2018 NFL Mock Draft: Breaking Down Latest Projections for 1st-Round Prospects

Tyler ConwayJan 23, 2018

Mock draft season is officially in full swing. The looming specter of the Super Bowl will overtake the news cycle soon enough, but the week break allows for some looking forward for the 30 teams that won't be making the trip to Minneapolis.

Here's a look at how the first round could shake out.

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1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

Josh Rosen wants to play for the "right" team.

He just better hope that team is the Browns.

The former UCLA quarterback is the best pro prospect among his peers. The only real concern about him is his health and personality—the latter of which is rather nonsensical. Rosen's outspokenness makes him stand out as a leader unafraid to speak his mind.

That may turn off some coaches, but there's a quarterback about to play in his eighth Super Bowl in Tom Brady who isn't too shy about speaking either.

Cleveland can't afford to kick the can down the road anymore at quarterback. DeShone Kizer was an abject failure, the latest in a long line of disappointments over the last two decades. Rosen, at the bare minimum of his potential, would be an instant upgrade to competency.

Given how rare that is at the NFL level at this juncture, you pull the trigger and hope he can stay on the field.

2. New York Giants: Sam Darnold, QB, USC

According to Tom Rock of Newsday, the Giants appear to have a plan in place. Pat Shurmur will become the Giants' next head coach on Tuesday, and his first priority will be deciding what to do at quarterback.

Eli Manning is under contract but is 37 years old and coming off a season that saw him get benched—albeit in a move that ultimately got Ben McAdoo fired. Manning isn't the quarterback of the future here, nor should he be.

Case Keenum, whose performance in Minnesota arguably got Shumur this job, turns 30 in February and is a free agent in March. If Shurmur believes Keenum is the guy, then it's possible the Giants sign him to a big contract and push their chips to the middle of the table.

The smart move here, though, would be to take advantage of being at No. 2 and go all-in on Darnold. The USC product threw for 4,143 yards and 26 touchdowns against 13 interceptions last season. However, issues with turnovers affected his performance as the Trojans failed to compete for a national title. But all the physical tools are there, and the Giants could keep Manning on the roster to allow them to bring Darnold along slowly.

3. Indianapolis Colts: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

If you're wondering whether Saquon Barkley is on the Colts' radar, all you need to do is ask owner Jim Irsay.

"You put [Andrew Luck] on that field healed up, and all the sudden you put an Edgerrin James-type of player, maybe, with that bigger, faster, stronger, and let this man continue the job that he's already begun to do," Irsay told reporters. "This is going to be a special place to be and a special place to play."

Barkley is as close as you can get to an Edgerrin James-type in this class. He's a formidable three-down back, boasting a combination of power and speed that arguably makes him the best player in the entire draft. There wasn't anything he failed to do at Penn State, from breaking long gains, to converting short-yardage carries, to even returning kicks.

The Colts spent the last few years with the plodding Frank Gore toting the rock. Barkley would give Luck the biggest burst of energy he's ever had behind him.

4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans): Connor Williams, OT, Texas

Taking a quarterback at No. 1 leaves things open-ended for the Browns at No. 4. If Barkley's available, they could scoop him and have their quarterback and running back of the future lined up. In this scenario, though, they'll be choosing between Williams and going back to the defensive side of the ball.

Joe Thomas, the mainstay at the left tackle spot, is coming off the first major injury of his career and is 33 years old. Even if he has a few good years left in him—a stretch given how quickly linemen can fall off—he's not going to be around for the peak of Rosen.

Taking Williams, a natural left tackle who could play the right side for a year or two, sets up a succession plan should Thomas struggle to regain his form.

5. Denver Broncos: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

The Broncos may roll the dice on a quarterback here, but I have them pegged for a major splurge in free agency. That leaves their draft open ended, and going with the best player available seems like the obvious solution.

Fitzpatrick is a near-flawless defensive back prospect, able to play either safety or corner and versatile enough to do both as a rookie. The Broncos are going to need to replenish their defense with youth at some point, so they might as well start now.

The Rest

6. New York Jets: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State

8. Chicago Bears: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

9. San Francisco 49ers*: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

10. Oakland Raiders*: Derwin James, S, Florida State

11. Miami Dolphins: Arden Key, DE/OLB, LSU

12. Cincinnati Bengals: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

13. Washington: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

14. Green Bay Packers: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

15. Arizona Cardinals: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

16. Baltimore Ravens: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU