds, March Madness Pick

Postseason experience could be a factor when NCAA tournament regular Wichita State meets tourney greenhorn Marshall in a first-round bout Friday afternoon in San Diego. The Shockers are favored on the betting line, but is that number too high?

March Madness point spread: The Shockers opened as 12-point favorites; the total is at 166.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 78.8-77.6, Shockers (March Madness picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news. As well, download your printable March Madness bracket at OddsShark.

Why Marshall can cover the spread

The Herd started 4-3 this season, then won 10 of their next 13 games. And one of the losses during that span was a four-point decision against Xavier, which is a No. 1 seed for this NCAA tournament. Marshall later won seven of its last nine games to finish 12-6 in Conference USA play, then won three games in three days, including a 67-66 upset of Western Kentucky in the title contest, to win the CUSA tournament. So the Thunder Herd is at the Big Dance for the first time since 1987.

Stretching back into early February Marshall is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS over its last 12 games. The Herd can throw the ball in the hole at a pretty good rate; they've hit the 90-point mark 11 times this season, and four times they've scored more than 100. Underdogs who can score like that are always a threat for a back-door cover.

Why Wichita State can cover the spread

The Shockers started 15-2 this season, with wins over NCAA tournament qualifiers Charleston, South Dakota State and Houston, the losses coming against Notre Dame and Oklahoma, both of whom were hot at the time. Wichita State then stumbled through a 2-3 stretch but won seven of its last eight to finish 14-4 in its first season of AAC play. The Shockers then won one game in the AAC tournament before falling to Houston in the semifinals 77-74.

Nonetheless, with its at-large bid Wichita State is at the Big Dance for the seventh season in a row.

The Shockers can also throw it in the hole at a good rate; they've hit the 90-point mark 10 times this season, the 100-point mark twice. And favorites that can score like that are capable of covering double digits.

Smart betting pick

Wichita State should win this game because it plays better defense and does a much better job on the boards. But Marshall can score enough to keep things close. Smart money here takes the points with the Herd.

March Madness betting trends

Wichita State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games.

Wichita State is 47-0 SU in its last 47 games as a double-digit favorite.

The total has gone over in five of Marshall's last seven games.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.