Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

The ninth-ranked Duke Blue Devils (19-4) will try to rebound from another bad loss on Thursday when they visit the 21st-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (17-7). The Blue Devils are coming off an 81-77 road loss to the St. John's Red Storm as 10.5-point favorites Saturday, the third time this year they were upset by an opponent that closed as double-digit underdogs.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total is at 165.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College basketball betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 85.4-72.3, Tar Heels (College basketball picks on every game)

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Why the Blue Devils can cover the spread

Duke has responded to its previous three losses by blowing out its next foe by an average of more than 40 points. While that probably will not be the case in this rivalry game at Chapel Hill, the Blue Devils likely just need to win in order to cover the spread.

The Blue Devils have won six of the past eight meetings in this series with the Tar Heels straight up, according to the OddsShark College Basketball Database, going 5-2-1 against the spread. It also helps that North Carolina is not as good as last year's team despite coming into this matchup as the defending national champion.

Why the Tar Heels can cover the spread

The Tar Heels have lost three of their last four games both SU and ATS, but they blew out the Pittsburgh Panthers 96-65 as 23.5-point home favorites on Saturday for one of their best efforts of the season. They did not look past the Panthers and, junior Luke Maye total 26 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

Maye's upperclassman status should help him in going up against arguably the best big man in the country, Duke's Marvin Bagley III. If Maye can stay disciplined and out of foul trouble, he will be effective in neutralizing Bagley and can lead the Tar Heels to a victory.

Smart betting pick

Bagley and Wendell Carter Jr. both battled foul trouble at St. John's, which may be an issue for them the rest of the way as inexperienced freshmen. North Carolina has some veteran holdovers from last year's national-title team, most notably Maye and Joel Berry II. Look for them to be the difference as the Tar Heels prevail.

College basketball betting trends

The total has gone over in 13 of Duke's last 19 games.

Duke is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.

North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.