Fantasy Football Week 16 Workload Watch
If you've made it this far in the fantasy season, you probably have a good idea of what works and who should remain in your lineup regardless of matchups.
The same can be said for NFL teams in playoff contention. Barring injuries, you won't see them making sweeping changes to personnel. Over the last few weeks, the Detroit Lions made Theo Riddick their lead back with positive results. Even though Ameer Abdullah was healthy enough to return to action in Week 15, his role in the offense was significantly cut down, which destroyed his fantasy value.
The situation is the same for the Carolina Panthers. While Jonathan Stewart has had a handful of useful performances this season, there's no doubt Christian McCaffrey is their best back and should be featured accordingly. With the Panthers entrenched in a tight battle in the NFC South, McCaffrey will be busy over the final two weeks of the season, which makes him one of the most reliable fantasy RBs.
To learn more about what's going on in the backfields for the New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans, check out the Week 16 BS Meter. This Workload Watch covers eight other RB situations that have the most fantasy implications.
Baltimore Ravens
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Week 15 Workload Distribution
Collins entered Week 15 coming off the best performance of his career against the Pittsburgh Steelers with 120 yards and a TD on 18 carries in addition to two receptions for 46 yards. From Weeks 11-14, Collins was the No. 5 fantasy RB with 19.8 fantasy points per game and a total of 79.2 fantasy points. As the most reliable part of the Baltimore Ravens offense, Collins appeared to be a strong asset for the fantasy playoffs.
Unfortunately, Collins let all fantasy owners down with his worst rushing output of the season. Before Week 15, Collins had just four games with fewer than 50 rushing yards and only one game with fewer than 40 rushing yards.
Part of the poor performance was his lowest carry total since rushing just 10 times for 30 yards in Week 7. Collins' four-game scoring streak came to an end, as well, so his only saving grace was a season high in targets (eight) and receptions (five) for 33 yards.
The real head-scratcher is Allen's involvement. Before Week 15, his last game with double-digit carries came in Week 8. Even though he performed well, he's more of a thorn in the side of those relying on Collins in the fantasy playoffs. The team has trust in Allen, even if he's not as talented as Collins. Allen doesn't have fantasy value, but he's also not going away.
Despite Collins' disappointing production in Week 15, he's been too good and too important to the Ravens for most of the season. You should be able to fire him right back up with confidence in a favorable matchup with the Indianapolis Colts this weekend.
Carolina Panthers
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Week 15 Workload Distribution
Chasing points can be dangerous. Even though Stewart had his best performance of the season in Week 14 with 16 carries for 103 yards and three TDs, it was not indicative of the type of season he's had as a mostly underwhelming fantasy option. While it marked Stewart's second 100-yard rushing effort of the last month, it was only the second time he had more than 70 rushing yards and only the fourth time he had at least 60 rushing yards.
That's why it wasn't surprising for Stewart to come crashing back to earth in last week's win over the Green Bay Packers. With just 27 rushing yards, Stewart posted his third game of fewer than 30 rushing yards in the last six weeks. The up-and-down nature of his fantasy production is way too volatile to trust him as anything more than an RB3/flex, especially since he's been more down than up for most of the year.
Meanwhile, the most reliable option in the Panthers backfield had the best game of his young career.
Nine of McCaffrey's 19 touches came on the opening drive, which resulted in a seven-yard TD reception. On that drive, he carried four times for 16 yards and snared all five of his targets for 49 yards, including the score.
McCaffrey's 63 rushing yards accounted for his second-highest total of the season and his third 60-yard effort in the last six games. His 73 receiving yards was his second-highest total of the season and the 11th time he's had at least 30 receiving yards. He now has four TDs in the last five games.
McCaffrey will end up being a league-winner because of how active he is as a receiver in addition to the boost in his rushing production over the last two months. Start him without any hesitation in any format.
Cleveland Browns
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Week 15 Workload Distribution
The concerns with game flow for Crowell will never go away as long as he plays for one of the worst teams in the league. However, game flow is not a problem for Johnson since he gets most of his production as a receiver. Week 15 was a perfect example of what it's like to have Crowell or Johnson on your fantasy team.
For only the second time this season, Crowell failed to record double-digit carries, yet he had his fourth-best rushing performance of the year. Unfortunately, a busier role than normal as a receiver led to negative receiving yards, but it also tied the most receptions he's had in a game this season.
The Browns lost the game 27-10 after trailing 17-10 at the half and 27-10 after the third quarter, so game flow didn't help Crowell in the second half.
Typically, Johnson is saved by his production in the passing game. However, while he had another productive day as a receiver, it was his third rushing TD of the season that gave him the boost to help fantasy owners out in the playoffs.
For the seventh time in the last eight games, Johnson had at least four receptions. For the sixth time in the last eight games, he had at least 30 receiving yards. The rushing TD was a bonus and went along with his eighth game of at least 20 rushing yards.
Johnson outsnapped Crowell in nine of 15 games this season and holds a slight advantage in total snaps with 506 to Crowell's 469. Week 16 could be a busier one for Crowell since the Chicago Bears don't have the type of offense you'd expect to build a big lead.
Consider Johnson a low-end RB2 and Crowell a decent RB3/flex in this week's game against the Bears.
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Detroit Lions
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Week 15 Workload Distribution
Abdullah was down for two weeks. Initially, he was inactive for a neck injury, but in Week 14, he was scratched due to the neck injury and performance. The Detroit Lions didn't miss him during that two-game stretch, but they had him on the active roster for Week 15.
Instead of jumping right back into a significant role in the ground game, Abdullah had his second straight game with fewer than 10 carries. He was slightly busier as a receiver but was the third back in the pecking order behind Riddick and Green.
Riddick had his third straight game with at least eight carries and his highest rushing total of the last three weeks. Unfortunately, he failed to score a TD after finding the end zone three times in the previous two games.
Without the TD, Riddick couldn't make up for the lack of production in the receiving game, as he was unable to follow up the 11 receptions for 105 yards on 15 targets he posted in the last two games. Still, he led the backfield in snaps for the third straight week.
Green isn't doing enough to consider for your starting lineup, but his snap percentage was his highest of the season and significantly higher than Abdullah's. That indicates he's earned more trust from the coaching staff with the Lions in the midst of a battle for a playoff spot.
Even though Riddick suffered a wrist injury in Week 15, he practiced Wednesday and should play against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, according to Kyle Meinke of mlive.com. He's a solid RB2 this week.
Green Bay Packers
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Week 15 Workload Distribution
Aaron Rodgers' return posed the biggest change to the Green Bay Packers' backfield situation. A smaller change was how the touches were distributed between Williams and Jones, which was not for the better.
Williams had his lowest carry total and fewest rushing yards since taking over as the lead back in Week 10. He also failed to score for the first time in four games and was held without a target for the first time since Week 10.
Even though Williams has just one game with more than 67 rushing yards over the last six weeks, he's been able to make up for the lack of big rushing performances by scoring and receiving. Nothing went his way in Week 15, including game flow and a tough matchup with the Carolina Panthers.
Jones has been playing behind Williams for the last three weeks, so no one was banking on him for reliable fantasy production. He looked good on the few chances he had to run the ball, but it wasn't enough to make an impact. It wouldn't be surprising to see his role increase in Week 16, especially since the Packers are eliminated from playoff contention.
With Rodgers now on injured reserve, the team turns back to Brett Hundley in a tough matchup with the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday night. It's hard to be excited about Williams or Jones with little working in their favor. Williams is still the preferred option, but he's more of an RB3/flex.
New York Giants
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Week 15 Workload Distribution
It's hard to say the New York Giants are in evaluation mode because they've already fired their head coach and general manager, which means there's no one to evaluate for 2018 with a new regime taking over for next season. However, after seeing a lot of Darkwa for most of the season, Gallman seems to be getting a longer look in these final games.
For the second straight week, he had a significant lead in snap percentage over Darkwa and, to a lesser extent, Vereen. In those two games, Gallman had 20 carries for 98 yards to Darkwa's 19 carries for 36 yards and a TD.
Gallman has an even bigger advantage in the passing game. The last two weeks yielded 13 receptions for 80 yards on 16 targets. Vereen has eight receptions for 39 yards on nine targets in that time, while Darkwa has three receptions for 24 yards on six targets. Darkwa doesn't have any game with five targets, four receptions or 40 receiving yards. Gallman hit all those marks in each of the last two games.
The Giants have a below-average matchup with the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16, so it's not like you have to get Gallman in your lineup. But as an RB3 or a flex, he's worth a shot in PPR formats because of his increased role in the passing game.
Philadelphia Eagles
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Week 15 Workload Distribution
Even though the Philadelphia Eagles have been a balanced offense for most of the season, the expectation that Ajayi would take on a bigger role following Carson Wentz's season-ending injury was justified. However, not everything went to plan in what turned into a hard-fought victory over the New York Giants in Week 15.
Thanks to a poor performance by the Eagles defense, the Giants held a 20-7 lead less than two minutes into the second quarter. That put the Eagles in an unfamiliar and unexpected hole against an inferior team. That also meant Nick Foles would have to throw the Eagles back into the game, as opposed to relying on Ajayi and the ground game to help carry the offense.
The Eagles were able to battle back into the lead in the second quarter and went into halftime down 23-21. A field goal by Jake Elliott with 9:18 to go in the third quarter put the Eagles up for good en route to a 34-29 win.
Even though they won, this game didn't go according to plan for the Eagles. That might explain why they ran just 25 times with Blount, Ajayi, Clement and Kenjon Barner compared to 38 pass attempts from Foles.
Ajayi led the team in carries for the third straight week and hit double-digit fantasy points for the first time since his first game with the team back in Week 9. He also led the backfield in snap percentage for the third straight game and is the only Eagles RB to play at least 40 percent of the snaps in each of those games.
Ajayi is the clear leader in this backfield, so there could be a bigger game coming this week at home against the Oakland Raiders if the Eagles don't get off to another slow start.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Week 15 Workload Distribution
- Peyton Barber: 52.5% snaps, 13 carries, 53 yards, 0 TD, 3 targets, 3 receptions, 15 yards, 0 TD
- Charles Sims: 45.9% snaps, 0 carries, 4 targets, 4 receptions, 6 yards, 0 TD
- Jacquizz Rodgers: 3.3% snaps, 0 carries, 0 targets
- Doug Martin: inactive
Barber was expected to take over the backfield in Week 15 after Martin lost a fumble in Week 14 and didn't see a touch for the rest of the game. A week after rushing for 102 yards on 23 carries, Barber had 58 yards on 12 carries in the Week 14 loss to the Detroit Lions.
Any question about overtaking Martin in Week 16 was answered when Martin was a healthy scratch for violating a team rule. That allowed Barber to lead the way and play the most snaps of any Buccaneers RB for the third straight week.
In the last three games, Barber has 48 carries for 213 yards and eight receptions for 61 yards on eight targets. He played at least 44 percent of the snaps in each of those games.
Even though Martin is expected to return for Week 16, Barber should continue to lead the way when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit the road to face the Carolina Panthers. It's a tough matchup, so if you're considering Barber, he's a low-end RB3/flex at best.
Avoiding this backfield isn't a bad idea.
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