Texas Longhorns vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: Odds, Analysis, March Madness Betting Pick

First place in the Mountain West meets sixth place in the Big 12 when the Nevada Wolf Pack take on the Texas Longhorns in an NCAA tournament first-round bout Friday afternoon in Nashville. Where might the betting value lie in this matchup?

March Madness point spread: The Wolf Pack opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total is at 143.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 77.8-73.9, Wolf Pack (March Madness picks on every game).

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Why Texas can cover the spread

The Longhorns started 9-3 this season, with wins over NCAA qualifiers Lipscomb, Butler and Alabama, the losses coming against Duke (in overtime), Gonzaga (in overtime) and Michigan. Texas then alternated wins and losses through much of its Big 12 schedule, picking up victories over TCU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma, while losing several close ones. In the end the Longhorns won three of their last five games to finish 8-10 in conference play, then won once in the Big 12 tournament to receive an at-large invitation to this NCAA tournament.

On the season, Texas played 19 games against teams that eventually made the Big Dance, with eight wins. The Longhorns also lost four games in OT.

Texas forward Mohamed Bamba, the 6-11 freshman who led the Big 12 in rebounding this year at 10 per game, missed recent action with a sore toe, but he's back for this game.

Why Nevada can cover the spread

The Wolf Pack started 8-0 this season, with wins over Rhode Island and Davidson, before losing back-to-back games to Texas Tech (in overtime) and TCU. Nevada then won 18 of its next 22 games to claim the Mountain West regular season title at 15-3 in conference play. The Wolf Pack then reached the title game of the Mountain West tournament before falling to San Diego State.

Nonetheless Nevada received an at-large bid to make the Big Dance for the second straight year.

On the season the Wolf Pack are 4-4 both SU and ATS against teams that made the tournament, with one loss coming in OT and two more by a total of nine points.

Smart betting pick

Nevada might own some statistical advantages, namely offensively, but Texas played a brutal schedule, and should be battle-tested. Also, the Wolf Pack lost their starting point guard a month ago. The betting value here lies with the Longhorns.

March Madness betting trends

Nevada is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games in March.

The total has gone over in three of Nevada's last four games against the Big 12.

Texas is 0-4 ATS in its last four games against the Mountain West.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.