Top MLB Free Agents Who Are About to Have the Deepest Pockets
The trade market took center stage at last year's winter meetings when Chris Sale and Adam Eaton both changed teams in blockbuster deals.
There could be a few more big trades when this year's meetings get underway Monday in Orlando, Florida, but it's the largely stagnant free-agent market that figures to kick into high gear.
With that in mind, ahead are predictions about the seven biggest free-agent contracts that will be handed out at this year's winter meetings.
For reference, here's a look at the biggest signings from a year ago:
- NYY signs RP Aroldis Chapman (five years, $86 million).
- STL signs Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5 million).
- COL signs 1B/OF Ian Desmond (five years, $70 million).
- SF signs RP Mark Melancon (four years, $62 million).
- LAD signs SP Rich Hill (three years, $48 million).
- NYY signs DH Matt Holliday (one year, $13 million).
- TB signs C Wilson Ramos (two years, $12.5 million).
- TOR signs UT Steve Pearce (two years, $12.5 million).
- TEX signs CF Carlos Gomez (one year, $11.5 million).
On to the predictions.
7. RP Jake McGee
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Team: Houston Astros
Contract: Three years, $24 million
Outlook
It looks like Mike Minor will return to a starting role with the Texas Rangers, but the three-year, $28 million deal he signed Wednesday should still set the market for lefty relievers.
Following that signing, Jake McGee is the top southpaw option available in free agency.
The 31-year-old posted a 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 58-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 57.1 innings last season, tallying three saves and 20 holds as the primary setup man in an improved Colorado Rockies bullpen.
He pitches almost exclusively with his fastball, throwing it 92.9 percent of the time last season, and he's been more effective against right-handed hitters over the course of his career, so he's more than just a specialist.
Upgrading the relief corps is the Houston Astros' No. 1 priority—and finding a reliable left-hander, in particular, is atop the to-do list.
Swinging a trade for Brad Hand or Zach Britton is still an option, but with the market for McGee set to take off now Minor is off the board, they may not want to risk waiting around and missing out.
6. C Jonathan Lucroy
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Team: Colorado Rockies
Contract: Two years, $25 million (plus $15 million mutual option)
Outlook
Jonathan Lucroy did not have the contract year most were expecting.
Still, as Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote: "Overall, it wasn't close to the walk year he would have liked. But his all-around skills should still result in a decent payday."
The 31-year-old made a good impression during his two months with the Rockies, hitting .310/.429/.437 with 11 extra-base hits in 175 plate appearances while serving as a stabilizing force for the team's young pitching staff.
With Welington Castillo already signed on with the Chicago White Sox, Lucroy is the top catching option on the market, and the Rockies won't be alone in their pursuit of his services.
Heyman identified the Astros as another interested party.
Perhaps it was just lip service, but in September, Lucroy sounded open to the idea of returning to Colorado while talking with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post:
"It's been easy to fit in here. What I like is that this team is hungry and they all have the same goal in mind, and that's to win a championship. ... I'd absolutely [be interested] in coming back. As a free agent, you look at a lot of things. I look at things even more than money. I want to know what teams are going to be in there. I do not want to go to a team that's just going to be average. I want to go to a team this is going to be good. I want to contribute to a playoff team."
If bringing Lucroy back is a priority for the Rockies, they would be wise to move quickly.
5. RP Addison Reed
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Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Contract: Four years, $40 million
Outlook
If the St. Louis Cardinals whiff on signing Wade Davis and Greg Holland—which we are predicting will happen, as you'll see shortly—to whom will they turn to fill the ninth-inning void?
Tampa Bay Rays closer Alex Colome has been identified as a potential trade target, and free agent Brandon Morrow has also been linked to the team.
However, the best option might be Addison Reed.
While the 28-year-old has worked mostly as a setup man in recent years, he has 125 career saves to his credit, and he converted 19 of 21 saves chances for the New York Mets last season while filling in for Jeurys Familia.
He's also four years younger than both Davis and Holland without the injury history, and he won't require the substantial prospect haul it would take to pry Colome and his three years of team control away from the Rays.
It would likely take a four-year deal to sign Reed considering his strong recent performance and age relative to the rest of the high-end reliever market, and the Cardinals shouldn't think twice—even on the heels of that four-year, $30.5 million deal they gave Brett Cecil last winter.
Simply put, any team that's willing to make a serious run at trading for Giancarlo Stanton doesn't need to be bargain hunting for a closer.
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4. RP Greg Holland
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Team: Colorado Rockies
Contract: Four years, $56 million
Outlook
Greg Holland was every bit the dominant closer we saw during his time with the Kansas City Royals for the first half of last season with the Rockies:
- 23/23 SV, 1.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, .123 BAA
However, from the time he blew his first save of the year, June 15, through the conclusion of the regular season, he was a different pitcher entirely.
- 18/22 SV, 5.51 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, .238 BAA
How much of that had to do with the fact he missed the entire 2016 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and was still in the process of building his arm back up?
He comes with some obvious risk, but someone should be willing to offer up a four-year deal approaching the $62 million that Mark Melancon secured from the San Francisco Giants last offseason.
Here's betting that someone is the Rockies, who can point to an improved bullpen as perhaps the single biggest reason for their impressive 2017 turnaround.
Bringing back Holland would provide stability at the back end of what could wind up being a young relief corps, with Jake McGee and Pat Neshek also hitting free agency.
3. RP Wade Davis
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Team: Chicago Cubs
Contract: Four years, $64 million
Outlook
The Chicago Cubs filled one of their pitching needs on Thursday with the signing of starter Tyler Chatwood to a three-year, $38 million deal, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.
Next up on the shopping list will be bullpen help.
They will likely look to add multiple relievers before the offseason is over, but addressing the free agency of closer Wade Davis is the most pressing issue.
Davis, 32, converted 32 of 33 save chances with a 2.30 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 12.1 K/9 while earning a third consecutive trip to the All-Star Game after coming over in a trade with the Kansas City Royals last winter.
After a pair of disabled-list stints with forearm issues in 2016, he was able to avoid the injury bug this past season and is consequently set to cash in.
A fifth year probably won't be on the table given his age, but he will be able to use that four-year, $62 million deal Melancon signed as the starting point in negotiations.
After addressing the starting rotation with a mid-level option, there is no financial reason to think the Cubs won't be able to do everything in their power to bring Davis back.
They can't afford to let him get away.
2. 3B Mike Moustakas
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Team: Los Angeles Angels
Contract: Five years, $90 million
Outlook
Three things the Los Angeles Angels need: a new third baseman, better production from the left side of the plate and more middle-of-the-order power to support Mike Trout and Justin Upton.
Mike Moustakas checks all three boxes.
The 29-year-old slugged a Kansas City Royals franchise-record 38 home runs last season to take home AL Comeback Player of the Year honors. A torn ACL in 2016 limited him to just 27 games.
He's not without his shortcomings—most notably a 5.7 percent walk rate that resulted in a .314 on-base percentage—and there are other, cheaper options on the third-base market, including Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez.
However, neither of those players would address the need for more left-handed production.
Angels lefties could only muster a dismal .689 OPS with 57 home runs last season, and the bulk of that production came from right fielder Kole Calhoun (.725 OPS, 19 HR).
Moustakas is a Scott Boras client, so he won't be in any hurry to sign.
That being said, the Angels might feel compelled to make a splashy move if they wind up missing out on Shohei Ohtani, and Moustakas looks like the most sensible big-ticket target.
1. SP Yu Darvish
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Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract: Six years, $132 million, opt out after three years
Outlook
Just how aggressive is Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto going to be this offseason, as the team looks to snap a postseason drought that stretches all the way back to 2001?
Bob Dutton of Baseball America recently reported that the team is more likely to focus on shoring up the bullpen than adding another starter if they are able to land Japanese superstar Ohtani.
Here's what the rotation would look like with Ohtani:
- LHP James Paxton
- RHP Shohei Ohtani
- RHP Felix Hernandez
- RHP Mike Leake
- RHP Erasmo Ramirez/LHP Marco Gonzales
That is no doubt an improved staff from a year ago with Ohtani in the mix and a full season of Leake, but it's still far from great.
Yu Darvish would make it great.
The Mariners have seen plenty of the 31-year-old over the years, and bringing him aboard would only help Ohtani make the transition stateside. And if they don't sign Ohtani, adding someone of Darvish's caliber becomes even more paramount.
As for that contract prediction, it's in line with the six-year, $130 million deal Johnny Cueto received from the Giants two years ago and gives him an annual salary of $22 million.
If the Mariners hope to make a run at the Astros in the AL West or even a wild-card spot in a crowded AL playoff picture, Darvish could be the piece who pushes them over the top.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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